Environmental changes, such as climate warming and higher herbivory pressure, are altering the carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems; yet, how these drivers modify the carbon balance among different habitats remains uncertain. This hampers our ability to predict changes in the carbon sink strength of tundra ecosystems. We investigated how spring goose grubbing and summer warming-two key environmental-change drivers in the Arctic-alter CO2 fluxes in three tundra habitats varying in soil moisture and plant-community composition. In a full-factorial experiment in high-Arctic Svalbard, we simulated grubbing and warming over two years and determined summer net ecosystem exchange (NEE) alongside its components: gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). After two years, we found net CO2 uptake to be suppressed by both drivers depending on habitat. CO2 uptake was reduced by warming in mesic habitats, by warming and grubbing in moist habitats, and by grubbing in wet habitats. In mesic habitats, warming stimulated ER (+75%) more than GEP (+30%), leading to a 7.5-fold increase in their CO2 source strength. In moist habitats, grubbing decreased GEP and ER by similar to 55%, while warming increased them by similar to 35%, with no changes in summer-long NEE. Nevertheless, grubbing offset peak summer CO2 uptake and warming led to a twofold increase in late summer CO2 source strength. In wet habitats, grubbing reduced GEP (-40%) more than ER (-30%), weakening their CO2 sink strength by 70%. One-year CO2-flux responses were similar to two-year responses, and the effect of simulated grubbing was consistent with that of natural grubbing. CO2-flux rates were positively related to aboveground net primary productivity and temperature. Net ecosystem CO2 uptake started occurring above similar to 70% soil moisture content, primarily due to a decline in ER. Herein, we reveal that key environmental-change drivers-goose grubbing by decreasing GEP more than ER and warming by enhancing ER more than GEP-consistently suppress net tundra CO2 uptake, although their relative strength differs among habitats. By identifying how and where grubbing and higher temperatures alter CO2 fluxes across the heterogeneous Arctic landscape, our results have implications for predicting the tundra carbon balance under increasing numbers of geese in a warmer Arctic.

Arctic warming and changing precipitation patterns are altering soil nutrient availability and other processes that control the greenhouse gas balance of high-latitude ecosystems. Changes to these biogeochemical processes will ultimately determine whether the Arctic will enhance or dampen future climate change. At the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, a full-factorial International Tundra Experiment site was established in 2008, allowing for the investigation of ten years of experimental warming and increased snow depth on nutrient availability and trace gas exchange in a mesic heath tundra across two growing seasons (2017 and 2018). Plots with open-top chambers (OTCs) had drier soils (p < .1) that released 1.5 times more carbon dioxide (p < .05), and this effect was enhanced in the drier growing season. Increased snow depth delayed the onset of thaw and active layer development (p < .1) and corresponded with greater nitrous oxide release (p < .05). Our results suggest that decreases to soil moisture will lead to an increase in nitrate availability, soil respiration, and nitrous oxide fluxes. Ultimately, these effects may be moderated by the magnitude of future shifts and interactions between climate variability and ecological responses to permafrost thaw.