Northeastern China (NEC) is the largest grain base in China. Improving understanding of the effect of climate change on grain production over NEC is conducive to providing immediate response strategies for grain production. In this study, the relationships of the maize production with the dry state during the different maize growth stage have been investigated using the year-to-year increment method. Results showed that the severe drought that occurred from the jointing to maturity period have exerted severe effects on the maize growth. Further analysis indicated that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over North Atlantic and Maritime Continent in later spring are the important factors affecting the summer droughts over NEC. The late spring SST anomaly over North Atlantic can excite the Rossby waves from the western North Atlantic and propagate eastward to NEC. The snow anomaly over western Siberia in late spring and the soil moisture anomaly over NEC in summer are key factors linking the SST anomaly to drought over the NEC. On the other hand, the Maritime Continent SST anomaly in late spring can modulate the activity of the East Asian jet stream via the East AsiaPacific (EAP) teleconnection, which can provide the favorable conditions for the soil moisture reduction over NEC. Eventually, a predictive model for maize yield over NEC is successfully developed by using the predictive indices of the North Atlantic and the Maritime Continental SST during late spring. Both the cross-validation and independent sample tests show that the calibrated prediction model is robust and exhibits high skill in predicting maize yield over NEC.

Carbonaceous aerosol, including organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC), has significant influence on human health, air quality and climate change. Accurate measurement of carbonaceous aerosol is essential to reduce the uncertainty of radiative forcing estimation and source apportionment. The accurate separation of OC and EC is controversial due to the charring of OC. Therefore, the development of reference materials (RM) for the validation of OC/EC separation is an important basis for further study. Previous RMs were mainly based on ambient air sampling, which could not provide traceability of OC and EC concentration. To develop traceable RMs with known OC/EC contents, our study applied an improved aerosol generation and mixing technique, providing uniform deposition of particles on quartz filters. To generate OC aerosol with similar pyrolytic property of ambient aerosol, both water soluble organic carbon (WSOC) and water insoluble organic carbon (WIOC) were used, and amorphous carbon was selected for EC surrogate. The RMs were analyzed using different protocols. The homogeneity within the filter was validated, reaching below 2%. The long -term stability of RMs has been validated with RSD ranged from 1.7%-3.2%. Good correlation was observed between nominal concentration of RMs with measured concentration by two protocols, while the difference of EC concentration was within 20%. The results indicated that the newly developed RMs were acceptable for the calibration of OC and EC, which could improve the accuracy of carbonaceous aerosol measurement. Moreover, the laboratory-generated EC-RMs could be suitable for the calibration of equivalent BC concentration by Aethalometers. (c) 2024 The Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ )

Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) as light-absorbing particles (LAPs) deposited to snow cover can result in early onset and rapid snow melting, challenging management of downstream water resources. We identified LAPs in 38 snow samples (water years 2013-2016) from the mountainous Upper Colorado River basin by comparing among laboratory-measured spectral reflectance, chemical, physical, and magnetic properties. Dust sample reflectance, averaged over the wavelength range of 0.35-2.50 mu m, varied by a factor of 1.9 (range, 0.2300-0.4444) and was suppressed mainly by three components: (a) carbonaceous matter measured as total organic carbon (1.6-22.5 wt. %) including inferred black carbon, natural organic matter, and carbon-based synthetic, black road-tire-wear particles, (b) dark rock and mineral particles, indicated by amounts of magnetite (0.11-0.37 wt. %) as their proxy, and (c) ferric oxide minerals identified by reflectance spectroscopy and magnetic properties. Fundamental compositional differences were associated with different iron oxide groups defined by dominant hematite, goethite, or magnetite. These differences in iron oxide mineralogy are attributed to temporally varying source-area contributions implying strong interannual changes in regional source behavior, dust-storm frequency, and (or) transport tracks. Observations of dust-storm activity in the western U.S. and particle-size averages for all samples (median, 25 mu m) indicated that regional dust from deserts dominated mineral-dust masses. Fugitive contaminants, nevertheless, contributed important amounts of LAPs from many types of anthropogenic sources.

