Precipitation comes in various phases, including rainfall, snowfall, sleet, and hail. Shifts of precipitation phases, as well as changes in precipitation amount, intensity, and frequency, have significant impacts on regional climate, hydrology, ecology, and the energy balance of the land-atmosphere system. Over the past century, certain progress has been achieved in aspects such as the observation, discrimination, transformation, and impact of precipitation phases. Mainly including: since the 1980s, studies on the observation, formation mechanism, and prediction of precipitation phases have gradually received greater attention and reached a certain scale. The estimation of different precipitation phases using new detection theories and methods has become a research focus. A variety of discrimination methods or schemes, such as the potential thickness threshold method of the air layer, the temperature threshold method of the characteristic layer, and the near-surface air temperature threshold method, have emerged one after another. Meanwhile, comparative studies on the discrimination accuracy and applicability assessment of multiple methods or schemes have also been carried out simultaneously. In recent years, the shift of precipitation from solid to liquid (SPSL) in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has become more pronounced due to global warming and human activities. It leads to an increase in rain-on-snow (ROS) events and avalanche disasters, affecting the speed, intensity, and duration of spring snow-melting, accelerating sea ice and glacier melting, releasing carbon from permafrost, altering soil moisture, productivity, and phenological characteristics of ecosystems, and thereby affecting their structures, processes, qualities, and service functions. Although some progress has been made in the study of precipitation phases, there remains considerable research potential in terms of completeness of basic data, reliability of discrimination schemes, and the mechanistic understanding of the interaction between SPSL and other elements or systems. The study on shifts of precipitation phases and their impacts will play an increasingly important role in assessing the impacts of global climate change, water cycle processes, water resources management, snow and ice processes, snow and ice-related disasters, carbon emissions from permafrost, and ecosystem safety.
Pollutant emissions in China have significantly decreased over the past decade and are expected to continue declining in the future. Aerosols, as important pollutants and short-lived climate forcing agents, have significant but currently unclear climate impacts in East Asia as their concentrations decrease until mid-century. Here, we employ a well-developed regional climate model RegCM4 combined with future pollutant emission inventories, which are more representative of China to investigate changes in the concentrations and climate effects of major anthropogenic aerosols in East Asia under six different emission reduction scenarios (1.5 degrees C goals, Neutral-goals, 2 degrees C -goals, NDC-goals, Current-goals, and Baseline). By the 2060s, aerosol surface concentrations under these scenarios are projected to decrease by 89%, 87%, 84%, 73%, 65%, and 21%, respectively, compared with those in 2010-2020. Aerosol climate effect changes are associated with its loadings but not in a linear manner. The average effective radiative forcing at the surface in East Asia induced by aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions will diminish by 24% +/- 13% by the 2030s and 35% +/- 13% by the 2060s. These alternations caused by aerosol reductions lead to increases in near-surface temperatures and precipitations. Specifically, aerosol-induced temperature and precipitation responses in East Asia are estimated to change by -78% to -20% and -69% to 77%, respectively, under goals with different emission scenarios in the 2060s compared to 2010-2020. Therefore, the significant climate effects resulting from substantial reductions in anthropogenic aerosols need to be fully considered in the pathway toward carbon neutrality.
Research in geocryology is currently principally concerned with the effects of climate change on permafrost terrain. The motivations for most of the research are (1) quantification of the anticipated net emissions of CO2 and CH4 from warming and thaw of near-surface permafrost and (2) mitigation of effects on infrastructure of such warming and thaw. Some of the effects, such as increases in ground temperature or active-layer thickness, have been observed for several decades. Landforms that are sensitive to creep deformation are moving more quickly as a result, and Rock Glacier Velocity is now part of the Essential Climate Variable Permafrost of the Global Climate Observing System. Other effects, for example, the occurrence of physical disturbances associated with thawing permafrost, particularly the development of thaw slumps, have noticeably increased since 2010. Still, others, such as erosion of sedimentary permafrost coasts, have accelerated. Geochemical effects in groundwater from trace elements, including contaminants, and those that issue from the release of sediment particles during mass wasting have become evident since 2020. Net release of CO2 and CH4 from thawing permafrost is anticipated within two decades and, worldwide, may reach emissions that are equivalent to a large industrial economy. The most immediate local concerns are for waste disposal pits that were constructed on the premise that permafrost would be an effective and permanent containment medium. This assumption is no longer valid at many contaminated sites. The role of ground ice in conditioning responses to changes in the thermal or hydrological regimes of permafrost has re-emphasized the importance of regional conditions, particularly landscape history, when applying research results to practical problems.
