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Flash floods are often responsible for deaths and damage to infrastructure. The objective of this work is to create a data-driven model to understand how predisposing factors influence the spatial variation of the triggering factor (rainfall intensity) in the case of flash floods in the continental area of Portugal. Flash floods occurrences were extracted from the DISASTER database. We extracted the accumulated precipitation from the Copernicus database by considering two days of duration. The analysed predisposing factors for flooding were extracted considering the whole basin where each occurrence is located. These factors include the basin area, the predominant lithology, drainage density, and the mean or median values of elevation, slope, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), roughness, and four soil properties. The Random Forest algorithm was used to build the models and obtained mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) around 19%, an acceptable value for the objectives of the work. The median of SPI, mean elevation and the area of the basin are the top three most relevant predisposing factors interpreted by the model for defining the rainfall input for flash flooding in mainland Portugal.

期刊论文 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2025.2462179 ISSN: 1947-5705

Flash floods are highly destructive natural disasters, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions like Egypt, where data scarcity poses significant challenges for analysis. This study focuses on the Wadi Al-Barud basin in Egypt's Central Eastern Desert (CED), where a severe flash flood occurred on 26-27 October 2016. This flash flood event, characterized by moderate rainfall (16.4 mm/day) and a total volume of 8.85 x 106 m3, caused minor infrastructure damage, with 78.4% of the rainfall occurring within 6 h. A significant portion of floodwaters was stored in dam reservoirs, reducing downstream impacts. Multi-source data, including Landsat 8 OLI imagery, ALOS-PALSAR radar data, Global Precipitation Measurements-Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Final Run (GPM-FR) precipitation data, geologic maps, field measurements, and Triangulated Irregular Networks (TINs), were integrated to analyze the flash flood event. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method integrated with several hydrologic models, including the Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and European Hydrological System Model (MIKE-SHE), was applied to evaluate flood forecasting, watershed management, and runoff estimation, with results cross-validated using TIN-derived DEMs, field measurements, and Landsat 8 imagery. The SCS-CN method proved effective, with percentage differences of 5.4% and 11.7% for reservoirs 1 and 3, respectively. High-resolution GPM-FR rainfall data and ALOS-derived soil texture mapping were particularly valuable for flash flood analysis in data-scarce regions. The study concluded that the existing protection plan is sufficient for 25- and 50-year return periods but inadequate for 100-year events, especially under climate change. Recommendations include constructing additional reservoirs (0.25 x 106 m3 and 1 x 106 m3) along Wadi Kahlah and Al-Barud Delta, reinforcing the Safaga-Qena highway, and building protective barriers to divert floodwaters. The methodology is applicable to similar flash flood events globally, and advancements in geomatics and datasets will enhance future flood prediction and management.

期刊论文 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.3390/hydrology12030054

Flood is among the most disastrous natural disasters since they are responsible for massive damage to infrastructure, severe fatalities and injuries, innumerable economic losses, and social disruptions worldwide. These damages caused by floods have been worsening in recent years worldwide because of environmental degradation, climatic change, and high-speed urbanization. A rising precipitation rate increases the chances of floods in flood-vulnerable areas. A flash flood is a rapid flooding of geomorphic low-lying regions caused by remarkably high rainfall in a short duration. On September 23rd, 2023 a flooding event in the Nagpur, Maharashtra, it is directly impact on the human death and economic loss entire city. In the present study, the change in the dynamics of Nagpur city was analysed by employing remote sensing and GIS techniques to assess the change in the land use and land cover patterns. Landsat imagery of year 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2023 was used for land use and land cover classification. This analysis reveals that there is an increase in built-up area from 72.85 sq. km in year 2000 to 185.4 sq. km in year 2023. The built up land is increased this changes where directly affects the infiltration rate of rainwater into the soil. The total area covered by water bodies is reduced to 2.29 sq. km in 2023 which were 12.2 sq. km in year 2000. It is indicates the encroachment of built-up land on the water bodies. On the day of flash flood occurrence, it was observed that Nagpur city received 145 mm rainfall which is highest in the month of September, 2023. The Shannon entropy model was used to estimate the population dynamics and growth patterns of Nagpur city. Higher entropy values were obtained during the analysis which indicates the rapid transformation of city in all directions. Population dynamics of Nagpur city also indicate the inflation in population from 4,067,637 in 2000 to 4,653,570 in 2010. The SAR water index was calculated using Google Earth Engine to detect the water surges in residential areas during the flood. Precautionary measures should be taken by governing authorities to avoid such disasters. Proper city planning and improvements in drainage systems are recommended within the city. It is needed for an hour to develop a river monitoring system and early warning system, as well as preventive measures that should be implemented, like the construction of retaining walls to control the flood water.

