The relationship between groundwater and discharge in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions is strongly controlled by permafrost. Previous work has shown that catchments with thawing frozen soils due to the warming climate are expected to show changes in their storage-discharge relationship. In this study, we use a mechanistic modelling approach to demonstrate that a thawing catchment underlain with continuous permafrost undergoes a dramatic change in storage-discharge relationship. We demonstrate that the effect of permafrost thaw, conceptualized as a reduction of an impermeable layer in the subsurface, will likely only be clearly observable as a change in slope of the recession curve of catchments with hillslope gradients>5 %. For flat catchments (<1% hillslope gradient), we find no relation with permafrost extent and change in recession curve slope will likely be dominated by changes in active layer parameters, such as in shallow surface permeability (Hydraulic Conductivity, above permafrost) and shallow surface and subsurface water retention (Specific Yield of Groundwater & Specific Yield of Surface). For mildly sloped Arctic catchments (5 % hillslope gradient), change in recession curve slope is controlled both by changes in permafrost extent and the subsurface flow length and subsurface hydraulic properties for the shallow flow, with minimal impact from overland flow properties and changes in meteorological factors. For moderately sloped Arctic catchments (10 % hillslope gradient), change in recession curve slope change is dominated by changes in permafrost extent, and secondly by changes in the subsurface flow length and sub-surface hydraulic properties, with no impact from meteorological factors or changes in overland flow properties. Several of the parameters found to be driving shifts in recession curve slopes in our modeling, such as changes in active layer thickness and the formation of taliks, are more likely than others to evolve with the ongoing Arctic climate change in hillslopes, helping us understand what drives the real-world increases in non-linearity of storage-discharge relationships.

On the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in northern Alaska (USA), permafrost and abundant surface-water storage define watershed hydrological processes. In the last decades, the ACP landscape experienced extreme climate events and increased lake water withdrawal (LWW) for infrastructure construction, primarily ice roads and industrial operations. However, their potential (combined) effects on streamflow are relatively underexplored. Here, we applied the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological and thermal Water Balance Simulation Model (10 m spatial resolution) to the 30 km(2) Crea Creek watershed located on the ACP. The impacts of documented seasonal climate extremes and LWW were evaluated on seasonal runoff (May-August), including minimum 7-day mean flow (MQ7), the recovery time of MQ7 to pre-perturbation conditions, and the duration of streamflow conditions that prevents fish passage. Low-rainfall scenarios (21% of normal, one to three summers in a row) caused a larger reduction in MQ7 (-56% to -69%) than LWW alone (-44% to -58%). Decadal-long consecutive LWW under average climate conditions resulted in a new equilibrium in low flow and seasonal runoff after 3 years that included a disconnected stream network, a reduced watershed contributing area (54% of total watershed area), and limited fish passage of 20 days (vs. 6 days under control conditions) throughout summer. Our results highlight that, even under current average climatic conditions, LWW is not offset by same-year snowmelt as currently assumed in land management regulations. Effective land management would therefore benefit from considering the combined impact of climate change and industrial LWWs.

Due to polar amplification of climate change, high latitudes are warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world. This warming leads to permafrost thawing, which increases the thickness of the overlying active layer and modifies the subsurface hydrologic regime of the draining watershed, therefore affecting baseflow to surface water and modifying recession characteristics. The active layer thickening and the subsurface flow modification are assumed to be linearly correlated. The objective of this study is to test this assumption by quantifying the correlation between the temporal evolution of hydrologic parameters (recession slope and initial recession outflow) and 11 controlling factors (all linked to surface, subsurface and climatic conditions) for 336 Arctic catchments from 1970 to 2000. Contrary to previous studies, we demonstrate a clear decrease in recession slope and initial recession outflow over 1970-2000 for a majority of catchments at any significance level. We explain this result by identifying high topography and low permafrost extent as controlling factors that complexify the relationship between trends in recession parameters and active layer thickness evolution. The study goes further by identifying the mechanisms behind the complexification of the relationship: permafrost-extent loss, hydrologic-connectivity increase, flow-path-diversity increase, contributing drainage area multiplication. The novel aspect of the study lay behind the large number of studied catchments and the large range of controlling factors tested.

