Permafrost underpins engineering in cold regions but is highly sensitive to climate change. The mechanisms linking climate warming, precipitation changes, and permafrost degradation to infrastructure stability remain poorly understood on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP). Here, we present a multi-factor framework to quantify climate impacts on permafrost engineering stability. Our findings reveal a 26.7% decline in permafrost engineering stability from 2015 to 2100, with areas of extremely poor stability expanding by 0.3 x 104 km2 per decade (SSP2-4.5) and 0.6 x 104 km2 per decade (SSP5-8.5). Meanwhile, regions with relatively better stability shrink by 2.0 x 104 km2 and 2.9 x 104 km2 per decade, respectively. These changes driven primarily by a warming and wetting climate pattern. Moreover, engineering stability is maintained in northwestern and interior regions, whereas warmer, ice-saturated areas in the central plateau and southern Qilian Mountains degrade rapidly. Notably, cold permafrost is warming faster than warm permafrost, increasing its vulnerability. These insights provide a critical basis for guiding the future design, construction, and maintenance of permafrost infrastructure, enabling the development of adaptive engineering strategies that account for projected climate change impacts.

Climate change and engineering activities are the leading causes of permafrost temperature increase, active layer thickening, and ground-ice thaw, which trigger changes in the engineering stability of embankments. Based on the important research advances on permafrost changes and frozen soil engineering in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, the changes in permafrost temperature and active layer thickness, their relationships with climate factors, the response process of engineering activities on permafrost, dynamic change of engineering stability of Qinghai-Xizang Railway, and the cooling mechanism and process of crushed-rock layers are discussed using the monitoring data of permafrost and embankment deformation. Finally, solutions to the key scientific problems of frozen soil engineering under climate change are proposed.