We present an innovative approach to understanding permafrost degradation processes through the application of new environment-based particle image velocimetry (E-PIV) to time-lapse imagery and correlation with synchronous temperature and rainfall measurements. Our new approach to extracting quantitative vector movement from dynamic environmental conditions that can change both the position and the color balance of each image has optimized the trade-off between noise reduction and preserving the authenticity of movement data. Despite the dynamic polar environments and continuous landscape movements, the E-PIV provides the first quantitative real-time associations between environmental drivers and the responses of permafrost degradation mechanism. We analyze four event-based datasets from an island southwest of Tuktoyaktuk, named locally as Imnaqpaaluk or Peninsula Point near Tuktoyaktuk, NWT, Canada, spanning a 5-year period from 2017 to 2022. The 2017 dataset focuses on the interaction during a hot dry summer between slope movement and temperature changes, laying the foundation for subsequent analyses. In 2018, two datasets significantly expand our understanding of typical failure mechanisms in permafrost slopes: one investigates the relationship between slope movement and rainfall, while the other captures an overhang collapse, providing a rare quantitative observation of an acute landscape change event. The 2022 dataset revisits the combination of potential rain and air temperature-related forcing to explore the environment-slope response relationship around an ice wedge, a common feature of ice-rich permafrost coasts. These analyses reveal both a direct but muted association with air temperatures and a detectable delayed slope response to the occurrence of rainfall, potentially reflective of the time taken for the warm rainwater to infiltrate through the active layer and affect the frozen ground. Whilst these findings also indicate that other factors are likely to influence permafrost degradation processes, the associations have significant implications given the projections for a warmer, wetter Arctic. The ability to directly measure permafrost slope responses offers exciting new potential to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of different processes of degradation for the first time, improving the vulnerability components of hazard risk assessments, guiding mitigation efforts, and better constraining future projections of erosion rates and the mobilization of carbon-rich material.

Globally, land subsidence (LS) often adversely impacts infrastructure, humans, and the environment. As climate change intensifies the terrestrial hydrologic cycle and severity of climate extremes, the interplay among extremes (e.g., floods, droughts, wildfires, etc.), LS, and their effects must be better understood since LS can alter the impacts of extreme events, and extreme events can drive LS. Furthermore, several processes causing subsidence (e.g., ice-rich permafrost degradation, oxidation of organic matter) have been shown to also release greenhouse gases, accelerating climate change. Our review aims to synthesize these complex relationships, including human activities contributing to LS, and to identify the causes and rates of subsidence across diverse landscapes. We primarily focus on the era of synthetic aperture radar (SAR), which has significantly contributed to advancements in our understanding of ground deformations around the world. Ultimately, we identify gaps and opportunities to aid LS monitoring, mitigation, and adaptation strategies and guide interdisciplinary efforts to further our process-based understanding of subsidence and associated climate feedbacks. We highlight the need to incorporate the interplay of extreme events, LS, and human activities into models, risk and vulnerability assessments, and management practices to develop improved mitigation and adaptation strategies as the global climate warms. Without consideration of such interplay and/or feedback loops, we may underestimate the enhancement of climate change and acceleration of LS across many regions, leaving communities unprepared for their ramifications. Proactive and interdisciplinary efforts should be leveraged to develop strategies and policies that mitigate or reverse anthropogenic LS and climate change impacts.

Natural hazard processes, as an inherent component of mountain environments, react sensitively to global warming. The main drivers of these changes are alterations in the amount, intensity or type of precipitation, glacier melting, or thawing of permafrost ice. The hazard responses can involve a change in hazard intensity or frequency (increasing or decreasing), a shift in their location or, a shift from one type of hazard to another. As climate change impacts vary in space and time, this variability must be considered when planning measures to protect populations and infrastructure from hazardous processes. To support this, we developed a method for assessing the climate sensitivity of small individual rock releases and larger rockfall processes. The method is based on a fuzzy logic approach and uses highly resolved climate scenario data, allowing application on a regional or even larger scale. The application in a study area of 700 km2 in the central Valais (Switzerland) shows that the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes can vary quite substantially across small spatial scales. Generally, an increase in rockfall frequency and magnitude is simulated under future warming scenarios, especially at higher altitudes. However, at lower elevations and on south-exposed slopes, a decrease in freeze-thaw cycles leads to a decrease in material availability. This knowledge is essential in discussions of how climate change should be considered in hazard and disaster management.

