Aviation emissions contribute to climate change and local air pollution, with important contributions from non-CO2 emissions. These exhibit diverse impacts on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing (RF), varying with location, altitude, and time. Assessments of local mitigation strategies with global emission metrics may overlook this variability, but detailed studies of aviation emissions in areas smaller than continents are scarce. Integrating the AviTeam emission model and OsloCTM3, we quantify CO2, NOx, BC, OC, and SOx emissions, tropospheric concentration changes, RF, region-specific metrics, and assess alternative fuels for Norwegian domestic aviation. Mitigation potentials fora fuel switch to LH2 differ by up to 3.1 x 108 kgCO2-equivalents (GWP20) when using region-specific compared to global metrics. These differences result from a lower, region- specific contribution of non-CO2 emissions, particularly related to NOx. This study underscores the importance of accounting for non-CO2 variability in regional assessments, whether through region-specific metrics or advanced atmospheric modelling techniques.

Aviation emissions are the only direct source of anthropogenic particulate pollution at high altitudes, which can form con-trails and contrail-induced clouds, with consequent effects upon global radiative forcing. In this study, we develop a pre-dictive model, called APMEP-CNN, for aviation non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) emissions using a convolutional neural network (CNN) technique. The model is established with data sets from the newly published aviation emission databank and measurement results from several field studies on the ground and during cruise operation. The model also takes the influence of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) on nvPM emissions into account by considering fuel properties. This study demonstrates that the APMEP-CNN can predict nvPM emission index in mass (EIm) and number (EIn) for a number of high-bypass turbofan engines. The accuracy of predicting EIm and EIn at ground level is significantly improved (R2 = 0.96 and 0.96) compared to the published models. We verify the suitability and the applicability of the APMEP-CNN model for estimating nvPM emissions at cruise and burning SAFs and blend fuels, and find that our predictions for EIm are within & PLUSMN;36.4 % of the measurements at cruise and within & PLUSMN;33.0 % of the measurements burning SAFs in av-erage. In the worst case, the APMEP-CNN prediction is different by -69.2 % from the measurements at cruise for the JT3D-3B engine. Thus, the APMEP-CNN model can provide new data for establishing accurate emission inventories of global aviation and help assess the impact of aviation emissions on human health, environment and climate.Synopsis: The results of this paper provide accurate predictions of nvPM emissions from in-use aircraft engines, which im-pact airport local air quality and global radiative forcing.

Three global chemistry-transport models (CTM) are used to quantify the radiative forcing (RF) from aviation NOx emissions, and the resultant reductions in RF from coupling NOx to aerosols via heterogeneous chemistry. One of the models calculates the changes due to aviation black carbon (BC) and sulphate aerosols and their direct RF, as well as the BC indirect effect on cirrus cloudiness. The surface area density of sulphate aerosols is then passed to the other models to compare the resulting photochemical perturbations on NOx through heterogeneous chemical reactions. The perturbation on O-3 and CH4 (via OH) is finally evaluated, considering both short- and long-term O-3 responses. Ozone RF is calculated using the monthly averaged output of the three CTMs in two independent radiative transfer codes. According to the models, column ozone and CH4 lifetime changes due to coupled NOx/aerosol emissions are, on average, +0.56 Dobson Units (DU) and -1.1 months, respectively, for atmospheric conditions and aviation emissions representative of the year 2006, with an RF of +16.4 and -10.2 mW/m(2) for O-3 and CH4, respectively. Sulphate aerosol induced changes on ozone column and CH4 lifetime account for -0.028 DU and +0.04 months, respectively, with corresponding RFs of -0.63 and +0.36 mW/m(2). Soot-cirrus forcing is calculated to be 4.9 mW/m(2).