Atmospheric Brown Carbon (BrC) with strong wavelength-dependence light-absorption ability can significantly affect radiative forcing. Highly resolved emission inventories with lower uncertainties are important premise and essential in scientifically evaluating impacts of emissions on air quality, human health and climate change. This study developed a bottom-up inventory of primary BrC from combustion sources in China from 1960 to 2016 with a spatial resolution at 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees, based on compiled emission factors and detailed activity data. The primary BrC emission in China was about 593 Gg (500-735 Gg as interquartile range) in 2016, contributing to 7% (5%-8%) of a previously estimated global total BrC emission. Residential fuel combustion was the largest source of primary BrC in China, with the contribution of 67% as the national average but ranging from 25% to 99% among different provincial regions. Significant spatial disparities were also observed in the relative shares of different fuel types. Coal combustion contribution varied from 8% to 99% across different regions. Heilongjiang and North China Plain had high emissions of primary BrC. Generally, on the national scale, spatial distribution of BrC emission density per area was aligned with the population distribution. Primary BrC emission from combustion sources in China have been declined since a peak of similar to 1300 Gg in 1980, but the temporal trends were distinct in different sectors. The high-resolution inventory developed here enables radiative forcing simulations in future atmospheric models so as to promote better understanding of carbonaceous aerosol impacts in the Earth's climate system and to develop strategies achieving co-benefits of human health protection and climate change.
Aviation emissions contribute to climate change and local air pollution, with important contributions from non-CO2 emissions. These exhibit diverse impacts on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing (RF), varying with location, altitude, and time. Assessments of local mitigation strategies with global emission metrics may overlook this variability, but detailed studies of aviation emissions in areas smaller than continents are scarce. Integrating the AviTeam emission model and OsloCTM3, we quantify CO2, NOx, BC, OC, and SOx emissions, tropospheric concentration changes, RF, region-specific metrics, and assess alternative fuels for Norwegian domestic aviation. Mitigation potentials fora fuel switch to LH2 differ by up to 3.1 x 108 kgCO2-equivalents (GWP20) when using region-specific compared to global metrics. These differences result from a lower, region- specific contribution of non-CO2 emissions, particularly related to NOx. This study underscores the importance of accounting for non-CO2 variability in regional assessments, whether through region-specific metrics or advanced atmospheric modelling techniques.
The transition to cleaner cooking fuels currently ongoing in many low- and middle-income countries may have benefits for health, but also climate. We have studied the climate implications of the SE4ALL policy goal in Tanzania of 75 percent access to modern cooking solutions by 2030 in which mainly firewood and charcoal are replaced by LPG and electricity. To see the long-term climate benefit, we have estimated the reduction in CO2equivalent emissions (GWP100) and effect on global temperature until 2100 relative to the baseline for three explorative scenarios with different levels of ambition: baseline growth to nearly complete transition to modern cooking. Due to population growth the energy demand and CO2-eq. emissions increase even in the most ambitious energy transition scenario. We model reduction in global temperature in 2100 relative to the baseline to be between -0.63 and -2.9 milli degrees C. While we confirm the climate benefit of a transition to cleaner cooking fuels in households, the benefit is smaller than previously thought. This is mainly due to a much weaker radiative forcing of black carbon and somewhat stronger radiative forcing for organic carbon, in the climate parameters from IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.
The article is devoted to assessment of the anthropogenic influence in the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. The emission of the main pollutants and greenhouse gases from diesel generators used at Antarctic stations are estimated for the period since the beginning of the development of the oasis area (from 1986 to 2019). It is shown that SO 2 emissions decreased in 2019 compared to peak values in 1990 by 5.6 times, which was due to a significant decrease of the sulfur content in fuel. Emissions of other pollutants mostly increased. Surface air pollution by SO 2 , NO 2 , CO, PM 10 and black carbon (BC) using the AERMOD dispersion model are characterized. It is revealed that the most significant emission health impact is due to increase of surface concentrations of nitrogen dioxide. Deposition fluxes of PM 10 and BC are estimated. The fluxes of PM 10 and BC dry deposition in the territory of Larsemann Hills can reach maximum values of 27.5 and 21.7 mg/m 2 /year, respectively; can be traced in certain directions at a distance of up to 2.0 km or more. Modeling of BC deposition due to the dispersion of emission allowed to make draft estimates of soot concentration in the snow of the area and resulting radiative forcing climatic effects.
