Pollutant emissions in China have significantly decreased over the past decade and are expected to continue declining in the future. Aerosols, as important pollutants and short-lived climate forcing agents, have significant but currently unclear climate impacts in East Asia as their concentrations decrease until mid-century. Here, we employ a well-developed regional climate model RegCM4 combined with future pollutant emission inventories, which are more representative of China to investigate changes in the concentrations and climate effects of major anthropogenic aerosols in East Asia under six different emission reduction scenarios (1.5 degrees C goals, Neutral-goals, 2 degrees C -goals, NDC-goals, Current-goals, and Baseline). By the 2060s, aerosol surface concentrations under these scenarios are projected to decrease by 89%, 87%, 84%, 73%, 65%, and 21%, respectively, compared with those in 2010-2020. Aerosol climate effect changes are associated with its loadings but not in a linear manner. The average effective radiative forcing at the surface in East Asia induced by aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions will diminish by 24% +/- 13% by the 2030s and 35% +/- 13% by the 2060s. These alternations caused by aerosol reductions lead to increases in near-surface temperatures and precipitations. Specifically, aerosol-induced temperature and precipitation responses in East Asia are estimated to change by -78% to -20% and -69% to 77%, respectively, under goals with different emission scenarios in the 2060s compared to 2010-2020. Therefore, the significant climate effects resulting from substantial reductions in anthropogenic aerosols need to be fully considered in the pathway toward carbon neutrality.

The NCAR Community Earth System Model is used to study the influences of anthropogenic aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). We perform two sets of 30-year simulations subject to the prescribed perpetual SST annual cycle. One is triggered by the year 2000 climatology anthropogenic aerosol emissions data over the Indian Peninsula (referred to as AERO), and the other one is by the year 1850 (referred to as CTL). Only aerosol direct effects are included in the experiments. In our results, the transition of ISM in AERO relative to the CTL exhibits a similar ensemble-mean onset date with a larger spread, and more abrupt onset in late spring, and an earlier but more gradual withdrawal in early fall. The aerosols-induced circulation changes feature an upward motion over the northeastern Indian Peninsula and strengthened anticyclonic circulation over the Arabia Sea in the pre-monsoon season, and a northward shift of monsoon flow in the developed monsoon period along with strengthened local meridional circulation over northern India. The strengthened anticyclonic circulation over Arabia Sea caused a 16% increase in natural dust transport from the Middle East in the pre-monsoon season. The elevated aerosol heating over Tibet causes stronger ascending motion in the pre-monsoon period that leads to earlier and more abrupt ISM onset. The earlier monsoon withdrawal is attributed to the aerosol-induced anticyclonic flow within 10 & DEG;-25 & DEG;N and cyclonic flow within 0 & DEG;-10 & DEG;N over eastern India and Bay of Bengal that resemble the ISM seasonal transition in September.

Aerosol mixtures, which are still unclear in current knowledge, may cause large uncertainties in aerosol climate effect assessments. To better understand this research gap, a well-developed online coupled regional climate-chemistry model is employed here to investigate the influences of different aerosol mixing states on the direct interactions between aerosols and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The results show that anthropogenic aerosols have high-level loadings with heterogeneous spatial distributions in East Asia. Black carbon aerosol loading accounts for more than 13% of the totals in this region in summer. Thus, different aerosol mixing states cause very different aerosol single scattering albedos, with a variation of 0.27 in East Asia in summer. Consequently, the sign of the aerosol instantaneous direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere is changed, varying from - 0.95 to + 1.50 W/m(2) with increasing internal mixing aerosols. The influence of aerosol mixtures on regional climate responses seems to be weaker. The EASM circulation can be enhanced due to the warming effect of anthropogenic aerosols in the lower atmosphere, which further induces considerable aerosol accumulation associated with dynamic field anomaly, decrease in rainfall and so on, despite aerosol mixtures. However, this interaction between aerosols and the EASM will become more obvious if the aerosols are more mixed internally. Additionally, the differences in aerosol-induced EASM anomalies during the strongest and weakest monsoon index years are highly determined by the aerosol mixing states. The results here may further help us better address the environmental and climate change issues in East Asia.

