喜马拉雅山中部跨境流域土地利用与覆被变化过程及其区域差异研究

科西河流域 土地利用与土地覆被变化 气候变化 驱动过程 区域分异
张镱锂 2014-01 项目
Land use and land cover change in high mountain areas is the most sensitive and an important aspect to global climate change. Koshi River Basin (KRB), a trans-boundary river basin in the middle of the Himalayas and at southern margin of Tibetan Plateau, was taken as our study area. According to investigation in regional integrated, typical types and typical regional, a unified classification system in the KRB will be constructed taking accounting of differences of land-cover classification systems in China and Nepal. Multi-phase remote sensing images at different spatial scales will be interpreted by references obtained from field survey in typical types and typical land-cover changes. These land-cover types and regions sensitive to climate change and their extents and degress will be extracted by spatial analysis methods at different scales. Incorporating territorial, climate and social-economic data into Partial Least Squares regression Model and Auto-Logistic regression model, the quantitative relationship between anthropogenic and natural effects on typical land-cover types and regions will be focused to analyze their spatial difference in the KRB. Using comparing analysis method between spatial buffer zones, the differences in land-cover change, spatial variation and its driving forces at diverse thematic scales will be further studies by comparing border regions in China and Nepal, border towns on both countries, and important traffic tunnels across two countries. By comparing the influence of different climatic conditions under similar social background on land-cover change, the effects of different cultures on these cover types will be found out. It will provide case study for alpine areas on LUCC research, and promote development of the world mountain research.
兴都-库什-喜马拉雅地区是全球典型脆弱山地区域,该区土地利用与土地覆被变化(LUCC)是全球气候变化最为敏感区域之一。本研究以位于喜马拉雅山中部山地垂直带谱最为完整的跨境流域-柯西河流域为研究区,通过不同空间尺度的地面调查,综合分析中尼两国在该流域的土地覆被类型分类系统的差异,建立该地区统一的分类标准,并通过对遥感数据解译获取多期不同分辨率土地覆被数据。基于不同尺度的空间分析方法,研究该地区对于气候变化敏感的土地覆被类型和区域及变化幅度;同时结合地形、气候和社会经济数据,应用偏最小二乘法以及逻辑斯蒂模型等,探讨该地区气候变化和人类活动对于LUCC影响的定量关系;利用空间缓冲带分析法,通过边境地区LUCC空间差异对比,分析不同社会经济、文化习俗对于LUCC的影响差异以及气候背景下不同社会条件对于覆被类型的影响。为高山地区LUCC研究提供案例,促进世界山地研究发展。