Freeze-thaw cycles (FTC) alter soil function through changes to physical organization of the soil matrix and biogeochemical processes. Understanding how dynamic climate and soil properties influence FTC may enable better prediction of ecosystem response to changing climate patterns. In this study, we quantified FTC occurrence and frequency across 40 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites. We used site mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT) to define warm and wet, warm and dry, and cold and dry climate groupings. Site and soil properties, including MAT, MAP, maximum-minimum temperature difference, aridity index, precipitation as snow (PAS), and organic mat thickness, were used to characterize climate groups and investigate relationships between site properties and FTC occurrence and frequency. Ecosystem-specific drivers of FTC provided insight into potential changes to FTC dynamics with climate warming. Warm and dry sites had the most FTC, driven by rapid diurnal FTC close to the soil surface in winter. Cold and dry sites were characterized by fewer, but longer-duration FTC, which mainly occurred in spring and increased in number with higher organic mat thickness (Spearman's rho = 0.97, p < 0.01). The influence of PAS and MAT on the occurrence of FTC depended on climate group (binomial model interaction p (chi(2)) < 0.05), highlighting the role of a persistent snowpack in buffering soil temperature fluctuations. Integrating ecosystem type and season-specific FTC patterns identified here into predictive models may increase predictive accuracy for dynamic system response to climate change.

This study analyzes the forest flammability hazard in the south of Tyumen Oblast (Western Siberia, Russia) and identifies variation patterns in fire areas depending on weather and climate characteristics in 2008-2023. Using correlation analysis, we proved that the area of forest fires is primarily affected by maximum temperature, relative air humidity, and the amount of precipitation, as well as by global climate change associated with an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the maximum height of snow cover. As a rule, a year before the period of severe forest fires in the south of Tyumen Oblast, the height of snow cover is insignificant, which leads to insufficient soil moisture in the following spring, less or no time for the vegetation to enter the vegetative phase, and the forest leaf floor remaining dry and easily flammable, which contributes to an increase in the fire area. According to the estimates of the CMIP6 project climate models under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, by the end of the 21st century, a gradual increase in the number of summer temperatures above 35 degrees C is expected, whereas the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario forecasts the tripling in the number of such hot days. The forecast shows an increase of fire hazardous conditions in the south of Tyumen Oblast by the late 21st century, which should be taken into account in the territory's economic development.

Hydrologic-land surface models (H-LSMs) offer a physically-based framework for representing and predicting the present and future states of the extensive high-latitude permafrost areas worldwide. Their primary challenge, however, is that soil temperature data are severely limited, and traditional model validation, based only on streamflow, can show the right fit to these data for the wrong reasons. Here, we address this challenge by (1) collecting existing data in various forms including in-situ borehole data and different large-scale permafrost maps in addition to streamflow data, (2) comprehensively evaluating the performance of an H-LSM with a wide range of possible process parametrizations and initializations, and (3) assessing possible trade-offs in model performance in concurrently representing hydrologic and permafrost dynamics, thereby pointing to the possible model deficiencies that require improvement. As a case study, we focus on the sub-arctic Liard River Basin in Canada, which typifies vast northern sporadic and discontinuous permafrost regions. Our findings reveal that different process parameterizations tend to align with different data sources or variables, which largely exhibit inconsistencies among themselves. We further observe that a model may fail to represent permafrost occurrence yet seemingly fit streamflows adequately. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that accurately representing essential permafrost dynamics, including the active soil layer and insulation effects from snow cover and soil organic matter, is crucial for developing high-fidelity models in these regions. Given the complexity of processes and the incompatibility among different data sources/variables, we conclude that employing an ensemble of carefully designed model parameterizations is essential to provide a reliable picture of the current conditions and future spatio-temporal co-evolution of hydrology and permafrost.

Generally, with increasing elevation, there is a corresponding decrease in annual mean air and soil temperatures, resulting in an overall decrease in ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the variations in CO2 exchange along elevation gradients in tundra ecosystems. Aiming to quantify CO2 exchange along elevation gradients in tundra ecosystems, we measured ecosystem CO2 exchange in the peak growing season along an elevation gradient (9-387 m above sea level, m.a.s.l) in an arctic heath tundra, West Greenland. We also performed an ex-situ incubation experiment based on soil samples collected along the elevation gradient, to assess the sensitivity of soil respiration to changes in temperature and soil moisture. There was no apparent temperature gradient along the elevation gradient, with the lowest air and soil temperatures at the second lowest elevation site (83 m). The lowest elevation site exhibited the highest net ecosystem exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) rates, while the other three sites generally showed intercomparable CO2 exchange rates. Topography aspect-induced soil microclimate differences rather than the elevation were the primary drivers for the soil nutrient status and ecosystem CO2 exchange. The temperature sensitivity of soil respiration above 0 degrees C increased with elevation, while elevation did not regulate the temperature sensitivity below 0 degrees C or the moisture sensitivity. Soil total nitrogen, carbon, and ammonium contents were the controls of temperature sensitivity below 0 degrees C. Overall, our results emphasize the significance of considering elevation and microclimate when predicting the response of CO2 balance to climate change or upscaling to regional scales, particularly during the growing season. However, outside the growing season, other factors such as soil nutrient dynamics, play a more influential role in driving ecosystem CO2 fluxes. To accurately upscale or predict annual CO2 fluxes in arctic tundra regions, it is crucial to incorporate elevation-specific microclimate conditions into ecosystem models.

