晚白垩世—古近纪重要“温室阶段”的气候特征及其驱动因素
全成
2014-01
项目
Global warming is one of the biggest environmental concerns, in which the rising content of atmospheric CO2 was once widely considered as the main contributor. However, in recent years, growing studies show that, solely by the greenhouse effect of CO2 itself, it appears far less to drive the temperature soaring up to the monitored magnitude. Similarly, mismatches between atmospheric CO2 and temperature in the geologic past are also increasingly detected. These facts strongly imply that, except for CO2, there must have been other and more powerful driving force. In the present study, we focus on the water vapor, another important greenhouse gas, which greenhouse effect doubles to that of CO2. Based on results of previous NSFC Project to the principal investigator, floras from the Taipinglinchang, Wuyun, and Dalianhe formations of Jiayin and adjacent Luobei counties are carefully selected in the present study to investigate the greenhouse effect of the water vapor. These 3 floras represent 3 important greenhouse stages of the Campanian, Selandian, and Lutetian, respectively. Temperature of each stage will be reconstructed by the leaf physiognomy analysis, while the corresponding paleo-CO2 will be estimated by Gingko leaf cuticles. Relational model between water vapor and temperature will be established in basis of data analysis on high-resolution modern climatic data. Then the model will be used in paleoclimate study to find out the contribution of water vapor to temperature changes. The final aim of this study is to determine if water vapor is the primary factor to climatic change, which will provide a new way to understand paleoclimate.
全球变暖是当前最受关注的环境问题之一,而大气CO2的持续上升曾被认为是导致温度增高的关键原因。但越来越多的研究显示,单独CO2的温室效应远不足以造成现有规模的增温。类似地,地史时期中CO2与温度的不匹配性也不断被发现。这些事实强烈暗示,除CO2之外,还存在其他更为主要的推动力。而水汽(water vapor)则是另一种重要的温室气体,且温室效应能力是CO2的两倍。本项目拟在青年基金基础上,进一步分析嘉荫太平林场组、乌云组和邻县萝北达连河组植物化石,分别代表坎潘期、塞兰特期、鲁帝特期等3个重要温室阶段。以被子植物叶相特征定量重建各阶段温度;以银杏气孔参数恢复古CO2,并查明其温室效应对温度变化的贡献率。同时,以高分辨率现代气候数据建立“水汽-温度”关系模型,整合应用于古气候分析,恢复古大气的水汽含量,揭示水汽温室效应对温度变化的贡献,从而确认影响温度变化的首要因素,为古气候研究提供新的思路。