期刊论文 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-86801-6 ISSN: 2045-2322

Flash floods are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological events in the world. The current study investigates flash floods on the northern Black Sea Coast. The data about stochastic and relatively stable factors of flash flood formation (such as hydrological, meteorological, lithological, geomorphological, and anthropogenic parameters) were collected for 22 events. The main trigger of flash floods is heavy rainfall of high intensity in the region but in some cases flash flood occurrence is connected with combinations of several non-critical factors. The small watershed area (<351 km(2)) of river basins experiencing flash floods promotes very rapid flow concentration. Analysis of extreme precipitation demonstrates significant increasing trends in river basins on the Crimean Peninsula and decreasing a maximum precipitation amount in 5 days (r5d) and 1 day (r1d) in river basins in the Caucasus Black Sea Coast in the 21st century as determined by processing of Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global precipitation measurement (IMEGR) satellite data. At the same time land network data indicates increasing r5d at the Anapa and r1d at the Tuapse meteorological stations in 1961-2020. More frequent occurrence of flash floods has been suggested in the area due to statistical analysis of the longest precipitation ranges. The main reason for significant social and economic damage is uncontrolled human activity in flooded areas on the northern Black Sea Coast. (c) 2024 International Research and Training Centre on Erosion and Sedimentation. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY- NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

期刊论文 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijsrc.2024.10.003 ISSN: 1001-6279

Bridge piers embedded in a riverain region are commonly supported by pile foundations. This provides a flexible restraint to the bridge pier instead of a theoretical rigid foundation type. In this work, a cylindrical bridge pier with a monopile foundation is introduced as an example. A modeling framework is proposed to investigate the dynamic response of bridge piers to the impact of flash flooding. The fluid-structure interaction is directly investigated via a two-way fluid-structure coupling approach and the p-y springs distributed over the interface between the soil and pile are adopted to model the lateral restraints from the soil. The effect of the soil-structure interaction (SSI) on the structural dynamic response is investigated on the basis of 3D numerical models with and without a pile foundation. Moreover, the soil around the pile foundation is vulnerable to erosion by flood flow. This continuous exposure of the pile foundation reduces the lateral load bearing capacity and consequently increases the dynamic responses of bridge structures to flash flooding. To demonstrate the effects of increased exposure of bridge pile foundations on structural dynamic responses, several different scour depths with scour ratios ranging from 0 to 0.5 are included in the numerical analysis. Two different considerations of the pile bottom are included in this study: completely fixed and only vertically fixed. The behavior of bridge piers subjected to flash flooding is thoroughly analyzed, and the damage mechanisms for these two foundation types are investigated. The relationships between peak responses and fundamental periods are determined via regression analysis.

期刊论文 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.istruc.2025.108199 ISSN: 2352-0124

Oil pipelines are susceptible to significant hydraulic erosion from mountain torrents during the flood season when passing through the mountain valley area, which can lead to soil erosion on the pipe surface and expose the pipeline. Accordingly, this study centers on investigating the critical issue of the failure mechanism caused by flash flood erosion in the exposed of oil pipelines. Both indoor testing and numerical simulation research methods are employed to analyze the flow field distribution characteristics of flash floods in proximity to an exposed pipeline. This study explores the patterns of soil loss around pipelines of varying pipe diameters, levels of exposure, and pipe flow angles. In addition, the spatial and temporal evolution mechanism of pipelines overhang development under the action of flash floods was elucidated. The experimental observations indicate that as the pipe diameter increases, the failure rate of the soil surrounding the pipe accelerates, while the erosion effect on the soil around the executives becomes more pronounced. Additionally, a larger pipe flow angle leads to a reduced soil loss in the downstream direction of the pipe. During flash flood events, the scouring action on the soil surrounding the pipe leads to rapid compression of the flow field around the pipe, while the vortex at the pipe's bottom exacerbates soil corrosion. Additionally, the maximum pressure exerted on pipeline surfaces at pipeline flow angles of 30 degrees, 60 degrees, and 90 degrees is 14,382 Pa, 16,146 Pa, and 17,974 Pa, respectively. The research results offer valuable insights into pipeline, soil, and water conservation projects in mountain valley regions.

