Rockfalls are one of the most common instability processes in high mountains. They represent a relevant issue, both for the risks they represent for (infra) structures and frequentation, and for their potential role as terrestrial indicators of climate change. This study aims to contribute to the growing topic of the relationship between climate change and slope instability at the basin scale. The selected study area is the Bessanese glacial basin (Western Italian Alps) which, since 2016, has been specifically equipped, monitored and investigated for this purpose. In order to provide a broader context for the interpretation of the recent rockfall events and associated climate conditions, a cross-temporal and integrated approach has been adopted. For this purpose, geomorphological investigations (last 100 years), local climate (last 30 years) and near-surface rock/air temperatures analyses, have been carried out. First research outcomes show that rockfalls occurred in two different geomorphological positions: on rock slopes in permafrost condition, facing from NW to NE and/or along the glacier margins, on rock slopes uncovered by the ice in the last decades. Seasonal thaw of the active layer and/or glacier debutressing can be deemed responsible for slope failure preparation. With regard to timing, almost all dated rock falls occurred in summer. For the July events, initiation may have been caused by a combination of rapid snow melt and enhanced seasonal thaw of the active layer due to anomalous high temperatures, and rainfall. August events are, instead, associated with a significant positive temperature anomaly on the quarterly scale, and they can be ascribed to the rapid and/or in depth thaw of the permafrost active layer. According to our findings, we can expect that in the Bessanese glacierized basin, as in similar high mountain areas, climate change will cause an increase of slope instability in the future. To fasten knowledge deepening, we highlight the need for a growth of a network of high elevation experimental sites at the basin scale, and the definition of shared methodological and measurement standards, that would allow a more rapid and effective comparison of data.

We developed a simple model to estimate ice ablation under a debris cover. The ablation process is modelled using energy and mass conservation equations for debris and ice and heat conduction, driven by input of either i) debris surface temperature or ii) radiation fluxes, and solved through a finite difference scheme computing the conductive heat flux within the supra-glacial debris layer. For model calibration, input and validation, we used approximately bi-weekly surveys of ice ablation rate, debris cover temperature, air temperature and solar incoming and upwelling radiation during for Summer 2007. We calibrated the model for debris thermal conductivity using a subset of ablation data and then we validated using another subset. Comparisons between calculated and measured values showed a good agreement (RMSE = 0.04 m w.e., r = 0.79), thus suggesting a good performance of the model in predicting ice ablation. Thermal conductivity was found to be the most critical parameter in the proposed model, and it was estimated by debris temperature and thickness, with value changing along the investigated ablation season. The proposed model may be used to quantify buried ice ablation given a reasonable assessment of thermal conductivity.

The occurrence of permafrost in the Italian Alps is an important predisposing factor for landslides. Debris flows are frequent on slopes overlying permafrost and are likely the result of active-layer supersaturation. The role of permafrost degradation in triggering landslides from hard rock slopes as a response to climatic warming has been pointed out only recently. Geotechnical investigations demonstrate that ice-filled fractured rock slopes at temperatures between -2 degrees and 0 degrees C are less stable than when in an unfrozen state. The Val Pola rockslide, whose accumulation mass included ice-cemented blocks, could be explained therefore as the result of strength reduction along pre-existing potential sliding surfaces, filled with warming ground-ice.