中亚天山寒区水循环对气候变化的响应机理研究
沈永平
2008-01
项目
【英文摘要】More than 70% of water resources come from glacier-snow melting and rainfall of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, rivers are sensitive to changes of the cryosphere as global warming. On the basis of the strengthening field observation and investigation, documentation, and modeling, the project studies the climate change and water cycle trends in cold regions of the Tianshan Mountains, and clarifies mechanism of the water resource and water cycle response to climate change in the cryosphere in Xinjiang, completing the proposal research project, and achieving the expected goal, and we obtains the following progress: 1)Mapping a topographic map with scale of 1:5000 of Glacier No. 1 at Urumqi Rive, showing glacier area decreased by 15.6% during1962-2008. The mass balance of Glacier No. 1 have accelerated loss trends since 1985; 2) The horizontal components of net input of water vapor showed a decreasing trend, while the vertical component had an increasing trend during the period of 1978 to 2003, when global warming remarkable, leading to increased precipitation in mountainous areas, and the expansion of Tianshan mountain wetting island area, rivers discharges also increasing accordingly; 3) for the snow-dominated watershed, river hydrological processes response to climate warming result in the shift of the maximum flood peak discharge from June to May; the largest monthly runoff increment and summer runoff decreased significantly; for rivers with glacier-melting supply, hydrological process response to climate warming in the summer runoff significantly increased, increasing flooding volume of the flood period and the annual runoff; the glacier lake outburst floods may become more dangerous in Tianshan. For no glacier-melting supply rivers, runoff has decreasing trend, had impact significantly on security of water supply of the downstream, and drought exacerbated. Due to different changes in rivers fed by ice and snow melting water, and its corresponding water supply and flood safety management in the downstream had a significant impact, and need to adaptation the adjustment of hydrological processes, and the mitigation impact of climate change on water security in the Xinjiang.
【中文摘要】源于天山的河流占全疆水资源的70%以上,对全球升温和冰冻圈变化响应敏感. 通过野外考察、定点观测、资料整理并结合建立模型,研究了天山寒区的气候和水循环变化趋势,阐明了中亚天山寒区水资源与水循环对气候变化的响应机理,全面完成了原定的研究计划,达到了预期目标,并取得以下进展:1)获得了1:5000乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川地形图,1962-2008年冰川面积减小了15.6%。冰川物质平衡1985年以后有加速亏损趋势;2)气候变化使天山空中水汽水平方向净输入量减少,但垂直方向水汽循环显著加速,导致山区降水增加,天山湿岛向山麓两侧扩展,山区产流也发生相应变化;3)积雪补给的河流,水文过程对气候变化变暖的响应为最大径流月提前,夏季径流减少明显;以冰川融水补给的河流,水文过程的径流响应为夏季径流量明显增大,汛期洪水增多,年流量增加,天山地区的冰川湖突发洪水可能变得更加危险。无冰川补给河流的径流已出现减少趋势,对下游的供水安全产生明显影响,加剧了旱情发生。由于不同补给河流的水文过程变化,其相应对下游的水资源供给和洪水安全管理产生了重大影响,需要适应水文过程的调整,减缓气候变化对水资源安全的影响。