Climate change is reshaping the risk landscape for natural gas pipelines, with landslides emerging as a major driver of technological accidents triggered by natural hazards (Natech events). Conventional Natech risk models rarely incorporate climate-sensitive parameters such as groundwater levels and soil moisture, limiting their capacity to capture evolving threats. This study develops a probabilistic model that explicitly links climate-driven landslide susceptibility to pipeline vulnerability, providing a quantitative basis for assessing pipeline failure probability under different emission projection scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulations across five regions in China, the results show that under high-emission pathways (SSP5-8.5), pipeline failure probability in summer increases dramatically. For example, from 0.320 to 0.943 in Xinjiang, 0.112 to 0.220 in Sichuan, and 0.087 to 0.188 in Hainan. In cold regions, winter failure probability more than doubles, rising from 0.206 to 0.501 in Heilongjiang and from 0.235 to 0.488 in Beijing. These shifts reveal an overall increase in risk, intensification of seasonal contrasts, and, in some areas, a reconfiguration of high-risk periods. Sensitivity analysis highlights groundwater levels and soil moisture as the dominant drivers, with regional differences shaped by precipitation regimes, permafrost thaw, and typhoon impacts. Building on these insights, this study proposes an AI-based condition-monitoring framework that integrates real-time climate and geotechnical data to support adaptive early warning and safety management.

Rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere threatens ancient permafrost carbon. Once thawed, permafrost carbon may migrate to surface waters. However, the magnitude of permafrost carbon processed by northern freshwater remains uncertain. Here, we compiled '1800 radiocarbon data of aquatic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Arctic and Qinghai -Tibet Plateau (QTP) to explore the fate of permafrost carbon under climate warming over the past 30 years. We showed that the contribution of aged carbon has significantly increased since 2015. Approximately 70 % of DOC and POC was derived from aged carbon for QTP rivers. In Arctic waters, an average of '67 % of POC was derived from aged carbon, however, '75 % of DOC was derived from modern carbon, mainly due to low temperatures and protection by vegetation limiting the export of aged DOC. For both regions, DOC 14 C age was positively correlated with the active layer thickness, whereas the POC 14 C age was positively correlated with the mean annual ground temperature, suggesting that gradual thaw accelerated the mobilization of aged DOC while abrupt thaw facilitated the export of aged POC. Furthermore, POC 14 C age was positively correlated with the soil organic carbon density, which was attributed to well-developed pore networks facilitated aged carbon output. This study suggests that permafrost carbon release is affected by both permafrost thermal properties and soil organic carbon density, which should be considered in evaluation of permafrost carbon -climate feedback.

Black carbon (BC) mixed with non-BC components strongly absorbs visible light and leads to uncertainty in assessing the absorption enhancement (Eabs) and thus radiative forcing. Traditional Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) combined with the leading-edge only fitting (the only-SP2 method) derives BC's mixing states through Mie scattering calculations. However, errors exist in retrieved optical diameter (Dopt) and MR due to the assumption of the ideal spherical core-shell structure and the selection of the calculation parameters like density and refractive index (RI) of the components. Here, we employed a custom-developed tandem CPMA-SP2 system, which classifies fixed-mass BC to characterize the mixing state, then compared with the only-SP2 method in quantifying the mixing state and Eabs. The field measurements show that the SP2 demonstrates variability in assessing the mixing state of BC in different aging states. The thickly-coated particles with small core approaching the internally mixed state are more sensitive to the change of calculated RI. The Dopt decreases with the RI increasing, indicating that this method accurately measures both Dopt and Eabs when a reasonable refractive index is selected for calculation. However, for thinly-coated particles with moderate or large core, this method results in significant deviations in the computed Eabs (errors up to 15 %). These deviations may be caused by the various shapes of BC and systematic errors. Our results provide valuable insights into the accuracy of the SP2-retrieved Dopt and MR based on Mie calculations and highlight the importance of employing advanced techniques for further assessment of BC's mixing state.

