Study region: The Northwest inland basins of China (NWC).Study focus: Terrestrial water resources, especially groundwater resources, are the main source of water for human activities and for maintaining the stability of the ecological environment in NWC. Excessive consumption of water resources will seriously affect the sustainable utilization of water resources and ecological security in this region. Therefore, it is urgent to clarify the long-term changes in water storage in this area in order to handle the pressure of future water re-sources and the natural environment. Using GRACE satellite datasets and global hydrological models (GHMs) products, this study analyzed spatiotemporal variations in terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA), soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and canopy interception combined anomalies (SSCA) in NWC through the application of the water balance, trend decomposition, and empirical orthogonal decomposition methods. Furthermore, the driving factors of water storage change and feasible water resource manage-ment strategies were discussed. New hydrological insights for the region: TWSA in the NWC has experienced a continuous decline over the past nearly 40 years, while SSCA has shown a weak increasing trend (0.03 cm yr-1). Since the availability of glacial retreat data (2003-2016), glacial water storage in the NWC has decreased by 0.09 cm per year, while TWSA, SSCA, and GWSA have changed at rates of -0.25, 0.02, and -0.18 cm yr-1, respectively. The North Tianshan Rivers Basin has become one of the areas with the most severe groundwater depletion in China. 2005-2010 was a turning period in the changes of TWSA, followed by widespread water loss across the NWC. Glacier and snow melt are the most important factors for the decline of TWSA in the Tianshan mountains area, and over -exploitation of groundwater by human activities is a secondary factor. For other regions, Groundwater losses remain the most significant contributor to TWSA losses. The massive loss of water storage in the Tianshan Mountains area, especially the accelerated retreat of glaciers, will affect the stable water supply to the middle and lower reaches of the oasis region, perhaps leading to increased groundwater extraction, which will threaten regional water security and sustainable development. Developing a water-saving society and implementing inter-basin water transfer arefeasible ways to alleviate the water resource crisis. Conducting a comprehensive analysis of all inland rivers in China helps to facilitate horizontal comparisons between various basins, thereby providing more comprehensive insights of water storage fluctuations. The data on water storage changes, extending back to 1980, provide a longer-term perspective on water resource changes in the region, which can contribute to enhancing water resource security and ecological environ-mental protection.

Despite that the supplying role of cryosphere (glaciers, permafrost, and snow) in groundwater storage (GWS) in Tibetan Plateau (TP) is well-known by comparing their long-term linear trends, the question whether GWS could in turn affect the variation of cryospheric variables remains controversial, since long-term trend analysis fails to distinguish the direction of their interplay. To find evidence of GWS causally affecting cryosphere, this research resorts to the causal inference community and investigates a novel causal interaction between GWS and cryosphere in TP: nonlinear dynamic causality (NDC), based on the Nonlinear Dynamic System (NDS) theory. The specific method applied is called Convergent Cross-mapping (CCM), which detects NDC between two targeted variables X and Y from both directions (X & RARR; Y, Y & RARR; X). Important findings are summarized as follows: (1) With CCM, NDCs with similar strengths are found from glaciers retreat, snowmelt, and permafrost thaw to GWS, respectively; (2) Also in the form of NDC, GWS is proven to reversely affect permafrost, but not to glacier and snow; (3) NDCs are also found between GWS and other hydrometeorological variables in TP, including lakes, soil moisture, precipitation, and temperature; (4) Some nontraditional NDCs from glaciers and lakes towards GWS are identified. Overall, using CCM, our new findings about NDC answer the controversial question of whether GWS could in turn affect cryosphere, completing previous conclusions about how GWS interplays with cryosphere in TP, and more importantly, this research would shed light on future causality detection in hydrology.

Understanding how groundwater storage (GWS) responds to climate change is essential for water resources management and future water availability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, the dominant factor controlling long-term GWS changes remains unclear and its responses to climate change are not well understood. Here we combined multi-source datasets including in-situ measurements, satellite observations, global models, and reanalysis products to reveal that GWS increased at 5.59 +/- 1.44 Gt/yr during 2003-2016 while showing spatial heterogeneities with increasing trends in northern TP and glacial regions and declining trends in central and southern TP. The accelerated transformation from solid water (glaciers, snow, and permafrost; -17.72 +/- 1.53 Gt/yr) into liquid water provide more recharge to groundwater, dominating the total GWS increase. This study contributes to a better understanding of the hydrological cycle under climate change and provides key information for projecting water availability under different future scenarios in the TP.