The soil freezing and thawing process affects soil physical properties, such as heat conductivity, heat capacity, and hydraulic conductivity in frozen ground regions, and further affects the processes of soil energy, hydrology, and carbon and nitrogen cycles. In this study, the calculation of freezing and thawing front parameterization was implemented into the earth system model of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS-ESM) and its land component, the Common Land Model (CoLM), to investigate the dynamic change of freezing and thawing fronts and their effects. Our results showed that the developed models could reproduce the soil freezing and thawing process and the dynamic change of freezing and thawing fronts. The regionally averaged value of active layer thickness in the permafrost regions was 1.92 m, and the regionally averaged trend value was 0.35 cm yr(-1). The regionally averaged value of maximum freezing depth in the seasonally frozen ground regions was 2.15 m, and the regionally averaged trend value was -0.48 cm yr(-1). The active layer thickness increased while the maximum freezing depth decreased year by year. These results contribute to a better understanding of the freezing and thawing cycle process.

Permafrost play an important role in regulating global climate system. We analyzed the gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and evapotranspiration (ET) derived from MODIS and three earth system models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the Asian permafrost region. The water use efficiency (WUE) was further computed. The simulated GPP, NPP, and ET show slightly increasing trends during historical period (19002014) and strong increasing trends in projection period (20152100), and projected impacts of climate change on all variables are greater under high-emission scenarios than low-emission scenarios. Further analysis revealed higher increases in GPP and NPP than that of ET, indicating that vegetation carbon sequestration governs the growing WUE under historical and projected periods in this region. The GPP, NPP and ET showed higher changing rates in western, central and southeast areas of this region, and WUE (WUEGPP, and WUENPP) shows the similar spatial pattern. Compared to MODIS-derived GPP, NPP, and ET during 20002014, Earth system models yield the best estimates for NPP, while slight underestimations for GPP and ET, and thus slight overestimations for WUEGPP and WUENPP. This study highlights the predominant role of vegetation activity in regulating regional WUE in Asian permafrost region under future climate change. Vegetation domination of the growing water use efficiency implies that the permafrost region may continue acting efficiently in sequestrating atmospheric carbon in terms of water consumption throughout the 21st century.

The effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic gases and aerosols under present-day conditions relative to preindustrial conditions is estimated using the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) as part of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) and Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP), endorsed by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The global mean total anthropogenic net ERF estimate at the top of the atmosphere is 1.96 W m(-2)and is composed primarily of positive forcings due to carbon dioxide (1.85 W m(-2)), methane (0.71 W m(-2)), and halocarbons (0.30 W m(-2)) and negative forcing due to the total aerosols (- 1.22 W m(-2)). The total aerosol ERF consists of 23% from aerosol-radiation interactions (- 0.32 W m(-2)), 71% from aerosol-cloud interactions (- 0.98 W m(-2)), and slightly from surface albedo changes caused by aerosols (0.08 W m(-2)). The ERFs due to aerosol-radiation interactions consist of opposing contributions from light-absorbing black carbon (BC) (0.25 W m(-2)) and from light-scattering sulfate (- 0.48 W m(-2)) and organic aerosols (- 0.07 W m(-2)) and are pronounced over emission source regions. The ERFs due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) are prominent over the source and downwind regions, caused by increases in the number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets in low-level clouds. Concurrently, increases in the number concentration of ice crystals in high-level clouds (temperatures < -38 degrees C), primarily induced by anthropogenic BC aerosols, particularly over tropical convective regions, cause both substantial negative shortwave and positive longwave ERFaci values in MRI-ESM2.0. These distinct forcings largely cancel each other; however, significant longwave radiative heating of the atmosphere caused by high-level ice clouds suggests the importance of further studies on the interactions of aerosols with ice clouds. Total anthropogenic net ERFs are almost entirely positive over the Arctic due to contributions from the surface albedo reductions caused by BC. In the Arctic, BC provides the second largest contribution to the positive ERFs after carbon dioxide, suggesting a possible important role of BC in Arctic surface warming.

Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and active-layer thickness are used in earth system models (ESMs) to predict anthropogenic and climatic impacts on soil carbon dynamics, future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated climate changes in the permafrost regions. Accurate representation of spatial and vertical distribution of these soil properties in ESMs is a prerequisite for reducing existing uncertainty in predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. We compared the spatial representation of SOC stocks and active-layer thicknesses predicted by the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ESMs with those predicted from geospatial predictions, based on observation data for the state of Alaska, USA. For the geospatial modeling, we used soil profile observations (585 for SOC stocks and 153 for active-layer thickness) and environmental variables (climate, topography, land cover, and surficial geology types) and generated fine-resolution (50-m spatial resolution) predictions of SOC stocks (to 1-m depth) and active-layer thickness across Alaska. We found large inter-quartile range (2.5-5.5 m) in predicted active-layer thickness of CMIP5 modeled results and small inter-quartile range (11.5-22 kg m(-2)) in predicted SOC stocks. The spatial coefficient of variability of active-layer thickness and SOC stocks were lower in CMIP5 predictions compared to our geospatial estimates when gridded at similar spatial resolutions (24.7 compared to 30% and 29 compared to 38%, respectively). However, prediction errors, when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions. Primary factors leading to observed differences were (1) lack of spatial heterogeneity in ESM predictions, (2) differences in assumptions concerning environmental controls, and (3) the absence of pedogenic processes in ESM model structures. Our results suggest that efforts to incorporate these factors in ESMs should reduce current uncertainties associated with ESM predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A version of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU) is used to simulate the current and future atmosphere following the representative concentration partway scenarios for stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (RCP4.5) and radiative forcing of 8.5 W m(-2) (RCP8.5). Part I describes the results from a comprehensive evaluation of current decadal simulations. Radiation and most meteorological variables are well simulated in CESM-NCSU. Cloud parameters are not as well simulated due in part to the tuning of model radiation and general biases in cloud variables common to all global chemistry-climate models. The concentrations of most inorganic aerosol species (i.e., SO42-, NH4+, and NO3-) are well simulated with normalized mean biases (NMBs) typically less than 20%. However, some notable exceptions are European NH4+, which is overpredicted by 33.0-42.2% due to high NH3 emissions and irreversible coarse mode condensation, and Cl-, that is negatively impacted by errors in emissions driven by wind speed and overpredicted HNO3. Carbonaceous aerosols are largely underpredicted following the RCP scenarios due to low emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and anthropogenic volatile compounds in the RCP inventory and efficient wet removal. This results in underpredictions of PM2.5 and PM10 by 6.4-55.7%. The column mass abundances are reasonably well simulated. Larger biases occur in surface mixing ratios of trace gases in CESM-NCSU, likely due to numerical diffusion from the coarse grid spacing of the CESM-NCSU simulations or errors in the magnitudes and vertical structure of emissions. This is especially true for SO2 and NO2. The mixing ratio of O-3 is overpredicted by 38.9-76.0% due to the limitations in the O-3 deposition scheme used in CESM and insufficient titration resulted from large underpredictions in NO2. Despite these limitations, CESM-NCSU reproduces reasonably well the current atmosphere in terms of radiation, clouds, meteorology, trace gases, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions, making it suitable for future climate simulations. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The carbon cycle is one of the fundamental climate change issues. Its long-term evolution largely affects the amplitude and trend of human-induced climate change, as well as the formulation and implementation of emission reduction policy and technology for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Two earth system models incorporating the global carbon cycle, the Community Earth System Model and the Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model, were used to investigate the effect of the carbon cycle on the attribution of the historical responsibility for climate change. The simulations show that when compared with the criterion based on cumulative emissions, the developed (developing) countries' responsibility is reduced (increased) by 6 %-10 % using atmospheric CO2 concentration as the criterion. This discrepancy is attributed to the fact that the developed world contributed approximately 61 %-68 % (61 %-64 %) to the change in global oceanic (terrestrial) carbon sequestration for the period from 1850 to 2005, whereas the developing world contributed approximately 32 %-49 % (36 %-39 %). Under a developed world emissions scenario, the relatively larger uptake of global carbon sinks reduced the developed countries' responsibility for carbon emissions but increased their responsibility for global ocean acidification (68 %). In addition, the large emissions from the developed world reduced the efficiency of the global carbon sinks, which may affect the long-term carbon sequestration and exacerbate global warming in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to further consider the interaction between carbon emissions and the carbon cycle when formulating emission reduction policy.

Increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and associated changes in climate may exert large impacts on plant physiology and the density of vegetation cover. These may in turn provide feedbacks on climate through a modification of surface-atmosphere fluxes of energy and moisture. This paper uses asynchronously coupled models of global vegetation and climate to examine the responses of potential vegetation to different aspects of a doubled-CO2 environmental change, and compares the feedbacks on near-surface temperature arising from physiological and structural components of the vegetation response. Stomatal conductance reduces in response to the higher CO2 concentration, but rising temperatures and a redistribution of precipitation also exert significant impacts on this property as well as leading to major changes in potential vegetation structure. Overall, physiological responses act to enhance the warming near the surface, but in many areas this is offset by increases in leaf area resulting from greater precipitation and higher temperatures. Interactions with seasonal snow cover result in a positive feedback on winter warming in the boreal forest regions.