Due to the time-dependent effect of rockfill dams, the conventional time-invariant finite element method (FEM) can hardly meet practical engineering requirements. This paper proposes an updating Bayesian FEM method for accurate long-term deformation analysis. A combined FEM model is introduced accounting for both instantaneous and creep behaviors. The FEM model is then updated using a Bayesian algorithm, unscented Kalman filter (UKF). The UKF calibrates the prior FEM predictions by incorporating real-time measurement data, thus iteratively reducing discrepancies between model predictions and actual observations. To further enhance the algorithm accuracy, a power-law-based fading memory factor is proposed to mitigate measurement noise in standard UKF. For parameter identification, a slice approach of the high-dimensional covariance confidence ellipsoid is developed. The methodology is validated in Qingyuan rockfill dam, in Guangdong province, China. Results show that the updated FEM is more consistent with the actual monitoring data. The fading memory improves standard UKF performance with a lower relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE). Additionally, the slice method reveals that a specific three-parameter configuration behaves better than the others. The proposed approach can also be extended to other fields including slope and tunneling.

To enhance the path-tracking accuracy of unmanned articulated road roller (UARR) operating on low-adhesion, slippery surfaces, this paper proposes a hierarchical cascaded control (HCC) architecture integrated with real-time ground adhesion coefficient estimation. Addressing the complex nonlinear dynamics between the two rigid bodies of the vehicle and its interaction with the ground, an upper-layer nonlinear model predictive controller (NMPC) is designed. This layer, based on a 4-degree-of-freedom (4-DOF) dynamic model, calculates the required steering torque using position and heading errors. The lower layer employs a second-order sliding mode controller (SOSMC) to precisely track the steering torque and output the corresponding steering wheel angle. To accommodate the anisotropic and time-varying nature of slippery surfaces, a strong-tracking unscented Kalman filter (ST-UKF) observer is introduced for ground adhesion coefficient estimation. By dynamically adjusting the covariance matrix, the observer reduces reliance on historical data while increasing the weight of new data, significantly improving real-time estimation accuracy. The estimated adhesion coefficient is fed back to the upper-layer NMPC, enhancing the control system's adaptability and robustness under slippery conditions. The HCC is validated through simulation and real-vehicle experiments and compared with LQR and PID controllers. The results demonstrate that HCC achieves the fastest response time and smallest steady-state error on both dry and slippery gravel soil surfaces. Under slippery conditions, while control performance decreases compared to dry surfaces, incorporating ground adhesion coefficient observation reduces steady-state error by 20.62%.

Evaluating the bearing capacity of bridge substructures is very important for bridge maintenance and management. However, existing studies that rely on static load tests (SLTs) or transient response methods (TRMs) have limitations that are difficult to apply to operational bridges or require knowledge of the relationship between static stiffness and dynamic stiffness. This paper proposed a novel Bayesian system identification framework for rapid assessment of the vertical condition of bridge substructures. In the first step, a simplified analytical model was formulated to interpret the vertical dynamics of the soil-foundation-bridge pier system with lumped parameters. A Bayesian joint-input-parameter-state procedure was introduced to simultaneously identify unknown input and structural parameters, including stiffness and damping coefficients. After that, the proposed framework was numerically demonstrated, and the influence of extensive random initial errors was methodically examined. Finally, a full-scale in situ test involving TRM and SLT was conducted to further test the engineering compatibility of the methodology. The achieved results indicated that the simultaneous identification framework is effective and robust for estimating the vertical stiffness of piers and foundations, structural states, and unknown excitation using output-only measurements. The proposed framework can be effectively employed to assess the vertical condition of bridge substructures during construction or operation, particularly for rapid damage assessment of bridge structures after natural disasters.

Multivariate data assimilation (DA), a novel way to couple big data with land surface models, was extensively employed in forecasting-reanalyzing systems (FRSs), for example, ECMWF and GLDAS. Meanwhile, most (distributed) hydrological models, like soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), have not been equipped with straightforward ways to link to DA algorithms. Therefore, it is one of the main barriers to utilizing such hydrological models in FRSs. This paper deals with multivariate DA into SWAT (DA-SWAT), which is complicated since the original model does not provide full access to the models' initial conditions (ICs) at the hydrologic response unit (HRU) scale. The preceding DA-SWAT works commonly used an integrated approach in which the DA and SWAT codes were implemented in the same programming environment. We discuss how this approach complicates and prevents the application of DA-SWAT in multivariate, multimodel, and multisensor systems. Accordingly, we proposed a new approach for DA-SWAT by which SWAT can be perfectly linked with any DA algorithm of interest coded in any desired programming environment. Our framework utilizes input/output text files to access ICs and to link DA with SWAT. Moreover, we designed some univariate and multivariate scenarios for assimilating in situ streamflow measurement and MODIS's snow cover fraction (SCF) data, which has not yet been focused on in the SWAT calibration context. Results show that compared to the univariate assimilation of streamflow (SCF), the multivariate assimilation mitigates the equifinality problem and more accurately estimates SCF (streamflow) by improving NS and PBIAS measures with the differences of 0.4 (0.86), 12% (64%), respectively.

Black carbon (BC) is an important aerosol constituent in the atmosphere and climate forcer. A good understanding of the radiative forcing of BC and associated climate feedback and response is critical to minimize the uncertainty in predicting current and future climate influenced by anthropogenic aerosols. One reason for this uncertainty is that current emission inventories of BC are mostly obtained from the so-called bottom-up approach, an approach that derives emissions based on categorized emitting sources and emission factors used to convert burning mass to emissions. In this work, we provide a first global-scale top-down estimation of global BC emissions, as well as an estimated error range, by using a Kalman Filter. This method uses data of both column aerosol absorption optical depth and surface concentrations from global and regional networks to constrain our fully coupled climate-aerosol-urban model and thus to derive an optimized estimate of BC emissions as 17.85.6 Tg/yr, a factor of more than 2 higher than commonly used global BC emissions data sets. We further perform 22 additional optimization simulations that incorporate the known uncertain ranges of various important physical, model, and measurement parameters and still yield an optimized value within the above given range, from a low of 14.6 Tg/yr to a high of 22.2 Tg/yr. Furthermore, we show that the emissions difference between our optimized and a priori estimation is not uniform, with East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe underestimated, while North America is overestimated in the a priori inventory.