In the summer of 2022, a record-breaking heatwave and drought event occurred in the Yangtze River (YR) Basin of China, causing great damage to the society and ecosystem. However, the role of land-atmosphere (LA) interactions in driving and reinforcing this event has not been fully studied. In this study, using air temperature, soil moisture (SM), surface sensible heat fluxes, surface latent heat fluxes and radiation fluxes data from ERA5, we analyze the process of this event and reveal the contribution of the LA feedbacks. The results indicate that during the 2022 YR Basin heatwave and drought event, the regional average maximum air temperature and SM reached unprecedented levels of 2.7 standard deviations (SDs) and -3.5 SDs, respectively, compared to the climatology from 1980 to 2021. In August 2022, SM rapidly declined, pushing the region into a rare dry state. The dry soil increased the sensitivity of daily maximum air temperature to SM, intensifying the occurrence of heatwaves in the area. Simultaneously, increased downward solar radiation reached surface and most of that converted to sensible heat fluxes due to low soil moisture limitations leading to elevated air temperatures. While similar events have been reported multiple times in regions like Europe and western North America, their occurrence in the moist region of the YR Basin of China is exceptionally rare, which suggests an increasing likelihood of such extreme events in this region. Land-atmosphere interactions play an increasingly crucial role in exacerbating extreme conditions, and therefore, more studies such as this are needed for improving predictability of extreme events on a sub-seasonal time scale.
Skill in predicting where damaging convective storms will occur is limited, particularly in the tropics. In principle, near-surface soil moisture (SM) patterns from previous storms provide an important source of skill at the mesoscale, yet these structures are often short-lived (hours to days), due to both soil drying processes and the impact of new storms. Here, we use satellite observations over the Sahel to examine how the strong, locally negative, SM-precipitation feedback there impacts rainfall patterns over subsequent days. The memory of an initial storm pattern decays rapidly over the first 3-4 days, but a weak signature is still detected in surface observations 10-20 days later. The wet soil suppresses rainfall over the storm track for the first 2-8 days, depending on aridity regime. Whilst the negative SM feedback initially enhances mesoscale rainfall predictability, the transient nature of SM likely limits forecast skill on sub-seasonal time scales. Early warning of severe weather is particularly important in Africa, where resilience to storm hazards such as flash flooding is weak. Given large-scale atmospheric conditions favorable for convective activity, understanding where storms will occur is challenging for conventional weather prediction models. In semi-arid regions such as the Sahel, the spatial distribution of SM provides additional predictability of convective rain, via its impact on heating and moistening of the atmosphere. Given that convection is favored over drier soils and that storms create new SM patterns every few days during the wet season, the extent to which knowledge of today's SM aids rainfall prediction in future days is unclear. Here we use 17 years of satellite observations to document how surface properties evolve over 20 days after a storm, and how the surface influences subsequent rainfall patterns. We find that even in regions of West Africa where storms are frequent, the suppression of rain over recently-wetted soils is evident out to 2 days. In climatologically drier regions, this predictability extends out to 8 days. Overall, the feedback between SM and rainfall enhances rainfall predictability in the short-term (days), but effectively degrades the skill of longer-term (weeks) forecasts. Satellite observations over the Sahel reveal how the land surface evolves in the 20 days after a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) After an MCS, rainfall is suppressed over wet soils for 2 days in humid regions and up to 8 days in drier areas Initially soil moisture enhances rainfall predictability, but the strong land feedback degrades skill at longer lead times
Compound hot-dry events (CHDEs) are among the deadliest climate hazards and are occurring with increasing frequency under global warming. The Yangtze River Basin in China experienced a record-breaking CHDE in the summer of 2022, causing severe damage to human societies and ecosystems. Recent studies have emphasized the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies in driving this event. However, the contribution of land-atmosphere feedback to the development of this event remains unclear. Here, we investigated the impacts of soil moisture-temperature coupling on the development of this concurrent heatwave and drought. We showed that large amounts of surface net radiation were partitioned to sensible heat instead of latent heat as the soil moisture-temperature coupling pattern shifted from energy-limited to water-limited under low soil moisture conditions, forming positive land-atmosphere feedback and leading to unprecedented hot extremes in August. The spatial heterogeneity of hot extremes was also largely modulated by the land-atmosphere coupling strength. Furthermore, enhanced land-atmosphere feedback has played an important role in intensifying CHDEs in this traditional humid region. This study improves the understanding of the development of CHDEs from three aspects, including timing, intensity, and spatial distribution, and enables more effective early warning of CHDEs.