The Yushenfu mining area has special hosting conditions, and the high-intensity coal mining is likely to cause surface cracks and negative impacts on the ecological environment. To accurately predict the location and depth of surface cracks, this paper proposed a prediction method that uses horizontal deformation as the key parameter, incorporating the stress-deformation characteristics of the loose layer. In this paper, the Yushenfu mining area was selected as the study area, the prediction formula of horizontal deformation was optimized and the Active Phase of the subsidence process was classified into two stages. A mechanical model of the wedge-shaped loose layer was established, combining this with the mechanical properties of the surface loose layer in Yushenfu mining area, a prediction method for the location and depth of surface crack was provided. Using the 112201 working face as a case study, the influence of seasonal rainfall on soil strength properties was considered. The results demonstrate that the optimized horizontal deformation formula has better performance compared with traditional calculations, and the accuracy of the method was verified and validated through on-site observations. The research provides an effective approach for predicting the location and depth of mining-induced surface cracks in the Yushenfu mining area.