Permafrost soils contain approximately twice the amount of carbon as the atmosphere and this carbon could be released with Arctic warming, further impacting climate. Mosses are major component of Arctic tundra ecosystems, but the environmental drivers controlling heat penetration though the moss layer and into the soil and permafrost are still debated, especially at fine spatial scales where microtopography impacts both vegetation and soil moisture. This study measured soil temperature profiles (1-15 cm), summer thaw depth, water table depth, soil moisture, and moss thickness at a fine spatial scale (2 m) together with meteorological variables to identify the most important controls on the development of the thaw depth during two Arctic summers. We found a negative relationship between the green moss thickness (up to 3 cm) and the soil temperatures at 15 cm, suggesting that mosses insulated the soil even at high volumetric water contents (>70%) in the top 5 cm. A drier top (2-3 cm) green moss layer better insulated deep (15 cm) soil layers by reducing soil thermal conductivity, even if the moss layers immediately below the top layer were saturated. The thickness of the top green moss layer had the strongest relationships with deeper soil temperatures, suggesting that the top layer had the most relevant role in regulating heat transfer into deeper soils. Further drying of the top green moss layer could better insulate the soil and prevent permafrost thawing, representing a negative feedback on climate warming, but damage or loss of the moss layer due to drought or fire could reduce its insulating effects and release carbon stored in the permafrost, representing a positive feedback to climate warming.

Large-scale wildfires are essential sources of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC), affecting aerosol-induced radiative forcing. This study investigated the impact of two wildfire plumes (Plume 1 and 2) transported to Moscow on the optical properties of BC and BrC during August 2022. During the wildfires, the total light absorption at 370 nm (b(abs_370nm)) increased 2.3-3.4 times relative to background (17.30 +/- 13.98 Mm(-)(1)), and the BrC contribution to total absorption increased from 14 % to 42-48 %. BrC was further partitioned into primary (BrCPri) and secondary (BrCSec) components. Biomass burning accounted for similar to 83-90 % of BrCPri during the wildfires. The b(abs_370nm) of BrCPri increased 5.6 times in Plume 1 and 11.5 times in Plume 2, due to the higher prevalence of peat combustion in Plume 2. b(abs_370nm) of BrCSec increased 8.3-9.6 times, driven by aqueous-phase processing, as evidenced by strong correlations between aerosol liquid water content and b(abs_370nm) of BrCSec. Daytime b(abs_370nm) of BrCSec increased 7.6 times in Plume 1 but only 3.6 times in Plume 2, due to more extensive photobleaching, as indicated by negative correlations with oxidant concentrations and longer transport times. The radiative forcing of BrCPri relative to BC increased 1.8 times in Plume 1 and Plume 2. In contrast, this increase for BrCSec was 3.4 times in Plume 1 but only 2.3 times in Plume 2, due to differences in chemical processes, which may result in higher uncertainty in its radiative forcing. Future work should prioritize elucidating both the emissions and atmospheric processes to better quantify wildfire-derived BrC and its radiative forcing.

Soil organic matter (SOM) stability in Arctic soils is a key factor influencing carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the context of climate change. Despite numerous studies on carbon stocks in the Arctic, a significant knowledge gap remains regarding the mechanisms of SOM stabilization and their impact on the quantity and quality of SOM across different tundra vegetation types. The main aim of this study was to determine SOM characteristics in surface horizons of permafrost-affected soils covered with different tundra vegetation types (pioneer tundra, arctic meadow, moss tundra, and heath tundra) in the central part of Spitsbergen (Svalbard). Physical fractionation was used to separate SOM into POM (particulate organic matter) and MAOM (mineral-associated organic matter) fractions, while particle-size fractionation was applied to evaluate SOM distribution and composition in sand, silt, and clay fractions. The results indicate that in topsoils under heath tundra POM fractions dominate the carbon and nitrogen pools, whereas in pioneer tundra topsoils, the majority of the carbon and nitrogen are stored in MAOM fractions. Moreover, a substantial proportion of SOM is occluded within macro-and microaggregates. Furthermore, the results obtained from FTIR analysis revealed substantial differences in the chemical properties of individual soil fractions, both concerning the degree of occlusion in aggregates and across particle size fractions. This study provides clear evidence that tundra vegetation types significantly influence both the spatial distribution and chemical composition of SOM in the topsoils of central Spitsbergen.

