Permafrost roughly affects half of the boreal region in Alaska and varies greatly in its thermo-physical properties and genesis. In boreal ecosystems, permafrost formation and degradation respond to complex interactions among climate, topography, hydrology, soils, vegetation, and disturbance. We synthesized data on soil thermal conditions and permafrost characteristics to assess current permafrost conditions in central Alaska, and classified and mapped soil landscapes vulnerable to future thaw and thermokarst development. Permafrost soil properties at 160 sites ranged from rocky soils in hillslope colluvium and glacial till, to silty loess, to thick peats on abandoned floodplains and bogs, across 64 geomorphic units. Ground-ice contents (% moisture) varied greatly across geomorphic units. Mean annual ground temperatures at similar to 1 m depth varied 12.5 degrees C across 77 sites with most permafrost near thawing or actively thawing. To assess the vulnerability of permafrost to climate variability and disturbance, we differentiated permafrost responses in terms of rate of thaw, potential thaw settlement, and thermokarst development. Using a rule-based model that uses geomorphic units for spatial extrapolation at the landscape scale, we mapped 10 vulnerability classes across three areas in central Alaska ranging from high potential settlement/low thaw rate in extremely ice-rich loess to low potential settlement/high thaw rate in rocky hillslope colluvium. Permafrost degradation is expected to result in 10 thermokarst landform types. Vulnerability classes corresponded to thermokarst features that developed in response to past climates. Differing patterns in permafrost vulnerability have large implications for ecosystem trajectories, land use, and infrastructure damage from permafrost thaw.

The Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB) is a crucial metric for understanding integrated carbon dynamics in Arctic and boreal regions, which are vital to the global carbon cycle. These areas are associated with significant uncertainties and rapid climate change, potentially leading to unpredictable alterations in carbon dynamics. This mini-review examines key components of NECB, including carbon sequestration, methane emissions, lateral carbon transport, herbivore interactions, and disturbances, while integrating insights from recent permafrost region greenhouse gas budget syntheses. We emphasize the need for a holistic approach to quantify the NECB, incorporating all components and their uncertainties. The review highlights recent methodological advances in flux measurements, including improvements in eddy covariance and automatic chamber techniques, as well as progress in modeling approaches and data assimilation. Key research priorities are identified, such as improving the representation of inland waters in process-based models, expanding monitoring networks, and enhancing integration of long-term field observations with modeling approaches. These efforts are essential for accurately quantifying current and future greenhouse gas budgets in rapidly changing northern landscapes, ultimately informing more effective climate change mitigation strategies and ecosystem management practices. The review aligns with the goals of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) and Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), providing important insights for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders working to understand and protect these sensitive ecosystems.

With global warming, the frequency and intensity of drought episodes are projected to increase worldwide, especially in the boreal forest. This represents a serious threat to the boreal forest ecosystem's productivity and environmental services. It is thus crucial to better understand how drought or water limitation could affect boreal forest ecosystems functioning, and to be prepared to overcome damage caused by drought events. Studies suggest that microbes may mitigate the negative effects of drought or water shortage on plants. However, most of these studies focused on soil microbes and on agricultural ecosystems. Here, we used a rainout shelters and soil irrigation experimental design to study the response to rain exclusion and soil water content of epiphytic phyllosphere bacterial communities associated with four boreal conifer tree species. Our results showed only a weak response of phyllosphere bacterial communities to variation in soil water content. On the other hand, host tree species identity and rain exclusion were the main drivers of epiphytic phyllosphere bacterial communities' structure and diversity. This suggests that fewer rain events, in the context of climate change, would impact boreal trees phyllosphere microbiome composition.

