Identifying the changes in terrestrial water storage is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the regional hydrological mass balance under global climate change. This study used a partial least square regression model to fill the observation gaps between GRACE and GRACE-FO and obtained a complete series of terrestrial water storage anomaly data from April 2002 to December 2020 from southeast China. We investigated the variations in terrestrial water storage anomalies in the region and the influencing factors. The study revealed that terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies have been increasing in the region, with an average increase of 0.33 cm/yr (p < 0.01). The intra-annual variation showed a positive anomaly from March to September and a negative anomaly in other months. Terrestrial water storage anomalies increased in most regions (especially in the central and northern parts), whereas they decreased in the southern parts. In terms of the components, the soil moisture storage (SMS) contributes 58.3 % and the surface water storage (SWS, especially reservoirs water storage) contributes 41.4 % to the TWS. The study also found that changes in the precipitation explain approximately 71.7 % of the terrestrial water storage variation, and reservoirs contributes to the remaining 28.3 %. These results are essential for understanding the changes in the hydrological cycle and developing strategies for water management in Southeast China.
The southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP), which hosts the most extensive marine glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), exhibits enhanced sensitivity to climatic fluctuations. Under global warming, persistent glacier mass depletion within the SETP poses a risk to water resource security and sustainability in adjacent nations and regions. This study deployed a high-precision ICESat-2 satellite altimetry technique to evaluate SETP glacier thickness changes from 2018 to 2022. Our results show that the average change rate in glacier thickness in the SETP is -0.91 +/- 0.18 m/yr, and the corresponding glacier mass change is -7.61 +/- 1.52 Gt/yr. In the SETP, the glacier mass loss obtained via ICESat-2 data is larger than the mass change in total land water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment follow-on satellite (GRACE-FO), -5.13 +/- 2.55 Gt/yr, which underscores the changes occurring in other land water components, including snow (-0.44 +/- 0.09 Gt/yr), lakes (-0.06 +/- 0.02 Gt/yr), soil moisture (1.88 +/- 1.83 Gt/yr), and groundwater (1.45 +/- 0.70 Gt/yr), with a closure error of -0.35 Gt/yr. This demonstrates that this dramatic glacier mass loss is the main reason for the decrease in total land water storage in the SETP. Generally, there are decreasing trends in solid water storage (glacier and snow) against stable or increasing trends in liquid water storage (lakes, soil moisture, and groundwater) in the SETP. This persistent decrease in solid water is linked to the enhanced melting induced by rising temperatures. Given the decreasing trend in summer precipitation, the surge in liquid water in the SETP should be principally ascribed to the increased melting of solid water.
基于GRACE/GRACE-FO数据,分析了自2002年4月以来格陵兰冰盖的质量变化情况.结果表明:格陵兰冰盖质量经历了亏损较缓(2002-04—2009-12期间约-196±3 Gt/a)到快速亏损(2010-01—2012-12期间约-422±7 Gt/a)、亏损变缓(2013-01—2017-06期间约-170±15 Gt/a)以及再次快速亏损(2018-05—2021-09期间约-297±4 Gt/a)的变化过程.且相比时段2018-09—2020-08(质量亏损速率约-405±8 Gt/a),格陵兰冰盖在2019-09—2021-08的质量亏损速率明显减缓,约-139±7 Gt/a.格陵兰冰盖夏季质量亏损对其年总质量变化起着决定性作用,但2020年其在春、秋和冬季里质量累积量为近年来最大值,这减少了该年质量亏损总量.研究还表明:降水和融水径流是影响格陵兰冰盖质量变化的主导因素.
基于GRACE/GRACE-FO数据,分析了自2002年4月以来格陵兰冰盖的质量变化情况.结果表明:格陵兰冰盖质量经历了亏损较缓(2002-04—2009-12期间约-196±3 Gt/a)到快速亏损(2010-01—2012-12期间约-422±7 Gt/a)、亏损变缓(2013-01—2017-06期间约-170±15 Gt/a)以及再次快速亏损(2018-05—2021-09期间约-297±4 Gt/a)的变化过程.且相比时段2018-09—2020-08(质量亏损速率约-405±8 Gt/a),格陵兰冰盖在2019-09—2021-08的质量亏损速率明显减缓,约-139±7 Gt/a.格陵兰冰盖夏季质量亏损对其年总质量变化起着决定性作用,但2020年其在春、秋和冬季里质量累积量为近年来最大值,这减少了该年质量亏损总量.研究还表明:降水和融水径流是影响格陵兰冰盖质量变化的主导因素.
基于GRACE/GRACE-FO数据,分析了自2002年4月以来格陵兰冰盖的质量变化情况.结果表明:格陵兰冰盖质量经历了亏损较缓(2002-04—2009-12期间约-196±3 Gt/a)到快速亏损(2010-01—2012-12期间约-422±7 Gt/a)、亏损变缓(2013-01—2017-06期间约-170±15 Gt/a)以及再次快速亏损(2018-05—2021-09期间约-297±4 Gt/a)的变化过程.且相比时段2018-09—2020-08(质量亏损速率约-405±8 Gt/a),格陵兰冰盖在2019-09—2021-08的质量亏损速率明显减缓,约-139±7 Gt/a.格陵兰冰盖夏季质量亏损对其年总质量变化起着决定性作用,但2020年其在春、秋和冬季里质量累积量为近年来最大值,这减少了该年质量亏损总量.研究还表明:降水和融水径流是影响格陵兰冰盖质量变化的主导因素.
The northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP), bordering the endorheic lake basins and the Upper Yellow River region, has been disturbed by increasing human activities in recent years. The NETP water storage changes could be a combined effect of climate variability/change and human activities (e.g., reservoir operation). However, whether the human activities have evidently altered hydrological processes and become key drivers of total terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes in the NETP remains unclear. To explore the roles of human interventions in changing surface water storage (SWS) and thus influencing regional TWS changes in the NETP, in comparison with natural drivers, this study quantitatively disaggregated and compared the contributions of TWS changes from climate-dominated natural lakes and man-regulated reservoirs at different timescales. Time series of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) TWS anomalies (TWSA) exhibited an overall upward trend (0.78 +/- 0.06 Gt/yr, p < 0.01) with evident periodic fluctuations from April 2002 to August 2020. Although the GRACE TWSA was more substantially influenced by changes in natural lake water storage (0.96 +/- 0.02 Gt/ yr) rather than reservoirs (0.54 +/- 0.04 Gt/yr) in the long-term trend, the man-regulated reservoir water storage changes can significantly dominate the GRACE TWSA on interannual and intra-annual timescales, especially in the second sub-period (2013.01-2017.06; GRACE TWSA change rate:-1.82 +/- 0.29 Gt/yr, p < 0.01, in comparison with the change rate of reservoir water storage of-1.28 +/- 0.17 Gt/yr, and the natural lakes of 0.72 +/- 0.07 Gt/yr). In some abnormal years, the reservoir storage changes were even close to the overall signal of region-wide GRACE TWSA. In addition, the increase in soil moisture storage (long-term linear trend: 0.65 +/- 0.06 Gt/yr, p < 0.01) was also a key factor that cannot be neglected. Our results suggest that human activities are becoming one of the key factors influencing TWS changes in the NETP.
两极冰盖消融及其质量变化作为全球气候变化的重要指标之一,一直是联合国政府间专门气候委员会IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)报告的重点关注内容.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, 2002年4月—2017年6月)和GRACE-FO(GRACE Follow-on, 2018年5月至今)重力卫星,作为监测两极冰盖质量变化最直接和有效的手段,存在近一年的观测间断期.因此本文提出联合Swarm三颗低轨卫星观测资料(2015年1月—2019年6月)和ARIMA-MC(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model-Monte Carlo)预测方法来填补两组重力卫星间断期两极冰盖消融质量变化观测的时间序列,从而基于完整时间序列来研究两极冰盖质量时空变化规律.研究结果表明:(1)利用Swarm卫星反演得到的时变重力场信号和ARIMA-MC预测方法可以有效填补间断期两极冰盖消融质量变化的时间序列,但两种方法得到的结果也存在一定的差异;(2)...
两极冰盖消融及其质量变化作为全球气候变化的重要指标之一,一直是联合国政府间专门气候委员会IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)报告的重点关注内容.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, 2002年4月—2017年6月)和GRACE-FO(GRACE Follow-on, 2018年5月至今)重力卫星,作为监测两极冰盖质量变化最直接和有效的手段,存在近一年的观测间断期.因此本文提出联合Swarm三颗低轨卫星观测资料(2015年1月—2019年6月)和ARIMA-MC(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model-Monte Carlo)预测方法来填补两组重力卫星间断期两极冰盖消融质量变化观测的时间序列,从而基于完整时间序列来研究两极冰盖质量时空变化规律.研究结果表明:(1)利用Swarm卫星反演得到的时变重力场信号和ARIMA-MC预测方法可以有效填补间断期两极冰盖消融质量变化的时间序列,但两种方法得到的结果也存在一定的差异;(2)...
两极冰盖消融及其质量变化作为全球气候变化的重要指标之一,一直是联合国政府间专门气候委员会IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)报告的重点关注内容.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, 2002年4月—2017年6月)和GRACE-FO(GRACE Follow-on, 2018年5月至今)重力卫星,作为监测两极冰盖质量变化最直接和有效的手段,存在近一年的观测间断期.因此本文提出联合Swarm三颗低轨卫星观测资料(2015年1月—2019年6月)和ARIMA-MC(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model-Monte Carlo)预测方法来填补两组重力卫星间断期两极冰盖消融质量变化观测的时间序列,从而基于完整时间序列来研究两极冰盖质量时空变化规律.研究结果表明:(1)利用Swarm卫星反演得到的时变重力场信号和ARIMA-MC预测方法可以有效填补间断期两极冰盖消融质量变化的时间序列,但两种方法得到的结果也存在一定的差异;(2)...
GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力卫星任务的成功实施,极大推进了极地冰盖质量平衡、全球水循环和海水质量变化等领域的研究,其后续任务GRACE-FO(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On)于2018年5月成功发射,但两个卫星任务存在近一年的观测空白期.Swarm卫星于2013年11月成功发射,其任务由三颗在低轨道高度绕地球运行的卫星组成,搭载有GPS接收器、加速度计等装置,使得Swarm卫星具有恢复静态和时变重力场的能力.本文利用Swarm卫星观测反演格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化,通过与GRACE、GRACE-FO结果进行对比,验证其确定地表质量变化的能力,并基于GRACE、Swarm和GRACE-FO数据建立了2002年4月—2020年5月格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化时间序列,进一步利用温度和降水数据探讨冰盖消融的原因.结果表明:1)2013年12月—2017年6月,利用GRACE数据和Swarm数据确定的格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化时间序列的相关系数为0.652;2)2018年6月—2...