Permafrost hydrology is an emerging discipline, attracting increasing attention as the Arctic region is undergoing rapid change. However, the research domain of this discipline had never been explicitly formulated. Both 'permafrost' and 'hydrology' yield differing meanings across languages and scientific domains; hence, 'permafrost hydrology' serves as an example of cognitive linguistic relativity. From this point of view, the English and Russian usages of this term are explained. The differing views of permafrost as either an ecosystem class or a geographical region, and hydrology as a discipline concerned with either landscapes or generic water bodies, maintain a language-specific touch of the research in this field. Responding to a current lack of a unified approach, we propose a universal process-based definition of permafrost hydrology, based on a specific process assemblage, specific to permafrost regions and including: (1) Unconfined groundwater surface dynamics related to the active layer development; (2) water migration in the soil matrix, driven by phase transitions in the freezing active layer; and (3) transient water storage in both surface and subsurface compartments, redistributing runoff on various time scales. This definition fills the gap in existing scientific vocabulary. Other definitions from the field are revisited and discussed. The future of permafrost hydrology research is discussed, where the most important results would emerge at the interface between permafrost hydrology, periglacial geomorphology, and geocryology.

Climate change in the Arctic leads to permafrost degradation and to associated changes in freshwater geochemistry. There is a limited understanding of how disturbances such as active layer detachments or retrogressive thaw slumps impact water quality on a catchment scale. This study investigates how permafrost degradation affects concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved solids (TDS), suspended sediment, and stable water isotopes in adjacent Low Arctic watersheds. We incorporated data on disturbance between 1952 and 2015, as well as sporadic runoff and geochemistry data of streams nearby. Our results show that the total disturbed area decreased by 41% between 1952 and 2015, whereas the total number of disturbances increased by 66% in all six catchments. The spatial variability of hydrochemical parameters is linked to catchment properties and not necessarily reflected at the outflow. Degrading ice-wedge polygons were found to increase DOC concentrations upstream in Ice Creek West, whereas hydrologically connected disturbances were linked to increases in TDS and suspended sediment. Although we found a great spatial variability of hydrochemical concentrations along the paired watershed, there was a linear relationship between catchment size and daily DOC, total dissolved nitrogen, and TDS fluxes for all six streams. Suspended sediment flux on the contrary did not show a clear relationship as one hydrologically connected retrogressive thaw slump impacted the overall flux in one of the streams. Understanding the spatial variability of water quality will help to model the lateral geochemical fluxes from Arctic catchments. Plain Language Summary One effect climate change has in the Arctic is the thawing of permafrost. Permafrost is defined as ground that remains below 0 degrees C for at least two consecutive years. The low temperatures in the High North lead to very slow decomposition rates of organic material from plants and animals. A lot of this material has accumulated over thousands of years. As air temperatures in the Arctic are rising, permafrost is thawing. This is also termed permafrost degradation. It can occur in two forms: (1) The gradual deeper thawing of permafrost is called thermal perturbation. It might lead to a subsidence (sinking) of the ground, because water that was previously frozen runs off. (2) Thawing of the ground may lead to a destabilization of the ground and connected landslides. This is termed physical or surface disturbance. These two forms of permafrost degradation have an impact on the water quality of rivers flowing through the terrain. In this study, we investigated the impacts of permafrost degradation on stream hydrochemistry on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada. We identified active physical disturbances in the past using aerial photographs from 1952 and 1970 and satellites images from 2011 and 2015. This was done for the areas from which rainwater flows into the same river (catchment area) of six streams named Water Creek, Beach Creek, Fox Creek, Ice Creek West, Ice Creek East, and Eastern Gully. In 2016, we collected water samples along two neighboring streams (Ice Creek West and Ice Creek East) to compare the impacts of local physical disturbances on the hydrochemistry. In these two streams, we also measured water flow (discharge) during the monitoring season. We further collected samples at the outflow of the other four streams nearby. Water samples were analyzed in the laboratory for different chemical properties that help us to understand the influence of permafrost degradation. For the six streams, we found that the total disturbed area decreased by 41% between 1952 and 2015, whereas the total number of disturbances increased by 66%. We were able to link permafrost degradation to changes in chemical water composition within the two neighboring streams. It is important that disturbances are hydrologically connected to impact concentrations of inorganic compounds (total dissolved solids) and mud (suspended sediment) in the streams. Essentially, this means that water needs to flow through these disturbances to mobilize the material and influence the concentration in the stream. Taking all studied streams together, the overall flux of dissolved organic carbon, total dissolved solids, and total dissolved nitrogen (i.e., the amount of chemical compound [in kg] transported away in every liter of river water) depends on catchment size. The larger the catchment, the more of this material is transported away. This relationship could not be confirmed for suspended sediment, because a hydrologically connected retrogressive thaw slump heavily impacted the flux in one of the streams. This study is important because the river water ultimately drains into the Arctic Ocean and might change the water quality there. This may have consequences for the animals and plants living in the ocean. We need to understand the influence of permafrost degradation on stream water quality to assess future changes of the Arctic Ocean. Key Points Between 1952 and 2015, the total disturbed area decreased by 41%, and the number of disturbances increased by 66% Hydrological connectivity of permafrost disturbances is essential to impact suspended sediment and solute concentrations in the stream There is a linear relationship between catchment size and daily flux of dissolved organic carbon, total dissolved nitrogen, and solutes

