The Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) is located on the Tibetan Plateau, within a transitional zone between seasonally frozen ground and continuous permafrost. Over 70 % of the region is predominantly covered by alpine grasslands, a vulnerable ecosystem increasingly threatened by ongoing permafrost degradation. This study utilized satellite data to analyze permafrost degradation by measuring active layer thickness (ALT) and the soil non-frozen period (NFP), and to investigate their impacts on alpine grassland growth. Results showed significant permafrost degradation from 2000 to 2020, with ALT thickening at a rate of 7.79 cm/decade (p < 0.05) and NFP lengthening by 1.1 days/yr (p < 0.05). Simultaneously, grassland vegetation exhibited a significant greening trend (0.0014 yr(-1), p < 0.01). Using the partial least squares (PLS) regression method, the study evaluated the relationships between grassland dynamics and permafrost degradation, while jointly accounting for climate variables (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration). ALT thickening was the dominant explanatory variable for grassland growth in 11.09 % of the region, and it was positively correlated in relatively cold western and alpine areas, but negatively correlated in the relatively warm eastern and central regions. NFP extension was the dominant explanatory variable for grassland growth in 10.38 % of the region, although its positive correlation weakened as climate conditions transitioned from relatively cold-dry to relatively warm-wet. Although permafrost degradation was positively correlated with grassland greening in relatively cold regions, the diminishing benefit of NFP extension and the adverse effects of ALT thickening may increasingly undermine grassland stability in relatively warm regions under further climate warming.