期刊论文 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.3390/w17030448

Flash floods are one of the most prevalent natural disasters, triggering deadly damage to homesteads, crops, infrastructure, road networks, communications, and the natural environment in the Haor (Wetland) region of Bangladesh. The purpose of the study aims to identify eleven (11) hydro-geomorphological driving factors, namely elevation, slope, aspect, rainfall, land use and land cover (LULC), lithology, soil type, topographic wetness index (TWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), distance from the river, and drainage density, which are being explored for mapping flood-prone areas. This research has produced a flash flood susceptibility map using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytical Network Process (ANP), which are interactive decision-making approaches under multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in ArcGIS 10.8. The findings of this study showed that the susceptibility to flood hazards differs significantly among the seven Haor districts. As a result of the ANP and AHP, a more significant proportion of the Haor region is moderately susceptible to flooding (8685.09-9275.15 sq. km.), whereas 35.34 %-38.32 % (7069.70-7668.67 sq. km.) accounts for high susceptible to flooding. Furthermore, 200 flood locations were identified in the northeast Haor region, where 140 (70 %) randomly selected floods were used for training, and the remaining 60 (30 %) were employed for validation purposes. The validation results showed that the AHP model had greater prediction accuracy (the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) = 92.1 %) than the ANP (AUROC = 88.5%) model. Therefore, the study findings can be helpful for researchers, academics, policymakers, and planners for sustainable flood mitigation strategies, particularly in Haor areas.

期刊论文 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.watcyc.2024.09.003

The Himalayan foothills are highly prone to rainfall induced flash floods. This research focuses on the August 19-20, 2022 flash flood event in Song watershed of Doon valley, Uttarakhand caused significant damages to buildings and a road bridge. The study aims to assess the flood intensity through flood simulation in a semi-distributed hydrological model by utilizing rainfall data, land use and soil data. Further, the flood hydrographs generated through hydrological modelling were used to simulate hydrodynamic model to estimate flood depth. Pre and post-flood inundation assessments were conducted using PlanetScope and Sentinel-1 imagery. Furthermore, development activities on river courses were analyzed utilizing Google earth and Bing maps high resolution imagery. Cumulative rainfall observations revealed 344 mm rainfall in Rishikesh and 225 mm in Sahastradhara on 19-20 August for the 24 hrs, contributed in a peak flood discharge 2679 m(3)/s at the Rishikesh outlet. The simulated flood depth depicted 4.81 m flood depth at the damaged Thano-Bhogpur bridge. The PlanetScope satellite imagery showed 182 m expansion in the cross-sectional width of river at Maldevta after the flood. A 5.36 sq. km. flood area observed throughout the entire Song catchment in two days post event Sentinel-1 imagery. Analysis of high-resolution imageries revealed increasing development activities in floodplains of the catchment, which got affected by flood. The findings indicate urgent need of floodplain management by implementing comprehensive flood risk management plans including early warning systems, land-use regulations based on flood hazard zonation and flood resilient infrastructure to mitigate future flood exposure to society.

