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The objective of this study was to evaluate the applicability of soil pH and chlorophyll content as predictive indicators of damage in paddy fields affected by HCl spills, based on causal relationships. Five doses of HCl (e.g., 1, 50, 100, 200, and 500-fold of PNEC) were added to the paddy mesocosm during the rice heading stage. In the 7th week after the acid addition, rice grain quality (e.g., 1000-grain weight and filled grain ratio), soil microbial diversity (e.g., Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) and Shannon index), and soluble nutrients (e.g., NH4+, NO3-, SiO2, P2O5, and basic cations) were measured. Causal relationships among variables were analyzed using the Partial Least Square Path Model (PLS-PM). At the dose of 500xPNEC, all rice plants lodged when pH < 4. At 100xPNEC and 200xPNEC, the number of immature grains increased, resulting in a reduction in grain quality of over 18%. At 200xPNEC, the microbial OTUs and the Shannon index decreased by 30%. Notably, the proportion of Planctomycetes, the dominant phylum in the control soil, decreased. The reduction of Planctomycetes led to excessive NH4+ accumulation in the soil, which leads to an undesirable increase of chlorophyll content thereby deteriorating grain quality. The causal relationship suggests that information of soil pH and leaf chlorophyll can aid us in predicting damage for grain quality and microbial diversity.

来源平台：BULLETIN OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION AND TOXICOLOGY