Permafrost is a potential mercury (Hg) pool released by thawing, which can raise the risk of Hg pollution under global warming. Tree rings are useful archives of environment-specific Hg exposure over long periods. We determined Hg concentrations in tree rings of two dominant tree species (Larix gmelinii Rupr. and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) at permafrost sites in northeastern China. The biweighted mean Hg concentrations ranged from 0.36 to 3.96 ng g(-1) from 1840 to 2014. The tree-ring width had no significant influence on the Hg concentration. Larch Hg increased slightly before the 1970s and peaked in the 1990s. However, the pine Hg concentration increased continuously until the 1930s, decreased rapidly until the 1970s, then rose to a peak in the late 1980s. The change of Hg concentrations in larch and pine revealed a time offset of 4 to 5 years, which implied possibly high mobility of Hg in pine tree rings. Higher Hg concentrations from 1920 to 1960 and subsequent decreases in isolated permafrost forests revealed the local geographical Hg cycling history. Lower Hg concentrations and faster increases in larch suggest the role of additional winter Hg loading for the evergreen pine and species-specific differences in root absorption in response to melting permafrost. Our results highlight possible geographical impacts on tree-ring Hg records, improve understanding of Hg cycles in permafrost forest, and suggest a need to sample additional species in a range of permafrost environments.

Throughout the larch range, warming leads to frequent fires and an increase in burned areas. We test the hypothesis that fires are an essential natural factor that reset larch regeneration and support the existence of larch forests. The study area included Larix sibirica and L. gmelinii ranges within the permafrost zone. We used satellite-derived and field data, dendrochronology, and climate variables analysis. We found that warming led to an increase in fire frequency and intensity, mean, and extreme (>10,000 ha) burned areas. The burned area is increasing in the northward direction, while fire frequency is decreasing. The fire rate exponentially increases with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air temperature and air drought. We found a contrasting effect of wildfire on regeneration within continuous permafrost and within the southern lowland boundary of the larch range. In the first case, burnt areas regenerated via abounded larch seedlings (up to 500,000+ per ha), whereas the south burns regenerated mostly via broadleaf species or turned into grass communities. After the fire, vegetation GPP was restored to pre-fire levels within 3-15 years, which may indicate that larch forests continue to serve as carbon stock. At the southern edge of the larch range, an amplified fire rate led to the transformation of larch forests into grass and shrub communities. We suggested that the thawing of continuous permafrost would lead to shrinking larch-dominance in the south. Data obtained indicated that recurrent fires are a prerequisite for larch forests' successful regeneration and resilience within continuous permafrost. It is therefore not necessary to suppress all fires within the zone of larch dominance. Instead, we must focus fire suppression on areas of high natural, social, and economic importance, permitting fires to burn in vast, larch-dominant permafrost landscapes.

The dendroecology of larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) in the world's northernmost forest provided insight into the complex relationship of tree growth, forest stand establishment, and changing eco-climatic factors. The Ary-Mas forest in the northern Siberia (72 & DEG; + NL) is an ecological island, surrounded by tundra. We hypothesized that the environmental constraints that limit larch growth in this harsh habitat include soil moisture and winter winds as well as low air temperature. We constructed and analyzed the larch growth index (GI) chronology from the eighteenth century until 2019. We found that the larch GI depended on the air temperature, soil moisture anomalies, and winter wind speed, and that dependence was significantly different before and after the 2000s. Larch GI responded to the onset of climatic warming in the 1970s by a minor GI increase followed by a GI decrease until the end of 1990. Increased air temperature early in the growing season favored increased GI, whereas elevated winter wind speed negatively influenced larch growth. After warming in the 2000s, the length of the growing season increased by 15 days, and larch GI was sensitive to air temperature both early and late in the growing season. The adverse influence of winter winds has gradually decreased since the 1970s, becoming a minor factor in the 2000s. Soil moisture in wet, cold soils negatively influenced larch growth. Meanwhile, decreased soil moisture in the northern lowlands favored increased larch growth. We found that larch growth increases were strongly correlated with GPP and NPP (gross and net primary productivity) within the Ary-Mas site and for the central Siberian Arctic. We infer that this Arctic region continues to be a carbon sink.