期刊论文 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2024.2378979 ISSN: 1947-5705

Floods in southwestern Saudi Arabia, especially in the Asir region, are among the major natural disasters caused by natural and human factors. In this region, flash floods that occur in the Wadi Hail Basin greatly affect human life and activities, damaging property, the built environment, infrastructure, landscapes, and facilities. A previous study carried out for the same basin has effectively revealed zones of flood risk using such an approach. However, the utilization of the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) model and IMERG data for delineating areas prone to flash floods remain unexplored. In response to this advantage, this work primarily focused on flood generation assessment in the Wadi Hail Basin, one of the major basins in the region that is frequently prone to severe flash flood damage, from a single extreme rainfall event. We employed a fully physical-based, distributed hydrological model run with HEC-HMS software version 4.11 and Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals of Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG V.06) data, as well as other geo-environmental variables, to simulate the water flow within the Wadi Basin, and predict flash flood hazard. Discharge from the wadi and its sub-basins was predicted using 1 mm rainfall over an 8-h occurrence time. Significant peak discharge (3.6 m3/s) was found in eastern and southern upstream sub-basins and crossing points, rather than those downstream, due to their high-density drainage network (0.12) and CNs (88.4). Generally, four flood hazard levels were identified in the study basin: 'low risk', 'moderate risk', 'high risk', and 'very high risk'. It was found that 43.8% of the total area of the Wadi Hail Basin is highly prone to flooding. Furthermore, medium- and low-hazard areas make up 4.5-11.2% of the total area, respectively. We found that the peak discharge value of sub-basin 11 (1.8 m3/s) covers 13.2% of the total Wadi Hail area; so, it poses more flood risk than other Wadi Hail sub-basins. The obtained results demonstrated the usefulness of the methods used to develop useful hydrological information in a region lacking ungagged data. This study will play a useful role in identifying the impact of extreme rainfall events on locations that may be susceptible to flash flooding, which will help authorities to develop flood management strategies, particularly in response to extreme events. The study results have potential and valuable policy implications for planners and decision-makers regarding infrastructural development and ensuring environmental stability. The study recommends further research to understand how flash flood hazards correlate with changes at different land use/cover (LULC) classes. This could refine flash flood hazards results and maximize its effectiveness.

期刊论文 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15060624

It is increasingly acknowledged that the acceleration of the global water cycle, largely driven by anthropogenic climate change, has a disproportionate impact on sub-daily and small-scale hydrological extreme events such as flash floods. These events occur thereby at local scales within minutes to hours, typically in response to high-intensity rainfall events associated with convective storms. In the present work, we show that by employing physically based representative hillslope models that resolve the main gradients controlling overland flow hydrology and hydraulics, we can get reliable simulations of flash flood response in small data-scarce catchments. To this end, we use climate reanalysis products and transfer soil parameters previously obtained for hydrological predictions in an experimental catchment in the same landscape. The inverted mass balance of flood reservoirs downstream is employed for model evaluation in these nearly ungauged basins. We show that our approach using representative hillslopes and climate data sets can provide reasonable uncalibrated estimates of the overland runoff response (flood magnitude, storm volume, and event runoff coefficients) in three of the four catchments considered. Given that flash floods typically occur at scales of a few km2 and in ungauged places, our results have implications for operational flash flood forecasting and open new avenues for using gradient resolving physically based models for the design of small and medium flood retention basins around the world. Flash floods have become increasingly common worldwide, with catastrophic damages to both human life and the economy. While the extent of global warming and climate change impacting these events is still under much debate, it is almost certain now that we need to be better equipped to understand and model these extremes to prevent and mitigate the possible risk to human life and infrastructure in a warming climate. To test, if we can use first principles derived from thermodynamic conservation laws and process based hydrological models for the same, we modeled flash flood response in four headwater catchments over Southern Germany using the concept of representative hillslope. Since the regions considered in our work are poorly gauged, we made use of global climate reanalysis products and parameter transfer from past experiments. The encouraging results obtained in predicting the flood magnitude and volume speak to the overall applicability of our approach. We are able to get decent uncalibrated predictions in three out of the four catchments considered with minimum computational effort. Understanding and managing the adverse impacts of such extreme hydroclimatic events remains one of the crucial hurdles facing humanity toward the sustainable development goals (SDG17) in this decade. Physically based representative hillslope models can be used for flash flood predictions in small data-scarce and rural catchments Climate reanalysis data enable the initialization of a process-based model, helping to reduce the uncertainties in estimating antecedent soil conditions Transfer of model parameters within the same hydrological landscape is feasible

期刊论文 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023WR036420 ISSN: 0043-1397
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