The transition to cleaner cooking fuels currently ongoing in many low- and middle-income countries may have benefits for health, but also climate. We have studied the climate implications of the SE4ALL policy goal in Tanzania of 75 percent access to modern cooking solutions by 2030 in which mainly firewood and charcoal are replaced by LPG and electricity. To see the long-term climate benefit, we have estimated the reduction in CO2equivalent emissions (GWP100) and effect on global temperature until 2100 relative to the baseline for three explorative scenarios with different levels of ambition: baseline growth to nearly complete transition to modern cooking. Due to population growth the energy demand and CO2-eq. emissions increase even in the most ambitious energy transition scenario. We model reduction in global temperature in 2100 relative to the baseline to be between -0.63 and -2.9 milli degrees C. While we confirm the climate benefit of a transition to cleaner cooking fuels in households, the benefit is smaller than previously thought. This is mainly due to a much weaker radiative forcing of black carbon and somewhat stronger radiative forcing for organic carbon, in the climate parameters from IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

This study uses a new dataset on gauge locations and catchments to assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on the hydrology of 221 high-mountain catchments in Central Asia. A steady-state stochastic soil moisture water balance model was employed to project changes in runoff and evaporation for 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979-2011. Baseline climate data were sourced from CHELSA V21 climatology, providing daily temperature and precipitation for each subcatchment. Future projections used bias-corrected outputs from four General Circulation Models under four pathways/scenarios (SSP1 RCP 2.6, SSP2 RCP 4.5, SSP3 RCP 7.0, SSP5 RCP 8.5). Global datasets informed soil parameter distribution, and glacier ablation data were integrated to refine discharge modeling and validated against long-term catchment discharge data. The atmospheric models predict an increase in median precipitation between 5.5% to 10.1% and a rise in median temperatures by 1.9 degrees C to 5.6 degrees C by the end of the 21st century, depending on the scenario and relative to the baseline. Hydrological model projections for this period indicate increases in actual evaporation between 7.3% to 17.4% and changes in discharge between + 1.1% to -2.7% for the SSP1 RCP 2.6 and SSP5 RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the most extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), discharge increases of 3.8% and 5.0% are anticipated during the first and second future periods, followed by a decrease of -2.7% in the third period. Significant glacier wastage is expected in lower-lying runoff zones, with overall discharge reductions in parts of the Tien Shan, including the Naryn catchment. Conversely, high-elevation areas in the Gissar-Alay and Pamir mountains are projected to experience discharge increases, driven by enhanced glacier ablation and delayed peak water, among other things. Shifts in precipitation patterns suggest more extreme but less frequent events, potentially altering the hydroclimate risk landscape in the region. Our findings highlight varied hydrological responses to climate change throughout high-mountain Central Asia. These insights inform strategies for effective and sustainable water management at the national and transboundary levels and help guide local stakeholders.

Significant increase in wintertime air temperature, especially the reduced cold extremes under climate change, might be beneficial to the winter survival of perennial crops. However, climate warming could result in less snowfall, reduced snow cover, as well as changes in climate conditions for fall hardening and winter thaws. How these changes might impact the risks of winter damages to overwintering crops, such as perennial forage crops requires a comprehensive assessment for proactively adapting to climate change in the agricultural sector, especially the beef and dairy industries. Based on the most up-to-date climate projections from a set of global climate models, we used a snow model and a suite of agroclimatic indices for perennial forage crops to assess potential changes in the risks of winter injury to perennial forage crops across Canada in the near-term (2030s), the mid-term (2050s), and the distant future (2070s). Our results show that the risk of exposure to extremely low temperatures (daily T-min < -15 degrees C) without snow protection is projected to decrease across Canada with improved conditions for fall hardening. However, winter thaws and rainfall are projected to increase, and this would increase the risk of winter injury due to loss of hardiness together with potential soil heaving and ice encasement.