To establish the direct climatic and environmental effect of anthropogenic aerosols in East Asia in winter under external, internal, and partial internal mixing (EM, IM and PIM) states, a well-developed regional climate-chemical model RegCCMS is used by carrying out sensitive numerical simulations. Different aerosol mixing states yield different aerosol optical and radiative properties. The regional averaged EM aerosol single scattering albedo is approximately 1.4 times that of IM. The average aerosol effective radiative forcing in the atmosphere ranges from -0.35 to +1.40 W/m(2) with increasing internal mixed aerosols. Due to the absorption of black carbon aerosol, lower air temperatures are increased, which likely weakens the EAWM circulations and makes the atmospheric boundary more stable. Consequently, substantial accumulations of aerosols further appear in most regions of China. This type of interaction will be intensified when more aerosols are internally mixed. Overall, the aerosol mixing states may be important for regional air pollution and climate change assessments. The different aerosol mixing states in East Asia in winter will result in a variation from 0.04 to 0.11 K for the averaged lower air temperature anomaly and from approximately 0.45 to 2.98 mu g/m(3) for the aerosol loading anomaly, respectively, due to the different mixing aerosols.

The Early 20th Century Warming (ETCW) in the northern high latitudes was comparable in magnitude to the present-day warming yet occurred at a time when the growth in atmospheric greenhouse gases was rising significantly less than in the last 40 years. The causes of ETCW remain a matter of debate. The key issue is to assess the contribution of internal variability and external natural and human impacts to this climate anomaly. This paper provides an overview of plausible mechanisms related to the early warming period that involve different factors of internal climate variability and external forcing. Based on the vast variety of related studies, it is difficult to attribute ETCW in the Arctic to any of major internal variability mechanisms or external forcings alone. Most likely it was caused by a combined effect of long-term natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific with a contribution of the natural radiative forcing related to the reduced volcanic activity and variations of solar activity as well as growing greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic emissions.

There have been extensive studies on poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and the associated poleward shift of subtropical dry zones in the past decade. In the present study, we study the trends in the width and strength of the Hadley cells, using currently available simulation results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-6 (CMIP6), and compare the trends with that in CMIP5 simulations. Our results show that the total annual-mean trend in the width of the Hadley cells is 0.13 degrees +/- 0.02 degrees per decade over 1970-2014 in CMIP6 historical All-forcing simulations. It is almost the same as that in CMIP5. The trend in the strength of the Northern-Hemisphere (NH) cell shows much greater weakening in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, while the strength trend in the Southern-Hemisphere (SH) cell shows slight strengthening. Single-forcing simulations demonstrate that increasing greenhouse gases cause widening and weakening of both the NH and SH Hadley cells, while anthropogenic aerosols and stratospheric ozone changes cause weak strengthening trends in the SH cell. CMIP6 projection simulation results show that both the widening and weakening trends increase with radiative forcing. (C) 2020 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is the most important aerosol contributor to global warming. However, there is a lack of understanding about the climate impact of BC aerosols because of systematic discrepancies between model and observation estimates of light absorption enhancements (Eabs) in atmospheric processes after emissions, and such discrepancies are transferred directly into large uncertainties of aerosol radiative forcing assessments. In this study, we quantify Eabs of atmospheric BC aerosols with diverse particle morphology distributions using a multi-dimensional aerosol model. We show that current widely used Mie method may overestimate BC Eabs by similar to 50% because variations in particle morphology are not considered. Although absorption calculation can be improved by including complex particle morphology and heterogeneity in composition, we find that neglect of the diverse particle morphology distributions in modeling may lead to 15% similar to 30% relative deviations on Eabs estimations of BC aerosol ensembles. The results thus imply that particle morphology distribution should be included in models to accurately represent the radiative effects of BC aerosols.

