The Pacific Northwest Heat Wave of 25-30 June 2021: Synoptic/Mesoscale Conditions and Climate Perspective

Mesoscale processes Extreme events Synoptic-scale processes Mesoscale systems Mesoscale forecasting
["Mass, Clifford","Ovens, David","Christy, John","Conrick, Robert"] 2024-02-01 期刊论文
(2)
An unprecedented heat wave occurred over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada on 25-30 June 2021, resulting in all-time temperature records that greatly exceeded previous record maximum temperatures. The impacts were substantial, including several hundred deaths, thousands of hospitalizations, a major wildfire in Lytton, British Columbia, Canada, and severe damage to regional vegetation. Several factors came together to produce this extreme event: a record-breaking midtropospheric ridge over British Columbia in the optimal location, record-breaking midtropospheric temperatures, strong subsidence in the lower atmosphere, low-level easterly flow that produced downslope warming on regional terrain and the removal of cooler marine air, an approaching low-level trough that enhanced downslope flow, the occurrence at a time of maximum insolation, and drier-than-normal soil moisture. It is shown that all-time-record temperatures have not become more frequent and that annual high temperatures only increased at the rate of baseline global warming. Although anthropogenic warming may have contributed as much as 1 degrees C to the event, there is little evidence of further amplification from increasing greenhouse gases. Weather forecasts were excellent for this event, with highly accurate predictions of the extreme temperatures. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: This paper describes the atmospheric evolution that produced an extreme heat wave over the Pacific Northwest during June 2021 and puts this event into historical perspective.
来源平台:WEATHER AND FORECASTING