The thermal coupling between the atmosphere and the subsurface on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) governs permafrost stability, surface energy balance, and ecosystem processes, yet its spatiotemporal dynamics under accelerated warming are poorly understood. This study quantifies soil-atmosphere thermal coupling ((3) at the critical 0.1 m root-zone depth using in-situ data from 99 sites (1980-2020) and a machine learning framework. Results show significantly weaker coupling in permafrost (PF) zones (mean (3 = 0.42) than in seasonal frost (SF) zones (mean (3 = 0.50), confirming the powerful thermal buffering of permafrost. Critically, we find a widespread trend of weakening coupling (decreasing (3) at 66.7 % of sites, a phenomenon most pronounced in SF zones. Our driver analysis reveals that the spatial patterns of (3 are primarily controlled by surface insulation from summer rainfall and soil moisture. The temporal trends, however, are driven by a complex and counter-intuitive interplay. Paradoxically, rapid atmospheric warming is the strongest driver of a strengthening of coupling, likely due to the loss of insulative snow cover, while trends toward wetter conditions drive a weakening of coupling by enhancing surface insulation. Spatially explicit maps derived from our models pinpoint hotspots of accelerated decoupling in the eastern and southern QTP, while also identifying high-elevation PF regions where coupling is strengthening, signaling a loss of protective insulation and increased vulnerability to degradation. These findings highlight a dynamic and non-uniform response of land-atmosphere interactions to climate change, with profound implications for the QTP's cryosphere, hydrology, and ecosystems.

There is a growing body of empirical evidence documenting the expansion of shrub vegetation in the circumpolar Arctic in response to climate change. Here, we conduct a series of idealized experiments with the Community Climate System Model to analyze the potential impact on boreal climate of a large-scale tundra-to-shrub conversion. The model responds to an increase in shrub abundance with substantial atmospheric heating arising from two seasonal land-atmosphere feedbacks: a decrease in surface albedo and an evapotranspiration-induced increase in atmospheric moisture content. We demonstrate that the strength and timing of these feedbacks are sensitive to shrub height and the time at which branches and leaves protrude above the snow. Taller and aerodynamically rougher shrubs lower the albedo earlier in the spring and transpire more efficiently than shorter shrubs. These mechanisms increase, in turn, the strength of the indirect sea-ice albedo and ocean evaporation feedbacks contributing to additional regional warming. Finally, we find that an invasion of tall shrubs tends to systematically warm the soil, deepen the active layer, and destabilize the permafrost (with increased formation of taliks under a future scenario) more substantially than an invasion of short shrubs.

Uncertainties in the climate response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quantified in a perturbed land surface parameter experiment. The ensemble of 108 members is constructed by systematically perturbing five poorly constrained land surface parameters of global climate model individually and in all possible combinations. The land surface parameters induce small uncertainties at global scale, substantial uncertainties at regional and seasonal scale and very large uncertainties in the tails of the distribution, the climate extremes. Climate sensitivity varies across the ensemble mainly due to the perturbation of the snow albedo parameterization, which controls the snow albedo feedback strength. The uncertainty range in the global response is small relative to perturbed physics experiments focusing on atmospheric parameters. However, land surface parameters are revealed to control the response not only of the mean but also of the variability of temperature. Major uncertainties are identified in the response of climate extremes to a doubling of CO2. During winter the response both of temperature mean and daily variability relates to fractional snow cover. Cold extremes over high latitudes warm disproportionately in ensemble members with strong snow albedo feedback and large snow cover reduction. Reduced snow cover leads to more winter warming and stronger variability decrease. As a result uncertainties in mean and variability response line up, with some members showing weak and others very strong warming of the cold tail of the distribution, depending on the snow albedo parametrization. The uncertainty across the ensemble regionally exceeds the CMIP3 multi-model range. Regarding summer hot extremes, the uncertainties are larger than for mean summer warming but smaller than in multi-model experiments. The summer precipitation response to a doubling of CO2 is not robust over many regions. Land surface parameter perturbations and natural variability alter the sign of the response even over subtropical regions.

A significant difference in net ecosystem carbon balance of wet sedge ecosystems in the Barrow, Alaska region was observed between CO2 flux measurements obtained during the International Biological Program in 1971 and measurements made during the 1991-1992 growing seasons. Currently, high-center polygons are net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere of approximate to 14 gC . m(-2). yr(-1), while low-center polygons are losing approximate to 3.6 gC . m(-2). yr(-1), and ice wedge habitats are accumulating 4.0 gC . m(-2). yr(-1). On average, moist meadow habitats characteristic of the IBP-II site are currently sources of approximate to 1.3 gC . m(-2). yr(-1) to the atmosphere compared to the reported accumulation of approximate to 25 gC . m(-2). yr(-1) determined in 1971. This difference in ecosystem function over the last two decades may be due to the recently reported increase in surface temperatures resulting in decreases in the soil moisture status. These results point to the importance of long-term research sites and databases for determining the potential effects of climate change on ecosystem function.