Lakes are commonly accepted as a sensitive indicator of regional climate change, including the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study took the Ranwu Lake, located in the southeastern TP, as the research object to investigate the relationship between the lake and regional hydroclimatological regimes. The well-known Budyko framework was utilized to explore the relationship and its causes. The results showed air temperature, evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration in the Ranwu Lake Basin generally increased, while precipitation, soil moisture, and glacier area decreased. The Budyko space indicated that the basin experienced an obviously drying phase first, and then a slightly wetting phase. An overall increase in lake area appears inconsistent with the drying phase of the basin climate. The inconsistency is attributable to the significant expansion of proglacial lakes due to glacial melting, possibly driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our findings should be helpful for understanding the complicated relationships between lakes and climate, and beneficial to water resources management under changing climates, especially in glacier basins.