Numerous endorheic lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have shown a dramatic increase in total area since 1996. These expanding lakes are mainly located in the interior regions of the QTP, where permafrost is widely distributed. Despite significant permafrost degradation due to global warming, the impact of permafrost thawing on lake evolution in QTP has been underexplored. This study investigated the permafrost degradation and its correlation with lake area increase by selecting four lake basins (Selin Co, Nam Co, Zhari Namco, and Dangqiong Co) in QTP for analysis. Fluid-heat-ice coupled numerical models were conducted on the aquifer cross-sections in these four lake basins, to simulate permafrost thawing driven by rising surface temperatures, and calculate the subsequent changes in groundwater discharge into the lakes. The contribution of these changes to lake storage, which is proportional to lake area, was investigated. Numerical simulation indicates that from 1982 to 2011, permafrost degradation remained consistent across the four basins. During this period, the active layer thickness first increased, then decreased, and partially transformed into talik, with depths reaching up to 25 m. By 2011, groundwater discharge had significantly risen, exceeding 2.9 times the initial discharge in 1988 across all basins. This increased discharge now constitutes up to 17.67 % of the total lake water inflow (Selin Co). The dynamic lake water budget further suggests that groundwater contributed significantly to lake area expansion, particularly since 2000. These findings highlight the importance of considering permafrost thawing as a crucial factor in understanding the dynamics of lake systems in the QTP in the context of climate change.

来源平台：JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY