Climate change is reshaping the risk landscape for natural gas pipelines, with landslides emerging as a major driver of technological accidents triggered by natural hazards (Natech events). Conventional Natech risk models rarely incorporate climate-sensitive parameters such as groundwater levels and soil moisture, limiting their capacity to capture evolving threats. This study develops a probabilistic model that explicitly links climate-driven landslide susceptibility to pipeline vulnerability, providing a quantitative basis for assessing pipeline failure probability under different emission projection scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulations across five regions in China, the results show that under high-emission pathways (SSP5-8.5), pipeline failure probability in summer increases dramatically. For example, from 0.320 to 0.943 in Xinjiang, 0.112 to 0.220 in Sichuan, and 0.087 to 0.188 in Hainan. In cold regions, winter failure probability more than doubles, rising from 0.206 to 0.501 in Heilongjiang and from 0.235 to 0.488 in Beijing. These shifts reveal an overall increase in risk, intensification of seasonal contrasts, and, in some areas, a reconfiguration of high-risk periods. Sensitivity analysis highlights groundwater levels and soil moisture as the dominant drivers, with regional differences shaped by precipitation regimes, permafrost thaw, and typhoon impacts. Building on these insights, this study proposes an AI-based condition-monitoring framework that integrates real-time climate and geotechnical data to support adaptive early warning and safety management.

Climate warming has impacted the sustainability of freshwater supply in the global water tower unit (WTU) zone. The rainfall infiltration process, a key component of WTUs supply, is affected by freeze-thaw cycles, yet it remains uncertain whether it has undergone corresponding changes. We propose a temperature-mediated infiltration model considering changes in soil water holding, water potential, and hydraulic conductivity due to varying degrees of freezing under negative temperature. Using this model, we calculate the infiltration of 78 WTUs globally from 1980 to 2023. Our results indicate that global WTUs have a multi-year average infiltration of 26 similar to 2359 mm/year. Notably, WTUs in the key latitudinal zone (24 degrees S-42 degrees N) contribute 54 % of the total infiltration volume, showing expanding differences in infiltration characteristics compared to other regions. While rainfall primarily influences infiltration and infiltration capacity, soil temperature and initial soil water content also significantly impact these characteristics. Enhanced infiltration capacity promotes vegetation growth, though the relationship is not linear. Variations in infiltration characteristics threaten the water resource buffering and the stability of downstream living ecological water supply of WTUs. This study provides crucial references for the integrated management of water resources and ecological conservation amid changing infiltration characteristics.

Near-surface temperature and moisture are key boundary conditions for simulating permafrost distribution, projecting its response to climate change, and evaluating the surface energy balance in alpine regions. However, in desertified permafrost zones of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the observations remain sparse, and reported trends vary considerably among sites. This lack of consistent evidence limits the ability to represent microenvironmental processes in models and to predict their influence on permafrost stability. From September 2021 to August 2024, we conducted continuous observations at a desertified permafrost site on the central QTP, covering the vertical range from 150 cm above to 100 cm below the ground surface (boundary layer). Measurements included air and ground temperature, air humidity, soil moisture, wind speed, and net radiation. Results showed that the mean annual air temperature increased with decreasing height at a gradient of approximately 0.42 degrees C/m, while mean annual air humidity remained nearly constant at 56.8 +/- 1.1 % (150-0 cm). In the near-surface soil layer (0 similar to -10 cm), temperature rose by 3.6 +/- 0.1 degrees C and moisture decreased by 34.0 +/- 2.7 %. The mean annual ground temperature increased with depth at a rate of about 0.55 degrees C/m, whereas soil moisture decreased between -20 and -60 cm (52.86 %/m) and increased between -60 and -100 cm (56.30 %/m). Seasonal patterns showed marked difference: in the freezing season, the calculated total temperature increment within the boundary layer (1.91 degrees C) was 61 % lower than the observed value (4.88 degrees C), while in the thawing season, it was 58 % higher (4.38 degrees C > 2.77 degrees C). These results reveal strong vertical gradients and seasonal contrasts in thermal and moisture regimes, emphasizing the need to integrate coupled temperature-moisture processes into boundary layer parameterizations for cold-region environments. Improved representations can enhance permafrost modeling and inform infrastructure design in regions experiencing both warming and desertification.

The thermal coupling between the atmosphere and the subsurface on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) governs permafrost stability, surface energy balance, and ecosystem processes, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics under accelerated warming are poorly understood. This study quantifies soil-atmosphere thermal coupling ((3) at the critical 0.1 m root-zone depth using in-situ data from 99 sites (1980-2020) and a machine learning framework. Results show significantly weaker coupling in permafrost (PF) zones (mean (3 = 0.42) than in seasonal frost (SF) zones (mean (3 = 0.50), confirming the powerful thermal buffering of permafrost. Critically, we find a widespread trend of weakening coupling (decreasing (3) at 66.7 % of sites, a phenomenon most pronounced in SF zones. Our driver analysis reveals that the spatial patterns of (3 are primarily controlled by surface insulation from summer rainfall and soil moisture. The temporal trends, however, are driven by a complex and counter-intuitive interplay. Paradoxically, rapid atmospheric warming is the strongest driver of a strengthening of coupling, likely due to the loss of insulative snow cover, while trends toward wetter conditions drive a weakening of coupling by enhancing surface insulation. Spatially explicit maps derived from our models pinpoint hotspots of accelerated decoupling in the eastern and southern QTP, while also identifying high-elevation PF regions where coupling is strengthening, signaling a loss of protective insulation and increased vulnerability to degradation. These findings highlight a dynamic and non-uniform response of land-atmosphere interactions to climate change, with profound implications for the QTP's cryosphere, hydrology, and ecosystems.

Here, we present the result of different models for active layer thickness (ALT) in an area of the Italian Central Alps where a few information about the ALT is present. Looking at a particular warm year (2018), we improved PERMACLIM, a model used to calculate the Ground Surface Temperature (GST) and applied two different versions of Stefan's equation to model the ALT. PERMACLIM was updated refining the temporal basis (daily respect the monthly means) of the air temperature and the snow cover. PERMACLIM was updated also to minimize the bias of the snow cover in summer months using the PlanetScope images. Moreover, the contribution of the solar radiation was added to the air temperature to improve the summer GST. The modelled GST showed a good calibration and, among the two versions of Stefan's equation, the first (ALT1) indicates a maximum active layer thickness of 7.5 m and showed a better accuracy with R2 of 0.93 and RMSE of 0.32 m. The model underlined also the importance of better definition of the thermal conductivity of the ground that can strongly influence the ALT.

The High Arctic deserts of remote northern Greenland are expected to become warmer and wetter due to climate change. Precipitation changes will increase fluctuations in surface soil salinity, and the same happens for thawed permafrost soil where stable salt concentrations are replaced with fluctuating salinity during annual freeze-thaw cycles. Both have unknown effects on the microbial communities and their emissions of microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOCs). These compounds are produced from various pathways mainly as secondary metabolites and have ecological and climatic implications when released into the environment and the atmosphere. Thus, it is important to explore the effects of environmental changes, such as changes in salinity, on soil microbial communities and their MVOC emissions. Here, we characterize the MVOC production of three novel bacterial isolates from northern Greenland throughout their growth period under low, moderate, and high salt concentrations. We demonstrate that salinity significantly alters both the quantity and composition of MVOCs emitted by all three strains, including changes in the emissions of sulphur- and nitrogen-containing compounds, potentially leading to ecosystem nutrient loss. The observed changes in MVOC profiles suggest that changes in soil salinity due to climate change could alter microbial metabolism and MVOC emissions, with potential implications for Arctic nutrient cycling and atmospheric chemistry. Novel Arctic bacterial isolates were found to produce diverse microbial volatile organic compounds, including sulphur- and nitrogen-containing gases, with emissions strongly shaped by changing soil salinity

Aim Alaska's boreal forest is experiencing increasingly severe fires, droughts, and pest attacks that may destabilize carbon sequestration. Our aim was to understand boreal forest resilience to changing wildfire regimes using remote-sensed datasets validated with ground-truthing (GT).Location Five recently burned boreal forest sites (2010-2019) near Fairbanks, Alaska.Methods We used four AVIRIS-NG hyperspectral image datasets (425 spectral bands at 5-nm intervals; 3.5 x 43 km average swath) imaged by NASA in 2017-2018 during the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). Spectral analysis included fire fuel loads and random forest (RF) models constructed from key bands to describe common pre- and postburned vegetation classes. Models were validated with 89 GT plots inside the AVIRIS scenes. GT included tree stem densities, understory cover, soil characteristics, radial growth of 51 spruce trees from cores, and visual damage assays of 668 conifers and deciduous trees.Results Spectral evidence of high fuel loads in 2017 pre-dated a 2019 wildfire. Post-GT local models described vegetation more accurately than pre-GT, but accuracy decreased when spectral rulesets were broadened to increase overall classification. Soil temperature, basal area, slope, elevation, and tree density varied widely; thaw depth, soil moisture, moss cover, and canopy height varied mainly by vegetation class. Invasive species and thermokarst were insignificant. Deciduous seedlings were abundant in postburned sites; however, conifer seedling densities were similar to unburned forest. Upland spruce radial growth showed earlier drought sensitivity than lowland spruce.Conclusion Spectral analysis revealed fire vulnerability in some areas; however, local and temporal spectral variation presented challenges to accurately classify vegetation in AVIRIS scenes. GT suggests that recovering forests near Fairbanks may lack sufficient conifer recruitment to replace existing stands. Sites with stable seasonal thaw may offset drought stress under global warming.