Freeze-thaw (FT) events profoundly perturb the biochemical processes of soil and water in mid- and high-latitude regions, especially the riparian zones that are often recognized as the hotspots of soil-water interactions and thus one of the most sensitive ecosystems to future climate change. However, it remains largely unknown how the heterogeneously composed and progressively discharged meltwater affect the biochemical cycling of the neighbor soil. In this study, stream water from a valley in the Chinese Loess Plateau was frozen at -10 degrees C for 12 hours, and the meltwater (at +10 degrees C) progressively discharged at three stages (T1 similar to T3) was respectively added to rewet the soil collected from the same stream bed (Soil+T1 similar to Soil+T3). Our results show that: (1) Approximately 65% of the total dissolved organic carbon and 53% of the total NO3--N were preferentially discharged at the first stage T1, with enrichment ratios of 1.60 similar to 1.94. (2) The dissolved organic matter discharged at T1 was noticeably more biodegradable with significantly lower SUVA(254) but higher HIX, and also predominated with humic-like, dissolved microbial metabolite-like, and fulvic acid-like components. (3) After added to the soil, the meltwater discharged at T1 (e.g., Soil+T1) significantly accelerated the mineralization of soil organic carbon with 2.4 similar to 8.07-folded k factor after fitted into the first-order kinetics equation, triggering 125 similar to 152% more total CO2 emissions. Adding T1 also promoted significantly more accumulation of soil microbial biomass carbon after 15 days of incubation, especially on the FT soil. Overall, the preferential discharge of the nutrient-enriched meltwater with more biodegradable DOM components at the initial melting stage significantly promoted the microbial growth and respiratory activities in the recipient soil, and triggered sizable CO2 emission pulses. This reveals a common but long-ignored phenomenon in cold riparian zones, where progressive freeze-thaw can partition and thus shift the DOM compositions in stream water over melting time, and in turn profoundly perturb the biochemical cycles of the neighbor soil body.

Permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere has been degrading under climate change, affecting climatic, hydrological, and ecological systems. To reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics of permafrost degradation under climate change, we quantified permafrost thermal states and active layer thicknesses using observational data covering various periods and different areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The soil temperatures at 20 cm depth in the circumpolar Arctic permafrost regions were much lower than in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The thaw period is 114 days in the circumpolar permafrost regions compared to 167 days in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The active layer thickness (ALT) was largest in transitional permafrost regions and sporadic permafrost regions, and lowest in the high latitude permafrost regions and continuous permafrost regions, and the ALT generally exhibited an increasing trend. The average ALT was 1.7 m, and increased by 3.6 cm per year in the Northern Hemisphere. The mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was largest in the high-altitude permafrost regions and isolated permafrost regions, and lowest in the high latitude permafrost regions and continuous permafrost regions. The warming rate of the MAGT was largest in the high latitude regions and lowest in the high altitude regions, and gradually increased from isolated permafrost regions to continuous permafrost regions, with an average warming rate of 0.3 degrees C per decade for the whole Northern Hemisphere. These findings provide important information for understanding the variability in permafrost degradation processes across different regions under climate change.

In Central Asia, the ground thermal regime is strongly affected by the interplay between topographic factors and ecosystem properties. In this study, we investigate the governing factors of the ground thermal regime in an area in Central Mongolia, which features discontinuous permafrost and is characterized by grassland and forest ecosystems. Miniature temperature dataloggers were used to measure near-surface temperatures at c. 100 locations throughout the 6 km2 large study area, with the goal to obtain a sample of sites that can represent the variability of different topographic and ecosystem properties. Mean annual near-surface ground temperatures showed a strong variability, with differences of up to 8 K. The coldest sites were all located in forests on north-facing slopes, while the warmest sites are located on steep south-facing slopes with sparse steppe vegetation. Sites in forests show generally colder near-surface temperatures in spring, summer and fall compared to grassland sites, but they are warmer during the winter season. The altitude of the measurement sites did not play a significant role in determining the near-surface temperatures, while especially solar radiation was highly correlated. In addition, we investigated the suitability of different hyperspectral indices calculated from Sentinel-2 as predictors for annual average near-surface ground temperatures. We found that especially indices sensitive to vegetation properties, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), show a strong correlation. The presented observations provide baseline data on the spatiotemporal patterns of the ground thermal regime which can be used to train or validate modelling and remote sensing approaches targeting the impacts of climate change.