Study region: The Qinghai Lake basin, including China's largest saltwater lake, is located on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Study focus: This study focuses on the hydrological changes between the past (1971-2010) and future period (2021-2060) employing the distributed hydrological model in the Qinghai Lake basin. Lake evaporation, lake precipitation, and water level changes were estimated using the simulations driven by corrected GCM data. The impacts of various factors on the lake water levels were meticulously quantified. New hydrological insights: Relative to the historical period, air temperatures are projected to rise by 1.72 degrees C under SSP2-4.5 and by 2.21 degrees C under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and the future annual precipitation will rise by 34.7 mm in SSP2-4.5 and 44.1 mm in SSP5-8.5 in the next four decades. The ground temperature is projected to show an evident rise in the future period, which thickens the active layer and reduces the frozen depth. The runoff into the lake is a pivotal determinant of future water level changes, especially the runoff from the permafrost degradation region and permafrost region dominates the future water level changes. There will be a continuous rapid increase of water level under SSP5-8.5, while the water level rising will slow down after 2045 in the SSP2-4.5 scenario. This study provides an enhanced comprehension of the climate change impact on QTP lakes.
