PurposeThis paper aims to develop a probabilistic framework which combines uncoupled cofferdam stability analysis, random forest and Monte Carlo simulation for cofferdam reliability analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe finite element method and limit equilibrium method are used to calculate the seepage field and stability of cofferdam, respectively. Sufficient training and validating random samples are generated to obtain a random forest surrogate model with acceptable accuracy. The calibrated random forest model combined with MCS is used to conduct cofferdam reliability analysis. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a typical cofferdam model.FindingsThe numerical simulation results demonstrate that a larger pore water pressure leads to a lower stability of the cofferdam and vice versa. The increase in the slope angle significantly reduces the stability of cofferdam on the corresponding side, while the stability of cofferdam on the other side is mainly affected by the internal pore water pressure. The increase in the width and height of the reverse pressure platform significantly enhances the stability of cofferdam, and the changes in the angle of the reverse pressure platform affect the stability of cofferdam to some extent. The probability of failure (Pf) of cofferdam increases gradually with increasing vertical and horizontal scales of fluctuation, coefficient of variation, and cross-correlation coefficient when the degradation degree of soil properties is low. It is worth noting that the effect of vertical and horizontal scales of fluctuation, coefficient of variation, and cross-correlation coefficient on the Pf of cofferdam changes significantly when degradation coefficient decreases to a critical value.Practical implicationsA geotechnical engineer could use the proposed method to perform cofferdam reliability analysis.Originality/valueThe reliability of cofferdam can be efficiently and accurately studied using the proposed framework.