Influences of the mixing treatments of anthropogenic aerosols on their effective radiative forcing (ERF) and global aridity are evaluated by using the BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero, an aerosol-climate online coupled model. Simulations show that the negative ERF due to external mixing (EM, a scheme in which all aerosol particles are treated as independent spheres formed by single substance) aerosols is largely reduced by the partial internal mixing (PIM, a scheme in which some of the aerosol particles are formed by one absorptive and one scattering substance) method. Compared to EM, PIM aerosols have much stronger absorptive ability and generally weaker hygroscopicity, which would lead to changes in radiative forcing, hence to climate. For the global mean values, the ERFs due to anthropogenic aerosols since the pre-industrial are-1.02 and-1.68 W m(-2) for PIM and EM schemes, respectively. The variables related to aridity such as global mean temperature, net radiation flux at the surface, and the potential evaporation capacity are all decreased by 2.18/1.61 K, 5.06/3.90 W m(-2), and 0.21/0.14 mm day(-1) since 1850 for EM and PIM schemes, respectively. According to the changes in aridity index, the anthropogenic aerosols have caused general humidification over central Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia, but great aridification over eastern China and the Tibetan Plateau since the pre-industrial in both mixing schemes. However, the aridification is considerably alleviated in China, but intensified in the Arabian Peninsula and East Africa in the PIM scheme.

Enhanced near-surface atmospheric warming has occurred over East Asia in recent decades, especially in drylands. Although local factors have been confirmed to provide considerable contributions to this warming, such factors have not been sufficiently analyzed. In this study, we extracted the radiatively forced temperature (RFT) associated with the built-up greenhouse gases, aerosol emission, and various other radiative forcing over East Asia and found a close relationship between RFT and CO2. In addition, using climate model experiments, we explored the responses of temperature changes to black carbon (BC), CO2, and SO4 and found that the enhanced dryland warming induced by CO2 had the largest magnitude and was strengthened by the warming effect of BC. Moreover, the sensitivity of daily maximum and minimum temperature changes to BC, CO2, and SO4 was examined. It showed asymmetric responses of daily maximum and minimum temperature to radiative factors, which led to an obvious change of diurnal temperature range (DTR), especially in drylands. The DTR's response to CO2 is the most significant. Therefore, CO2 not only plays a dominant role in enhanced warming but also greatly affects the decrease of DTR in drylands. However, the mechanisms of these radiative factors' effects in the process of DTR change are not clear and require more investigation.

This paper provides an account of observed variations in Black carbon (BC) aerosol concentrations and their induced radiative forcing for the first time over Granada a measurement site in Southeastern Iberian Peninsula. Column-integrated BC concentrations were retrieved for the period 2005-2012. Monthly averages of BC concentrations (one standard deviation) ranged from higher values in January and December with 4.0 +/- 2.5 and 4 +/- 3 mg/m(2), respectively, to lower values in July and August with 1.6 +/- 1.2 and 2.0 +/- 0.5 mg/m(2), respectively. This reduction is not only observed in the average values, but also in the median, third and first quartiles. The average BC concentration in winter (3.8 +/- 0.6 mg/m(2)) was substantially higher than in summer (1.9 +/- 0.3 mg/m(2)), being the eight-year average of 2.9 +/- 0.9 mg/m(2). The reduction in the use of fossil fuels during the economic crisis contributed significantly to reduced atmospheric loadings of BC. According to our analysis this situation persisted until 2010. BC concentration values were analyzed in terms of air mass influence using cluster analysis. BC concentrations for cluster 1 (local and regional areas) showed high correlations with air masses frequency in winter and autumn. In these seasons BC sources were related to the intense road traffic and increased BC emissions from domestic heating. High BC concentrations were found in autumn just when air mass frequencies for cluster 3 (Mediterranean region) were more elevated, suggesting that air masses coming from that area transport biomass burning particles towards Granada. BC aerosol optical properties were retrieved from BC fraction using aerosol AERONET size volume distribution and Mie theory. A radiative transfer model (SBDART) was used to estimate the aerosol radiative forcing separately for composite aerosol (total aerosols) and exclusively for BC aerosols. The mean radiative forcing for composite aerosol was +23 +/- 6 W/m(2) (heating rate of +0.21 +/- 0.06 K/day) and +15 +/- 6 W/m(2) for BC aerosol (heating rate of +0.15 +/- 0.06 K/day). These values of radiative forcing and heating rate for BC aerosol represent-about 70% of their values for composite aerosol, which highlights the crucial role that BC aerosols play in modifying the radiation budget and climate. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.