Black carbon (BC) exerts a profound and intricate impact on both air quality and climate due to its high light absorption. However, the uncertainty in representing the absorption enhancement of BC in climate models leads to an increased range in the modeled aerosol climate effects. Changes in BC optical properties could result either from atmospheric aging processes or from variations in its sources. In this study, a source-age model for identifying emission sources and aging states presented by University of California at Davis/California Institute of Technology (UCD/CIT) was used to simulate the atmospheric age distribution of BC from different sources and to quantify its impact on the optical properties of BC-containing particles. The results indicate that regions with greater aged BC concentrations do not correspond to regions with higher BC emissions due to atmospheric transport. High concentrations of aged BC are found in northern Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions during summer. The chemical compositions of particles from different sources and with different atmospheric ages differ significantly. BC and primary organic aerosols (POA) are dominating in Traffic-dominated source while other components dominate in Industry-dominated source. As the atmospheric age increases, the mass fraction of secondary inorganic aerosols rises. Compared to the original model, the simulated mass absorption cross of BC particles in the source-age model decreases while the single scattering albedo increases. This compensates for -11 % of the overestimation of the simulated BC direct radiative forcing. Our study highlights that
The lockdowns implemented during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic provide a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of emission sources and meteorological conditions on the trans-boundary transportation of black carbon (BC) aerosols to the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, we conducted an integrative analysis, including in-situ observational data, reanalysis datasets, and numerical simulations, and found a significant reduction in the trans-boundary transport of BC to the TP during the 2020 pre-monsoon season as a result of the lockdowns and restrictive measures. Specifically, we observed a decrease of 0.0211 mu g m- 3 in surface BC concentration over the TP compared to the 2016 pre-monsoon period. Of this reduction, approximately 6.04 % can be attributed to the decrease in emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, surpassing the 4.47 % decrease caused by changes in meteorological conditions. Additionally, the emission reductions have weakened the transboundary transport of South Asia BC to the TP by 0.0179 mu g m � 2s 1; indicating that the recurring spring atmospheric pollution from South Asia to the TP will be alleviated through the reduction of anthropogenic emissions. Moreover, it is important to note that BC deposition on glaciers contributes significantly to glacier melting due to its enrichment, posing a threat to the water sustainability of the TP. Therefore, urgent measures are needed to reduce emissions from adjacent regions to preserve the TP as the Asian Water Tower.
In this study, in situ observations were conducted for six criteria air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O-3) at 23 sites in western China for 1 year. Subsequently, the detailed Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) results for the pollutants were determined. The WRF-Chem model provided a clear perspective on the spatiotemporal distribution of air pollutants. High pollutant concentrations were mainly observed over highly populated mega-city regions, such as Sichuan and Guanzhong basins, whereas low concentration levels were observed over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The TP also showed an increased concentration of O-3. Seasonally, all six pollutants except O-3 exhibited high concentration values during winter and low values during summer. O-3 concentrations exhibited an opposite seasonal variation in low-altitude regions. Unlike other pollutants that exhibited gradually decreasing concentrations with an increase in altitude, O-3 concentrations revealed an increasing trend. Furthermore, NO2 concentrations gradually increased in the upper atmosphere possibly due to lighting and stratospheric transmission. Atmospheric pollution is closely related to emissions and meteorological variations in western China. Meteorological conditions in the summer are conducive to pollutant dispersion and wet scavenging; however, unfavourable weather conditions (high pressure as well as a low planetary boundary layer height and precipitation level) in the winter can further worsen air pollution. Atmospheric pollutants from various emission sectors generally exhibited varying monthly profiles. In six typical cities, pollutants were positively correlated with multiple emission sources except for industrial emissions. Further sensitivity simulations indicated that eliminating residential emissions resulted in the largest decrease (up to 70%) in PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations. The most significant reductions in the concentrations of SO2 and NO2 were achieved by eliminating industrial and transportation emissions, respectively. The outcomes of this study could be helpful for future studies on pollution formation mechanisms as well as environmental and health risk assessments in western China. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.