In contrast to boreal winter when extratropical seasonal predictions benefit greatly from ENSO-related teleconnections, our understanding of forecast skill and sources of predictability in summer is limited. Based on 40 years of hindcasts of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System, version 3 (CanSIPSv3), this study shows that predictions for the Northern Hemisphere summer surface air temperature are skillful more than 6 months in advance in several midlatitude regions, including eastern Europe-Middle East, central Siberia-Mongolia-North China, and the western United States. These midlatitude regions of statistically significant predictive skill appear to be connected to each other through an upper-tropospheric circumglobal wave train. Although a large part of the forecast skill for the surface air temperature and 500-hPa geopotential height is attributable to the linear trend associated with global warming, there is signifi- cant long-lead seasonal forecast skill related to interannual variability. Two additional idealized hindcast experiments are performed to help shed light on sources of the long-lead forecast skill using one of the CanSIPSv3 models and its uncoupled version. It is found that tropical ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies contribute to the forecast skill in the western United States, while land surface conditions in winter, including snow cover and soil moisture, in the Siberian and western U.S. regions have a delayed or long-lasting impact on the atmosphere, which leads to summer forecast skill in these regions. This implies that improving land surface initial conditions and model representation of land surface processes is crucial for the further development of a seasonal forecasting system.

The tau -omega model is expanded to properly simulate L -band microwave emission of the soil-snow-vegetation continuum through a closed -form solution of Maxwell's equations, considering the intervening dry snow layer as a loss -less medium. The error standard deviations of a least -squared inversion are 0.1 and 3.5 for VOD and ground permittivity, over moderately dense vegetation and a snow density ranging from 100 to 400 kg m -3 , considering noisy brightness temperatures with a standard deviation of 1 kelvin. Using the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite observations, new global estimates of VOD and ground permittivity are presented over the Arctic boreal forests and permafrost areas. In the absence of dense in situ observations of ground permittivity and VOD, the retrievals are causally validated using ancillary variables including ground temperature, above -ground biomass, tree height, and net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide. Time -series analyses promise that the new data set can expand our understanding of the land-atmosphere interactions and exchange of carbon fluxes over Arctic landscapes.

Solar radiation balances significantly affect Earth's surface energy balance and climate change. Studying top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) albedo changes is of great significance for understanding Earth's energy budget and atmospheric circulation. The Loess Plateau (LP), located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in China, is one of the most severely eroded areas in the world. In this paper, long-term remote sensing data were used to analyze the changes in the TOA albedo in the LP from 1982 to 2016. The results showed that the TOA albedo, its atmospheric contribution (AC), and surface contribution (SC) exhibited decreasing trends: -0.0012, -0.0010, and -0.0003 a-1. The spatial pattern of the TOA albedo was similar to AC, which indicates that AC dominates the change in the TOA albedo. We detected driving factors for AC and SC and found that the cloud fraction (CF) was the main driving factor of the AC, whereas the soil moisture (SM) dominated the SC. The driving factors of two typical regions with a significantly decreasing trend in the TOA albedo were also detected. The Mu Us Desert, where vegetation improved significantly, showed a decreasing trend in the TOA albedo, and we found that NDVI was the main driving factor for the change in the SC of the TOA albedo. However, the Eastern Qilian Mountains, where snow cover decreased in recent years, also showed a significant decreasing trend in the TOA albedo; the SC here was mainly driven by the changes in snow cover days (SCD). These results indicate that changes in the surface environment alter the radiation balance. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The Loess Plateau in China is one of the most severe cases of soil erosion in the world, and ecological restoration projects have been carried out to recover the fragile ecological environment. Our study was designed to explore changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) albedo of the Loess Plateau between 1982 and 2016 using a long time series of multisource satellite products, and driving factors in the atmosphere and at the surface were analyzed. We concluded that the TOA albedo of the Loess Plateau decreased over 35 years, and its atmospheric contribution dominated the change in the TOA albedo. However, the significant ecological improvement in the Loess Plateau, especially in the central vegetation recovery region, such as the Mu Us Desert, was also strongly related to the regional changes in the surface contribution of the TOA albedo. The climate changes had a considerable impact on the eastern branch of the Qilian Mountains in the Qinghai region, where the decline in snow cover days affected the local Alpine meadow ecosystems; therefore, snow cover days also played a decisive role in the local variation of the surface contribution of the TOA albedo.