Fungal communities can be used as indicators of various environmental processes in forest ecosystems. The diversity of these communities is linked to aboveground plants and soil properties. We assessed fungal diversity at four Norway spruce sampling sites that were growing on fertile mineral soils (Oxalidosa) in northwestern Latvia. Three sites were managed-a three-year-old clear-cut and fifty- and eighty-five-year-old stands; one site was unmanaged-a naturally regenerated site after wind damage in 1969. For metabarcoding, we used a fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS2) and high throughput sequencing with the Ion Torrent platform. Our results showed high operational taxonomic unit richness in the samples, with notable variation in community composition between individual plots both within and among sites, with the highest being in managed, middle-aged stands and the lowest in unmanaged. Significant differences in the diversity of soil fungal communities were not detected between the sites. Redundancy analysis indicated that pH, soil organic matter, organic carbon, and nitrogen were the most important soil variables that explained the variation in fungal communities. The unmanaged stand differed notably by community composition. This study highlights the importance of monitoring forest soil environmental parameters and fungal communities to gain a more comprehensive assessment of forestry management regimes.

The high latitudes cover similar to 20% of Earth's land surface. This region is facing many shifts in thermal, moisture and vegetation properties, driven by climate warming. Here we leverage remote sensing and climate reanalysis records to improve understanding of changes in ecosystem indicators. We applied non-parametric trend detections and Getis-Ord Gi* spatial hotspot assessments. We found substantial terrestrial warming trends across Siberia, portions of Greenland, Alaska, and western Canada. The same regions showed increases in vapor pressure deficit; changes in precipitation and soil moisture were variable. Vegetation greening and browning were widespread across both continents. Browning of the boreal zone was especially evident in autumn. Multivariate hotspot analysis indicated that Siberian ecoregions have experienced substantial, simultaneous, changes in thermal, moisture and vegetation status. Finally, we found that using regionally-based trends alone, without local assessments, can yield largely incomplete views of high-latitude change.

Boreal and temperate forests are undergoing structural, compositional and functional changes in response to increasing temperatures, changes in precipitation, and rising CO2, but the extent of the changes in forests will also depend on current and future forest management. This study utilized the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS enabled with forest management (version 4.1.2, rev11016) to simulate changes in forest ecosystem functioning and supply of ecosystem services in Sweden. We compared three alternative forest policy scenarios: Business As Usual, with no change in the proportion of forest types within landscapes; Adaptation and Resistance, with an increased area of mixed stands; and EU-Policy, with a focus on conservation and reduced management intensity. LPJ-GUESS was forced with climate data derived from an ensemble of three earth system models to study long-term implications of a low (SSP1-2.6), a high (SSP3-7.0), and a very high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenario. Increases in net primary production varied between 4% and 8% in SSP1-2.6, 21%-25% in SSP3-7.0 and 25%-29% in SSP5-8.5 across all three forest policy scenarios, when comparing 2081-2100 to 2001-2020. Increased net primary production was mediated by a higher soil nitrogen availability and increased water use efficiency in the higher emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Soil carbon storage showed small but significant decreases in SSP3-7.0 and in SSP5-8.5. Our results highlight differences in the predisposition to storm damage among forest policy scenarios, which were most pronounced in southern Sweden, with increases of 61%-76% in Business-As-Usual, 4%-11% in Adaptation and Resistance, and decreases of 7%-12% in EU-Policy when comparing 2081-2100 to 2001-2020.

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979, resulting in rapid glacier retreat and exposing new glacier forelands. These forelands offer unique experimental settings to explore how global warming impacts ecosystems, particularly for highly climate-sensitive arthropods. Understanding these impacts can help anticipate future biodiversity and ecosystem changes under ongoing warming scenarios. In this study, we integrate data on arthropod diversity from DNA gut content analysis-offering insight into predator diets-with quantitative measures of arthropod activity-density at a Greenland glacier foreland using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Our SEM analysis reveals both bottom-up and top-down controlled food chains. Bottom-up control, linked to sit-and-wait predator behavior, was prominent for spider and harvestman populations, while top-down control, associated with active search behavior, was key for ground beetle populations. Bottom-up controlled dynamics predominated during the early stages of vegetation succession, while top-down mechanisms dominated in later successional stages further from the glacier, driven largely by increasing temperatures. In advanced successional stages, top-down cascades intensify intraguild predation (IGP) among arthropod predators. This is especially evident in the linyphiid spider Collinsia holmgreni, whose diet included other linyphiid and lycosid spiders, reflecting high IGP. The IGP ratio in C. holmgreni negatively correlated with the activity-density of ground-dwelling prey, likely contributing to the local decline and possible extinction of this cold-adapted species in warmer, late-succession habitats where lycosid spiders dominate. These findings suggest that sustained warming and associated shifts in food web dynamics could lead to the loss of cold-adapted species, while brief warm events may temporarily impact populations without lasting extinction effects.