In this study, in situ observations were conducted for six criteria air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O-3) at 23 sites in western China for 1 year. Subsequently, the detailed Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) results for the pollutants were determined. The WRF-Chem model provided a clear perspective on the spatiotemporal distribution of air pollutants. High pollutant concentrations were mainly observed over highly populated mega-city regions, such as Sichuan and Guanzhong basins, whereas low concentration levels were observed over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The TP also showed an increased concentration of O-3. Seasonally, all six pollutants except O-3 exhibited high concentration values during winter and low values during summer. O-3 concentrations exhibited an opposite seasonal variation in low-altitude regions. Unlike other pollutants that exhibited gradually decreasing concentrations with an increase in altitude, O-3 concentrations revealed an increasing trend. Furthermore, NO2 concentrations gradually increased in the upper atmosphere possibly due to lighting and stratospheric transmission. Atmospheric pollution is closely related to emissions and meteorological variations in western China. Meteorological conditions in the summer are conducive to pollutant dispersion and wet scavenging; however, unfavourable weather conditions (high pressure as well as a low planetary boundary layer height and precipitation level) in the winter can further worsen air pollution. Atmospheric pollutants from various emission sectors generally exhibited varying monthly profiles. In six typical cities, pollutants were positively correlated with multiple emission sources except for industrial emissions. Further sensitivity simulations indicated that eliminating residential emissions resulted in the largest decrease (up to 70%) in PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations. The most significant reductions in the concentrations of SO2 and NO2 were achieved by eliminating industrial and transportation emissions, respectively. The outcomes of this study could be helpful for future studies on pollution formation mechanisms as well as environmental and health risk assessments in western China. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction: More than 16% of the total electricity used worldwide is met by hydropower, having local to regional environmental consequences. With positive indicators that energy is becoming more broadly available and sustainable, the world is moving closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). Pakistan became the first nation to include the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in its national development strategy.Methodology: The current study sought to investigate the structural limits of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) guidelines for hydropower development in Pakistan. The study included the document review of the EIA reports about hydropower projects in Pakistan, scientific questionnaires from decision-makers, and public consultation.Results and Discussion: The document evaluates that an adequate mechanism is available, and donors like the Asian Development Bank and World Bank observe the implementation process of EIA in Pakistan. However, a comprehensive analysis of the EIA system found several things that could be improved, not only in the institutional framework but also in actual implementation and practices. More than 20% of respondent decision-makers disagreed with the compliance of the current Institutional Framework with EIA guidelines, and 25% think that the existing guidelines followed in Pakistan are not aligned with international standards and practices for Hydropower in actual practice. EIA has a limited impact on decision-making due to insufficient technical and financial resources.Recommendations: There should be a think tank with experts who can meet the needs of present and future epochs. The public should be communicated with and educated about EIA. For better efficiency, the officers and decision-makers should be trained internationally, i.e., the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).

The navigability of Arctic maritime passages has improved with the rapid retreat of sea ice in recent decades, and it is projected that the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will support further increases in shipping in the future. However, the opening of the NSR may bring potential environmental and climate risks to the Arctic and the rest of the world. This investigation assessed shipping emissions along the NSR and the climate impacts under global warming of 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C to support coordinated international decision-making. The results show that the magnitude of annual energy consumption of ships along the NSR is 109 kWh under global warming of 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C. The environmental impacts of the shipping decrease with fuel transition to clean, carbon-neutral fuel sources. Specifically, the maximum emission is CO2 (106 t), followed by NOX (104-5 t), CO (103-4 t), SOX (103 t), CH4 (102-3 t), organic carbon (102-3 t), N2O (101-2 t), and black carbon (BC, 101-2 t), in which CO2 and BC have great difference under high and low loads. Total emission exacerbates Arctic and global warming, and it is more significant in the Arctic in the next twenty years and across the rest of the world in the next one hundred years. The greatest climate impact factor is CO2, followed by NOX and BC which are more important in global and Arctic warming, respectively.

Changing climatic conditions in High Mountain Asia (HMA), especially regional warming and changing precipitation patterns, have led to notable effects on mountain permafrost. Comprehensive knowledge of mountain permafrost in HMA is mostly limited to the mountains of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with a strong cluster of research activity related to critical infrastructure providing a basis for related climate adaptation measures. Insights related to the extent and changing characteristics of permafrost in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), are much more limited. This study provides the first comprehensive review of peer-reviewed journal articles, focused on hydrological, ecological, and geomorphic impacts associated with thawing permafrost in HMA, as well as those examining adaptations to changes in mountain permafrost. Studies reveal a clear warming trend across the region, likely resulting in increased landslide activity, effects on streamflow, soil saturation and subsequent vegetation change. Adaptation strategies have been documented only around infrastructure megaprojects as well as animal herding in China. While available research provides important insight that can inform planning in the region, we also identify a need for further research in the areas of hazards related to changing permafrost as well as its effect on ecosystems and subsequently livelihoods. We suggest that future planning of infrastructure in HMA can rely on extrapolation of already existing knowledge within the region to reduce risks associated with warming permafrost. We highlight key research gaps as well as specific areas where insights are limited. These are areas where additional support from governments and funders is urgently needed to enhance regional collaboration to sufficiently understand and effectively respond to permafrost change in the HKH region.