Assessing long-term changes in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) together with Aerosol Radiative Forcing Efficiency (ARFE, defined as radiative forcing per unit visible AOD) provides critical insight into the evolving role of different aerosol species in regional climate forcing. In this study, we analyse two decades of AOD trends (2001-2020) across eight climatically diverse regions using a multivariate regression framework, and quantify species-specific radiative effects with the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model. The regions were chosen to represent contrasting trends in total AOD. Our results show that sulfate aerosols, which account for the largest share of AOD over India (similar to 36-45 %), are the primary driver of increasing AOD and associated atmospheric warming. Black carbon (BC), although contributing only a minor fraction to total AOD (2-10 %), emerges as the dominant warming agent across most regions, with particularly strong forcing signals over the Middle East. In contrast, sea-salt (SS) aerosols exert the largest cooling influence, most prominently over the Southern African (SAF) region, partially offsetting warming from absorbing species. Europe, despite an overall decline in AOD, exhibits a slight increase in SS that sustains a regional cooling effect. These findings demonstrate that species composition, vertical distribution, and optical properties govern ARFE more strongly than the total AOD magnitude alone. By linking AOD trends with species-resolved radiative forcing efficiency across multiple regions, this study advances the interpretability of ARFE as a climate indicator and highlights its potential to inform policy-relevant assessment of aerosol-driven warming and cooling.

Recent climate warming has accelerated permafrost thaw and dynamics of thermokarst lakes (TLs) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Yet, owing to the lack of long-term monitoring of TLs, our understanding of lake evolution processes and their driving factors remains uncertain. Here, using the global surface water product and timeseries Landsat imagery, we identified 58,538 TLs (0.01-3 km2) and determined the primary occurrence year of lake changes from 1990 to 2022. Our results indicated that TLs on the TP are primarily located in the central inland region, over 82 % of lakes experienced area expansion, and only 15 % in the northwest show decrease in area. Annual number of lake expansion peaked in 2016, whereas lake shrinkage was most common in 2019. The calculated lake area errors, field investigations, and validation of lake disturbance time demonstrated high accuracy and consistency. We applied the optimal machine learning regression model to distinguish the different drivers for lake expansion and shrinkage. The topographic and climatic factors are primary drivers for lake expansion, while differences in evaporation trend and soil temperature trend might contribute to lake shrinkage. This study highlights the vulnerability of permafrost on the TP to climate change, which can contribute to carbon sequestration estimation and infrastructure maintenance.

The critical role of light-absorbing aerosol black carbon (BC) in modifying the Earth's atmosphere and climate system warrants detailed characterization of its microphysical properties. The present study examines the BC microphysical properties (size distributions and mixing state) and their impact on the light-absorption characteristics over a semi-urban tropical coastal location in Southern Peninsular India. The measurements of refractory BC (rBC) properties, carried out using the single particle soot photometer during 2018-2021, covering four distinct air mass conditions (Marine, Continental, Mixed-1, and Mixed-2), were used for this purpose. These were supported by measurements of non-refractory submicron particulate matter (NR-PM1) mass loadings and the core-shell Mie theory model for BC-containing particles. The results suggested that the BC particles exhibited varying sizes (mass median diameters from 0.181 +/- 0.079 mu m to 0.202 +/- 0.064 mu m) and relative coating thicknesses (RCT) (1.3-1.6) under distinct air mass conditions. These characteristics reflected varying source/sink strengths, aging processes of BC, and potential condensable coating material. The aerosol system during the Marine air mass period has lower BC (similar to 0.67 +/- 0.57 mu g m(-3)) and NR-PM1 (12.06 +/- 10.81 mu g m(-3)) mass concentrations, and the lowest RCT on BC (similar to 1.34 +/- 0.14). However, the other periods with continental influence depicted significant coatings on BC (mean RCT >1.5). The coatings on BC particles exhibited daytime enhancement, driven by photochemically produced condensable material, a contrasting diurnal pattern to that of other BC properties. Interestingly, the RCT on BC increased and/or remained invariant with increasing relative humidity (RH) until RH 85 %), indicating the potential role of secondary organics as coatings. The changes in the BC mixing state resulted in a significant alteration to its light-absorption properties. The mean light-absorption enhancement of BC (compared to uncoated BC) ranged from 1.36 +/- 0.14 for the Marine air mass periods to 1.58 +/- 0.15 for the Continental air mass periods, whereas the overall mass absorption cross-sections of BC varied between 7.91 +/- 0.91 to 9.03 +/- 0.84 m(2)/g at 550 nm. The key implication of this study is that changes to the BC mixing state, caused by multiple underlying processes unique to tropical atmospheric conditions, can lead to a significant enhancement in its light-absorption characteristics, which can lead to a notable increase in the positive radiative forcing of BC.