Boreal forests cover over half of the global permafrost area and protect underlying permafrost. Boreal forest development, therefore, has an impact on permafrost evolution, especially under a warming climate. Forest disturbances and changing climate conditions cause vegetation shifts and potentially destabilize the carbon stored within the vegetation and permafrost. Disturbed permafrost-forest ecosystems can develop into a dry or swampy bush- or grasslands, shift toward broadleaf- or evergreen needleleaf-dominated forests, or recover to the pre-disturbance state. An increase in the number and intensity of fires, as well as intensified logging activities, could lead to a partial or complete ecosystem and permafrost degradation. We study the impact of forest disturbances (logging, surface, and canopy fires) on the thermal and hydrological permafrost conditions and ecosystem resilience. We use a dynamic multilayer canopy-permafrost model to simulate different scenarios at a study site in eastern Siberia. We implement expected mortality, defoliation, and ground surface changes and analyze the interplay between forest recovery and permafrost. We find that forest loss induces soil drying of up to 44%, leading to lower active layer thicknesses and abrupt or steady decline of a larch forest, depending on disturbance intensity. Only after surface fires, the most common disturbances, inducing low mortality rates, forests can recover and overpass pre-disturbance leaf area index values. We find that the trajectory of larch forests after surface fires is dependent on the precipitation conditions in the years after the disturbance. Dryer years can drastically change the direction of the larch forest development within the studied period.

Boreal peatlands are frequently underlain by permafrost, which is thawing rapidly. A common ecological response to thaw is the conversion of raised forested plateaus to treeless wetlands, but unexplained spatial variation in responses, combined with a lack of stand-level data, make it difficult to predict future trajectories of boreal forest composition and structure. We sought to characterize patterns and identify drivers of forest structure, composition, mortality and recruitment in a boreal peatland experiencing permafrost thaw. To do this, we established a large (10 ha) permanent forest plot (completed in 2014), located in the Northwest Territories, Canada, that includes 40,584 mapped and measured trees. In 2018, we conducted a comprehensive mortality and recruitment recensus. We also measured frost table depth, soil moisture, soil humification and organic layer thickness within the plot between 2012 and 2018, and used habitat association tests to link these variables to forest characteristics and dynamics. Forest composition and structure varied markedly throughout the plot and were strongly governed by patterns in permafrost presence and organic layer thickness. Overall, there was a net loss of trees from the plot at a rate of 0.7% year(-1). Mortality of black spruce, the dominant tree species, was more than double that of recruitment and was strongly associated with permafrost thaw. In contrast, recruitment of larch was over four times greater than mortality, and occurred primarily in low-lying, permafrost-free wetlands with mineral soil near the surface. Synthesis. The trends in tree demography and underlying drivers suggest that spruce-dominated permafrost plateaus will be converted into larch-dominated wetlands as permafrost thaw progresses in boreal peatlands, particularly in areas where mineral soil is near the surface. In the longer term, thaw could increase the hydrologic connectivity of the landscape, resulting in widespread drainage and re-vegetation by spruce, but we did not find evidence that this is occurring yet. Given the increasing rates of permafrost thaw, and positive feedbacks between thaw and forest change, we predict that larch abundance will continue to increase in boreal peatlands over the coming decades, leading to shifts in ecosystem function, wildlife habitat, albedo and snow dynamics.

Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales.

Russian boreal forests represent the largest forested region on Earth and comprise one-fifth of the world's forest cover. The two most common genera in Siberia are Larix and Pinus, which together cover more than 80% of the region's forested area. One observable ongoing effect of climate warming is that natural populations of Siberian larch are gradually being replaced by Scots pine. The present work focuses on comparing effects of environmental variables on sap flow density in two even-aged stands of Larix sibirica and Pinus sylvestris. While the two study stands were identical in age (49 years) with similar basal areas and leaf area index, they exhibited very different transpiration rates and response mechanisms to environmental signals. Stand water use was higher for larch than it was for pine, even though transpiration for deciduous larch trees occurred over shorter time periods. The cumulative annual transpiration of the larch stand was 284 +/- 4 mm measured over two consecutive growing seasons (2015-2016), while for pine this was 20% lower. Seasonal transpiration accounted for 50% and 40% of the reference evapotranspiration and 91% and 67% of growing season precipitation for larch and pine, respectively. Water stored in soil provided an important source of water for transpiration, observed as roughly 100 mm, which was then replenished from snowmelt the following spring. The greatest difference between two species related to how well they controlled transpiration, notably in the context of high vapor pressure deficit; under these conditions, pine maintained greater control over transpiration than larch. For all soil moisture levels measured, larch transpired more water than pine. Importantly, our results point to potential future effects of global warming, most notably an increasing decline of larch forests, changes in the ratio between latent and sensitive heat fluxes, and significant modifications in ecosystem water availability.