Seasonally frozen soil (SFS) is a critical component of the Cryosphere, and its heat-moisture-deformation characteristics during freeze-thaw processes greatly affect ecosystems, climate, and infrastructure stability. The influence of solar radiation and underlying surface colors on heat exchange between the atmosphere and soil, and SFS development, remains incompletely understood. A unidirectional freezing-thawing test system that considers solar radiation was developed. Subsequently, soil unidirectional freezing-thawing tests were conducted under varying solar radiation intensities and surface colors, and variations in heat flux, temperature, water content, and deformation were monitored. Finally, the effects of solar radiation and surface color on surface thermal response and soil heat-moisture-deformation behaviors were discussed. The results show that solar radiation and highabsorptivity surfaces can increase surface heat flux and convective heat flux, and linearly raise surface temperature. The small heat flux difference at night under different conditions indicates that soil ice-water phase change effectively stores solar energy, slowing down freezing depth development and delaying rapid and stable frost heave onset, ultimately reducing frost heave. Solar radiation causes a significant temperature increase during initial freezing and melting periods, yet its effect decreases notably in other freezing periods. Soil heatwater-deformation characteristics fluctuate due to solar radiation and diurnal soil freeze-thaw cycles exhibit cumulative water migration. Daily maximum solar radiation of 168 W/m(2) and 308 W/m(2) can cause heatmoisture fluctuations in SFS at depths of 6 cm and 11 cm, respectively. The research findings offer valuable insights into the formation, development, and use of solar radiation to mitigate frost heave in SFS.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts strong powerful thermal forcing, which plays a vital role in influencing weather-climate variations in Asia and even the Northern Hemisphere. However, the causes of thermal variation over the TP have not been fully revealed. Here, the role of winter soil moisture (SM) in subsequent summer thermal anomalies on the TP was investigated through multisource datasets for the period 1979-2014. Results indicate a significant positive rela-tionship (r 5 0.52) between winter SM and subsequent summer-mean surface air temperature (SAT). Further investigations show that more (less) winter SM results in abundant (deficient) atmospheric water vapor in subsequent summer owing to its persistence. Furthermore, Earth's surface energy budget equation confirms that strengthened (weakened) surface downward longwave radiation caused by increased (decreased) water vapor is the dominant factor leading to SAT variations, even more significant for nocturnal SAT. The winter SM-atmospheric temperature positive relationship can extend from the sur-face to 200 hPa over the TP. In addition, the enhanced (weakened) atmospheric latent heat release associated with increased (decreased) water vapor content may be another important factor contributing to changes in atmospheric temperatures over the TP. Therefore, our results contribute to a better understanding of the effect of land-surface processes on thermal anoma-lies over the TP. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Understanding the causes of thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for weather and climate variations, but the role of winter soil moisture (SM) in subsequent summer ther-mal effects is largely unknown. This study investigated the relationship between winter SM and thermal anomalies in subsequent summers on the TP. Results show that the above (below)-normal winter SM will cause warm (cold) atmospheric temperatures in the subsequent summer. The above (below)-normal winter SM anomalies bring increased (decreased) atmospheric water vapor in summer owing to its persistence, resulting in strengthened (weakened) down-ward longwave radiation and atmospheric latent heat release to heat (cool) the atmosphere.

As an important component of carbonaceous aerosols (CA), organic carbon (OC) exerts a strong, yet insufficiently constrained perturbation of the climate. In this study, we reported sources of OC based on its natural abundance radiocarbon (14C) fingerprinting in aerosols and water-insoluble organic carbon (WIOC) in snowpits across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) - one of the remote regions in the world and a freshwater reservoir for billions of people. Overall, the proportions from C-14-based non-fossil fuel contribution (f(non-fossil)) for OC in aerosols was 74 +/- 10%, while for WIOC in snowpits was 81 +/- 10%, both of which were significantly higher than that of elemental carbon (EC). These indicated sources of OC (WIOC) and EC were different at remote TP. Spatially, high f(non-fossil) of WIOC of snowpit samples appeared at the inner part of the TP, indicating the important contribution of local non-fossil sources. Therefore, local non-fossil sources rather than long-range transportation OC dominants its total amount of the TP. In addition, the contribution of local non-fossil sourced WIOC increased during the monsoon period because heavy precipitation removed a high ratio of long-range transportation WIOC. The results of this study showed that not only OC and EC but also their different fuel sources should be treated separately in models to investigate their sources and atmospheric transportation.

Ice sheet serves as a crucial indicator for assessing climate change. Mass loss in recent remote sensing-based studies indicated that the Antarctic Peninsula has rapid rates of glacier retreat and speed up of surface velocity. However, observations of seasonal variability of ice speed are limited, and glacier-area changes require multi-temporal monitoring. This study investigated the changes in area and surface velocities of similar to 375 glaciers on the northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) utilizing satellite images acquired by the Sentinel 1 & 2 satellites during 2018 - 2022. The results indicate that the glacier area reduced by approximately 166.1 +/- 44.2 km(2) (-0.2% +/- 0.1% per year) during the study period, with an acceleration after 2020 (-0.4% +/- 0.3% per year), and the most dramatic reduction happened on the eastern NAP. The maximum annual ice speeds on the NAP generally exceeded 3500 m per year, while the ice speeds in 2021 were the highest (exceeded 4210 m per year). The ice speed variability in austral autumn was higher than in other seasons, meanwhile the summer ice speeds showed an increasing trend. The glacier G012158E47018N, McNeile Glacier, glacier G299637E64094S and Drygalski Glacier showed the most remarkable ice speed variations represented by high daily velocities and strong fluctuations on their termini. Our results demonstrated that the variations in glacier area and seasonal ice speed on the NAP were responsive to the ice - ocean - atmosphere processes. Therefore, seasonal velocity and area variations should be considered when conducting accurate mass balance calculations, model validations and change mechanism analyses under climate warming scenarios.