Central and Eastern European geography, shaped by its entanglement of natural and social sciences, provides a distinctive lens for rethinking the unity of the discipline. Its historical and institutional hybridity makes the region particularly well positioned to foster integrative geographical perspectives. The objective of this study was to evaluate the present, post-transitional state of the discipline in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), to identify its future trajectory and to uncover the significant role of CEE geography in addressing global environmental, social and economic challenges. To facilitate this process, four significant geographical topics have been identified as potentially providing a conducive environment for the partial reintegration of geography. The aforementioned themes encompass a range of topics, including migrations, the green transition, anthropogenic climate change, global tipping points, wetland disturbance, peatland carbon sequestration and cryosphere degradation. Furthermore, we have sought to assess the perspective and significance of geographical unity in addressing global crises that impact human life on Earth. This analysis has enabled the identification of critical issues that necessitate integrated approaches. The necessity for enhanced collaboration between physical and human geography, as well as between nature studies and social and economic explorations, is emphasised. In this regard, it is acknowledged that a more inclusive approach is employed in the field of CEE geography, with contributions from other disciplines such as biology, ecology, physics, sociology and economics being welcomed. These disciplines address processes that span from local to global scales, as well as those that study long-term phenomena, such as history and archaeology. The establishment of robust interdisciplinary networks has the potential to enhance the scientific standing of integrated geography and to strengthen innovative connections between human and physical geography.

To investigate the effect of interface temperature on the soil-reinforcement interaction mechanism, a series of pullout tests were conducted considering different types of reinforcement (geogrid and non-woven geotextile), backfill (dry sand, wet sand, and clay), and six interface temperatures. The test results indicate that at interface temperatures of 0 degrees C and above, reinforcement failure didn't occur during the pullout tests, whereas it predominantly occurred at subzero temperatures. Besides, the pullout resistance for the same soil-reinforcement interface gradually decreased as the interface temperature rose. At a given positive interface temperature, the pullout resistance between wet sand and reinforcement was significantly higher than that of the clayreinforcement interface but lower than that of the dry sand-reinforcement interface. Compared with geotextile reinforcements, geogrids were more difficult to pull out under the same interface temperature and backfill conditions. In addition, the lag effect in the transfer of tensile forces within the reinforcements was significantly influenced by the type of soil-reinforcement interface and the interface temperature. Finally, the progressive deformation mechanism along the reinforcement length at different interface temperatures was analyzed based on the strain distribution in the reinforcement.

The root-knot nematode, Meloidogyne javanica, is one of the most damaging plant-parasitic nematodes, affecting chickpea and causing substantial yield losses worldwide. The damage potential and population dynamics of this nematode in chickpea in Ethiopia have yet to be investigated. In this study, six chickpea cultivars were tested using 12 ranges of initial population densities (Pi) of M. javanica second-stage juveniles (J2): 0, 0.125, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 and 128 J2 (g dry soil)-1 in a controlled glasshouse pot experiment. The Seinhorst yield loss and population dynamics models were fitted to describe population development and the effect on different measured growth variables. The tolerance limit (TTFW) for total fresh weight ranged from 0.05 to 1.22 J2 (g dry soil)-1, with corresponding yield losses ranging from 31 to 64%. The minimum yield for seed weight (mSW) ranged from 0.29 to 0.61, with estimated yield losses of 71 and 39%. The 'Haberu' and 'Geletu' cultivars were considered good hosts, with maximum population densities (M) of 16.27 and 5.64 J2 (g dry soil)-1 and maximum multiplication rate (a) values of 6.25 and 9.23, respectively. All other cultivars are moderate hosts for M. javanica; therefore, it is crucial to initiate chickpea-breeding strategies to manage the tropical root-knot nematode M. javanica in Ethiopia.