Understanding the dynamics of heat transfer mechanisms is critical for forecasting the effects of climate change on arctic river temperatures. Climate influences on arctic river temperatures can be particularly important due to corresponding effects on nutrient dynamics and ecological responses. It was hypothesized that the same heat and mass fluxes affect arctic and temperate rivers, but that relative importance and variability over time and space differ. Through data collection and application of a river temperature model that accounts for the primary heat fluxes relevant in temperate climates, heat fluxes were estimated for a large arctic basin over wide ranges of hydrologic conditions. Heat flux influences similar to temperate systems included dominant shortwave radiation, shifts from positive to negative sensible heat flux with distance downstream, and greater influences of lateral inflows in the headwater region. Heat fluxes that differed from many temperate systems included consistently negative net longwave radiation and small average latent heat fluxes. Radiative heat fluxes comprised 88% of total absolute heat flux while all other heat fluxes contributed less than 5% on average. Periodic significance was seen for lateral inflows (up to 26%) and latent heat flux (up to 18%) in the lower and higher stream order portions of the watershed, respectively. Evenly distributed lateral inflows from large scale flow differencing and temperatures from representative tributaries provided a data efficient method for estimating the associated heat loads. Poor model performance under low flows demonstrated need for further testing and data collection to support the inclusion of additional heat fluxes.

Long-term fine-scale dynamics of surface hydrology in Arctic tundra ponds (less than 1ha) are largely unknown; however, these small water bodies may contribute substantially to carbon fluxes, energy balance, and biodiversity in the Arctic system. Change in pond area and abundance across the upper Barrow Peninsula, Alaska, was assessed by comparing historic aerial imagery (1948) and modern submeter resolution satellite imagery (2002, 2008, and 2010). This was complemented by photogrammetric analysis of low-altitude kite-borne imagery in combination with field observations (2010-2013) of pond water and thaw depth transects in seven ponds of the International Biological Program historic research site. Over 2800 ponds in 22 drained thaw lake basins (DTLB) with different geological ages were analyzed. We observed a net decrease of 30.3% in area and 17.1% in number of ponds over the 62year period. The inclusion of field observations of pond areas in 1972 from a historic research site confirms the linear downward trend in area. Pond area and number were dependent on the age of DTLB; however, changes through time were independent of DTLB age, with potential long-term implications for the hypothesized geomorphologic landscape succession of the thaw lake cycle. These losses were coincident with increases in air temperature, active layer, and density and cover of aquatic emergent plants in ponds. Increased evaporation due to warmer and longer summers, permafrost degradation, and transpiration from encroaching aquatic emergent macrophytes are likely the factors contributing to the decline in surface area and number of ponds.

Although much remains to be learned about the Arctic and its component processes, many of the most urgent scientific, engineering, and social questions can only be approached through a broader system perspective. Here, we address interactions between components of the Arctic system and assess feedbacks and the extent to which feedbacks (1) are now underway in the Arctic and (2) will shape the future trajectory of the Arctic system. We examine interdependent connections among atmospheric processes, oceanic processes, sea-ice dynamics, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land surface stocks of carbon and water, glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet. Our emphasis on the interactions between components, both historical and anticipated, is targeted on the feedbacks, pathways, and processes that link these different components of the Arctic system. We present evidence that the physical components of the Arctic climate system are currently in extreme states, and that there is no indication that the system will deviate from this anomalous trajectory in the foreseeable future. The feedback for which the evidence of ongoing changes is most compelling is the surface albedo-temperature feedback, which is amplifying temperature changes over land (primarily in spring) and ocean (primarily in autumn-winter). Other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases, changes in the distribution of vegetation, changes in surface soil moisture, changes in atmospheric water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas of open ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning circulation of the ocean, and changes in Arctic clouds resulting from changes in water vapor content.