This study documents the projected changes in several components (precipitation, runoff, snow cover and depth, soil moisture) of the hydrological cycle in Central-Western Argentina (CWA) based on the simulations from the IPSL-CM6A-LR model for the warming levels proposed in the Paris Agreement. These warming levels represent the future increase in mean annual temperature of 1.5 and 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial conditions. A novel regional approach, that uses a set of low-emissions shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) compatible with the Paris Agreement goals, has been applied here for the evaluation of the potential impacts of temperature increase in both the mountainous areas of the Andes and the lowlands on the eastern portion of CWA. Our results show that the timing of reaching the 1.5 degrees C warming level would be between 2032 and 2036 in the CWA lowlands east of the Andes, while this warming level in the Andes mountains of CWA would be 10-15 years earlier as result of the stronger warming with elevation. The higher 2 degrees C warming level would be reached before 2050 in the Andes mountains. Even using the more aggressive mitigation pathways available in the scientific literature (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6), the IPSL-CM6A-LR model ensemble shows a robust drying signal in the wintertime precipitation over the Andes mountains, which is a concerning result because it implies a reduction of the already scarce water resources draining to the adjacent semi-arid foothills. Our results also show that this drying should be linked to the poleward expansion of the Hadley Circulation. In the lowlands farther east from the Andes, the summertime monsoonal precipitation provides the water resources that are projected to increase under the selected emissions pathways. The expected changes in the analyzed components of the hydrological cycle would be strengthened under the 2 degrees C warming level, particularly the decline of snow amount and surface runoff in the Andes. The results of this study provide insights into the expected impacts of the 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming levels in the CWA regional water resources, which may set the stage for the new discussions of possible options to mitigate them at country and regional levels.

The identification of hazardous slopes with degrading permafrost is a key task in the mountain periglacial environment. If rockslides have previously been preconditioned by rock wall permafrost, similar events may be triggered from present unstable rock walls. An inventory of rockslides and rock avalanches in the austral part of the Santa Cruz river basin (31 degrees 40 '-31 degrees 50 ' S, 70 degrees 30 '-70 degrees 10'W), San Juan, Argentina, was made. The study area comprises a surface of approximately 432 km(2) (50% above 3,500 m asl); 15 rockslides, 12 complex rockslides evolving to rock avalanches and 19 rock avalanches were identified. The deposits were analyzed with remote sensory imagery and during fieldwork in order to study processes under permafrost degradation caused by global warming. Rock sampling procedures and laboratory rock-resistivity testing were also carried out. We characterized the detachment scars and deposits for two rockslides. Two different mechanisms were identified. In one rockslide, shallow active layer detachment was favored by shear-displacement along pre-existing joints, as a result of short-term periods of climate warming. In the other, long-term permafrost degradation favored a deeper failure process. The studied landslide processes could not be explained by permafrost degradation alone. Faults, the geometric arrangement of their structural elements and seismic activity may contribute to trigger these phenomena. It is expected that the magnitude and frequency of rockslide hazards will increase during the 21st century.