Global warming potentially increases precipitation and intensifies water exchange, thereby accelerating the hydrological cycle. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an Asian water tower in which the water budget varies and its anomaly exerts stress on resource availability. Few studies have quantified long-term water budgets across TP owing to scarcity of ground-based observations and uncertainties in remote sensing data. In this study, water budget components (i.e., precipitation, glacial melting [GM], evapotranspiration [ET], runoff, and soil moisture [SM] state) in TP are synthetically estimated for the past three decades. The water budget estimation benefits from a GM-coupled hydrological ensemble modeling, which is forced by nine precipitation products with seven from satellite methods. The results show that the ensemble modeling effectively captures the dynamics of runoff, ET, and terrestrial water storage. The long-term average annual water input (sum of precipitation and GM) was approximately 438 mm, with similar to 4 % contribution from GM, for which the annual ET and runoff take away was approximately 263 and 173 mm, respectively. From 1984 to 2015, the four water fluxes significantly increased with varying rates (2.3 mm/yr, precipitation; 0.9 mm/yr, GM; 1.5 mm/yr, ET; 1.1 mm/yr, runoff), which suggested an accelerating hydrological cycle. Particularly, increasing GM (similar to 5.8 mm/yr) in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains in southern TP induced high-yield runoff (>800 mm). These estimations aid in yielding robust solutions for water management in TP and neighboring regions. The accelerated hydrological cycle implies potential flooding risk and vulnerability of the hydrological system under climate change.

来源平台：JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY