Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) including black carbon (BC), methane (CH4), and tropospheric ozone (O-3) are major climate forcers after carbon dioxide (CO2). These SLCPs also have detrimental impacts on human health and agriculture. Studies show that the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, which includes Nepal, has been experiencing the impacts of these pollutants in addition to greenhouse gases. In this study, we derive a national-level emission inventory for SLCPs, CO2, and air pollutants for Nepal and project their impacts under reference (REF) and mitigation policy (POL) scenarios. The impacts on human health, agriculture, and climate were then estimated by applying the following: (1) adjoint coefficients from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-chemical transport model that quantify the sensitivity of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and surface O-3 concentrations in Nepal, and radiative forcing in four latitudinal bands, to emissions in 2 x 2.5 degrees grids, and (2) concentration-response functions to estimate health and crop loss impacts in Nepal. With the mitigating measures undertaken, emission reductions of about 78% each of BC and CH4 and 87% of PM2.5 could be achieved in 2050 compared with the REF scenario. This would lead to an estimated avoidance of 29,000 lives lost and 1.7 million tonnes of crop loss while bringing an economic benefit in present value of 2.7 times more than the total cost incurred in its implementation during the whole period 2010-2050. The results provide useful policy insights and pathways for evidence-based decision-making in the design and effective implementation of SLCP mitigation measures in Nepal.

The current study compares black carbon radiative effects at the densely populated plain station, Varanasi and the lesser populated plateau station Ranchi with large forest cover but with numerous open coal mines. While the measured average black carbon mass density (BC) reduces from February to March at Ranchi following an increase in convective mixing, it is observed to increase by 150% from February to March in Varanasi, as transport from northeast forest fires increases. It is observed that absorption due to black carbon of non-fossil fuel origin is prevalent throughout the day, in Varanasi, while this contribution is most significant during post sunset hours in Ranchi. Radiative forcing, estimated hourly using chemical model (to derive BC-aod) and radiative transfer model, indicates that at least 5% of the incoming radiation is always cutoff during any time of the day in Varanasi while this is about 4% in Ranchi. BC effectively causes an apparent delayed sunrise by reducing the incoming radiation on the plains of Indo Gangetic Basin (IGB) by up to 25% at the daybreak. An estimate of crop loss due to cut off in radiation, using an empirical formula for crop yield as a function of radiation, indicates a possible loss of more than a quintal per hectare considering anthesis (February) and maturity (March) periods for the winter wheat in both the IGB stations with consistently higher losses in Varanasi.