中高纬气候系统变化及气候预测

北大西洋涛动 东亚季风 年际和年代际变化 气候预测 机制
孙建奇 2016-01 项目
I have performed systematic studies in the area of mid-to-high latitude climate system variation and climate prediction. The innovative results can be summarized as follows: (1) We have studied the variation and impact of the climate system over mid-to-high latitudes: revealing the decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the possible mechanism, and revealing the impact of summer North Atlantic Oscillation on the Northern Hemispheric summer climate; revealing the physical processes of the impact of the Antarctic Oscillation on monsoons, and proposing the mechanism of the tropical bridge; revealing new features of the East Asian climate extremes and the possible influential factors over mid-to-high latitudes. (2) We have studied the predictability of the mid-to-high latitude climate systems and developed the prediction methods: proposing a new theme to improve the dynamical prediction of the Arctic Oscillation and revealing a new predictor for the prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation; developing some new prediction models, which have clear physical basis and can significantly improve the regional and global climate prediction. I have published and been accepted 62 papers (22 as the first author) in peer-reviewed scientific journals, 42 (16 as the first author) of which have been or will be published in SCI journals. I was given the National Natural Science Awards of China (second class) in 2014. All the published papers have been cited 429/228 (362/238 by other researchers) times in SCI/CSCD journals.
申请人系统且集中地开展了中高纬气候系统变化及气候预测研究,取得的创新性成果主要有:1)开展中高纬气候系统的变化及影响研究:揭示了夏季北大西洋涛动模态的年代际变化特征,并揭示了它对北半球气候的影响及机理;揭示了南极涛动影响季风的物理过程,提出“热带桥”的机制;揭示出东亚极端气候新的变异特征及中高纬影响因子;2)开展中高纬气候系统的可预测性研究,发展气候预测方法:提出改进北极涛动动力预测的新思路;提出太平洋年代际振荡的预测新因子;从方法上,充分利用气候系统变化及影响研究成果,研制和建立了具有优异效能的统计降尺度方法,改进区域和全球气候的动力预测。已发表和接受论文62篇(SCI论文42篇),其中第一作者论文22篇(SCI 论文16篇)。2014年荣获国家自然科学二等奖(排名第三)。SCI总引429次(完全他引228次),CSCD总引362次(完全他引238次)。