Aeolian landscapes dominate the semiarid dune fields across the Asian summer monsoonal boundary (ASMB) of northern China, where the widespread palaeosols are usually regarded as indicators of enhanced monsoonal precipitation (moisture) during the Late Quaternary. However, the processes of palaeosol development, and their response to climate change, remain controversial due to the complex land-atmosphere interactions within different bioclimatic zones. Here, we review the patterns of palaeosol development, precipitation/moisture (P/ M) evolution, and lake level fluctuations across different sub-regions of the ASMB. With the aid of typical temperature and vegetation records, we qualitatively and quantitatively distinguish the contributions of different climatic factors to palaeosol development since 20 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and elucidate the underlying mechanisms. Our results indicate an asynchronous pattern of palaeosol development, with optimum develop-ment during 10-4, 8-4, and 6-2 ka in northeastern (NE) China, north central (NC) China, and on the NE Qinghai -Tibetan Plateau (QTP), respectively. This implies a transmeridional asynchronous pattern of palaeosol devel-opment on the scale of the ASMB. Our qualitative and quantitative analysis of the contributions of climatic variables elucidates the various relationships between palaeosol development and the climatic background across different sub-regions of the ASMB. The results demonstrate that temperature and precipitation are the dominant factors for palaeosol development in NE and NC China, respectively; whereas effective moisture, rather than temperature and precipitation alone, controls palaeosol development on the NE QTP, demonstrating different pedogenic responses against the same overall climatic background. These mechanisms are supported by the results of multiple studies of Holocene vegetation evolution and the associated climatic conditions. We conclude that the asynchronous pattern of palaeosol development across the ASMB was caused by variations in different dominant climatic factors, highlighting the diverse and complex interactions of climate change and Earth surface processes, even within the relatively uniform climatic environment of semiarid northern China. Our findings emphasize the differing responses of palaeosol development to regional climate change and provide new insights into the interactions of the land-atmosphere system in the critical zone of northern China.

The global aerosol direct and indirect radiative effect remains the largest source of uncertainty in estimations of the global energy budget in climate models. Black carbon (BC) is the largest contributor to aerosol atmospheric radiative absorption, and its contribution to radiative forcing must be better constrained to reduce uncertainties in the overall aerosol radiative effect. This paper reviews the advancement in the understanding of BC radiative forcing, highlighting improved constraints for major sources of model uncertainty as described by Bond et al. (J Geophys Res Atmos 118:5380-5552, 2013), a fundamental review of the climate effects of BC which served as a primary source of the BC uncertainty analysis in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Bond identified five primary sources of forcing uncertainty: altitude and removal rates of BC, BC emissions rates, individualized attribution of radiative forcing to absorbing aerosols species, BC effects on clouds, and accuracy of climate models in representing components of the Earth system, such as clouds and sea ice absent of BC. Improved constraints in each of these areas of forcing uncertainty-particularly BC impacts on clouds and atmospheric water vapor-have achieved a narrower uncertainty range in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This paper excludes a review of the accuracy of the representation of climate models, rather focusing on the interaction of anthropogenic emissions of BC in the climate system. Future research should both expand upon the progress detailed in this paper and address the impacts of BC in the cryosphere, with particular focus on the contribution of BC to observed rapid warming of the Arctic.

Exploring the premonsoonal land thermal predictor of the Indian summer monsoon is a hot topic under the background of global warming, and West Asia is one of the regions with the most significant warming in spring. In this study, we investigated the impact of anomalous spring land surface warming over West Asia on early summer (June) Indian monsoon precipitation as well as its possible mechanisms based on statistical analysis and numerical simulations. It has been found that spring land surface anomalous warming over West Asia corresponds to the enhancement of the leading mode of early summer precipitation in the Indian subcontinent, especially in its northern part. Further analysis indicates that an anomalously warm land surface over West Asia can advance the transition of atmospheric conditions toward the warm season by heating the atmosphere above. The increased land-sea meridional thermal contrast favors the intensification of the low-level jet and monsoon trough, further inducing anomalous moisture convergence and ascending motion over northern India. Additionally, the heat-driven anomalous upper-tropospheric anticyclone over West Asia favors the intensification of the tropical easterly jet and the northwestward development of the South Asian high (SAH). The enhanced SAH dynamically couples with the lower- to middle-level cyclonic circulation over northern India, resulting in a stronger monsoon and increased precipitation. These findings are helpful for better understanding and prediction of Indian early summer monsoon. Significance StatementThe land surface thermal condition is critical to the monsoon activity and exploring the premonsoonal land thermal predictor of Indian summer monsoon remains a hot topic. The purpose of this study is to explore how spring land surface thermal anomalies over West Asia impact Indian monsoon activity in early summer (June). The anomalous land surface warming over West Asia can lead to a stronger Indian monsoon in early summer by heating and driving the atmosphere, which benefits the precipitation increase over northern India. Our results provide a further scientific basis for the prediction of early summer Indian precipitation.