Larch-dominant communities are the most extensive high-latitude forests in Eurasia and are experiencing the strongest impacts from warming temperatures. We analyzed larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth index (GI) response to climate change. The studied larch-dominant communities are located within the permafrost zone of Northern Siberia at the northern tree limit (ca. N 67A degrees 38', E 99A degrees 07'). Methods included dendrochronology, analysis of climate variables, root zone moisture content, and satellite-derived gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity. It was found that larch response to warming included a period of increased annual growth increment (GI) (from the 1970s to ca. 1995) with a follow on GI decline. Increase in GI correlated with summer air temperature, whereas an observed decrease in GI was caused by water stress (vapor pressure deficit and drought increase). Water stress impact on larch growth in permafrost was not observed before the onset of warming (ca. 1970). Water limitation was also indicated by GI dependence on soil moisture stored during the previous year. Water stress was especially pronounced for stands growing on rocky soils with low water-holding capacity. GPP of larch communities showed an increasing trend, whereas NPP stagnated. A similar pattern of GI response to climate warming has also been observed for Larix sibirica Ledeb, Pinus sibirica Du Tour, and Abies sibirica Ledeb in the forests of southern Siberia. Thus, warming in northern Siberia permafrost zone resulted in an initial increase in larch growth from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. After that time, larch growth increment has decreased. Since ca. 1990, water stress at the beginning of the vegetative period became, along with air temperature, a main factor affecting larch growth within the permafrost zone.

The larch (Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. Its persistence is considered to depend on near-surface permafrost, and thus, forecast warming over the 21st century and consequent degradation of near-surface permafrost is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of these effects vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land - atmosphere interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo-hydrology, although it does not consider many processes those are considered to affect productivity response to a changing climate (e.g., nitrogen limitation, waterlogged soil, heat stress, and change in species composition). The model showed that, under climatic conditions predicted under gradual and rapid warming, the annual net primary production of larch increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of the 21st century compared with that in the previous century. Soil water content during the larch-growing season showed no obvious trend, even when surface permafrost was allowed to decay and result in subsurface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecast temperature and precipitation trends extended larch leafing days and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity. The integrated model also satisfactorily reconstructed latitudinal gradients in permafrost presence, soil moisture, tree leaf area index, and biomass over the entire larch-dominated area in eastern Siberia. Projected changes to ecosystem hydrology and larch productivity at this geographical scale were consistent with those from site-level simulation. This study reduces the uncertainty surrounding the impact of current climate trends on this globally important carbon reservoir, and it demonstrates the need to consider complex ecological processes to make accurate predictions.

Continuous observation over the last decade has revealed evidence of abrupt land surface moistening as well as rapid soil warming within the active layer and upper part of permafrost within the central Lena River basin in eastern Siberia. The present study examined the relationship between permafrost degradation and ecohydrological change in this region. Increases in the depth of the active layer recorded since the winter of 2004 resulting from increases in moisture saturation within the soil have resulted in thawing the upper permafrost causing thermokarst subsidence, which has negatively impacted the growth of boreal (larch) forests in the region. According to multi-year sap flow measurements taken between 2006 and 2009, transpiration from larch trees (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) was significantly reduced as a result of the region's concave micro-topography, which, in conjunction with the deepening and moistening of the active layer, created perennially waterlogged conditions that left mature trees withered and dead. Several trees with reduced amounts of foliage showed a remarkable reduction in seasonal average canopy stomatal conductance during the 2009 growing season. The reduction ratio of canopy stomatal conductance within emergent trees of heights greater than 15m between 2006 and 2009 had a significant positive correlation with the increase in thickness of the active layer over that same period. These findings indicated that wetting trends in a permafrost region caused by arctic climate change may lead to unexpected ecohydrological responses with respect to permafrost degradation in eastern Siberia. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.