Monitoring surface albedo at a fine spatial resolution in forests can enrich process understanding and benefit ecosystem modeling and climate-oriented forest management. Direct estimation of surface albedo using 10 m reflectance imagery from Sentinel-2 is a promising research avenue to this extent, although questions remain regarding the representativeness of the underlying model of surface reflectance anisotropy originating from coarser-resolution imagery (e.g., MODIS). Here, using Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, Finland) as a case region, we test the hypothesis that systematic stratification of the forested landscape into similar species compositions and physical structures prior to the step of carrying out angular bin regressions can lead to improved albedo estimation accuracy of direct estimation algorithms. We find that such stratification does not lead to statistically meaningful improvement over stratification based on conventional land cover classification, suggesting that factors other than forest structure (e.g., soils, understory vegetation) may be equally important in explaining within-forest variations in surface reflectance anisotropy. Nevertheless, for Sentinel-2-based direct estimation based on conventional forest classification, we document total-sky surface albedo errors (RMSE) during snowfree and snow-covered conditions of 0.015 (15 %) and 0.037 (21 %), respectively, which align with those of the coarser spatial resolution products in current operation.

Insights into the impacts of freeze-thaw processes on soil microorganisms and their related functions in permafrost regions are crucial for assessing ecological consequences imposed by the shifts in freeze-thaw patterns. Through in-situ investigations on seasonal freeze-thaw processes in the active layer of permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we found that microbial richness was higher and positively correlated with soil multifunctionality during the freeze-thaw stage (freezing and thawing periods) compared to the non-freeze-thaw stage (completely frozen and thawed periods). This relationship resulted from the higher microbial stability, which was highly consistent with the lower complexity, more keystone taxa, and greater robustness of networks. Although freeze-thaw strength exacerbated the greenhouse effect on climate, it was alleviated by the enhancement of diversity-soil multifunctionality relationship. These findings have substantial implications for exploring the responses of microbial-mediated soil multifunctionality and greenhouse effect in alpine permafrost to more drastic variations of freeze-thaw processes under future warming.

The abrupt warming events punctuating the Termination 1 (about 11.7-18 ka Before Present, BP) were marked by sharp rises in the concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4). The role of permafrost organic carbon (OC) in these rises is still debated, with studies based on top-down measurements of radiocarbon (14C) content of CH(4 )trapped in ice cores suggesting minimum contributions from old and strongly C-14-depleted permafrost OC. However, organic matter from permafrost can exhibit a continuum of C-14 ages (contemporaneous to >50 ky). Here, we investigate the large-scale permafrost remobilization at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition (ca. 11.6 ka BP) using the sedimentary record deposited at the Lena River paleo-outlet (Arctic Ocean) to reflect permafrost destabilization in this vast drainage basin. Terrestrial OC was isolated from sediments and characterized geochemically measuring delta C-13, Delta C-14, and lignin phenol molecular fossils. Results indicate massive remobilization of relatively young (about 2,600 years) permafrost OC from inland Siberia after abrupt warming triggered severe active layer deepening. Methane emissions from this young fraction of permafrost OC contributed to the deglacial CH4 rise. This study stresses that underestimating permafrost complexities may affect our comprehension of the deglacial permafrost OC-climate feedback and helps understand how modern permafrost systems may react to rapid warming events, including enhanced CH4 emissions that would amplify anthropogenic climate change.