Boreal forests cover over half of the global permafrost area and protect underlying permafrost. Boreal forest development, therefore, has an impact on permafrost evolution, especially under a warming climate. Forest disturbances and changing climate conditions cause vegetation shifts and potentially destabilize the carbon stored within the vegetation and permafrost. Disturbed permafrost-forest ecosystems can develop into a dry or swampy bush- or grasslands, shift toward broadleaf- or evergreen needleleaf-dominated forests, or recover to the pre-disturbance state. An increase in the number and intensity of fires, as well as intensified logging activities, could lead to a partial or complete ecosystem and permafrost degradation. We study the impact of forest disturbances (logging, surface, and canopy fires) on the thermal and hydrological permafrost conditions and ecosystem resilience. We use a dynamic multilayer canopy-permafrost model to simulate different scenarios at a study site in eastern Siberia. We implement expected mortality, defoliation, and ground surface changes and analyze the interplay between forest recovery and permafrost. We find that forest loss induces soil drying of up to 44%, leading to lower active layer thicknesses and abrupt or steady decline of a larch forest, depending on disturbance intensity. Only after surface fires, the most common disturbances, inducing low mortality rates, forests can recover and overpass pre-disturbance leaf area index values. We find that the trajectory of larch forests after surface fires is dependent on the precipitation conditions in the years after the disturbance. Dryer years can drastically change the direction of the larch forest development within the studied period.

Larch-dominant communities are the most extensive high-latitude forests in Eurasia and are experiencing the strongest impacts from warming temperatures. We analyzed larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth index (GI) response to climate change. The studied larch-dominant communities are located within the permafrost zone of Northern Siberia at the northern tree limit (ca. N 67A degrees 38', E 99A degrees 07'). Methods included dendrochronology, analysis of climate variables, root zone moisture content, and satellite-derived gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity. It was found that larch response to warming included a period of increased annual growth increment (GI) (from the 1970s to ca. 1995) with a follow on GI decline. Increase in GI correlated with summer air temperature, whereas an observed decrease in GI was caused by water stress (vapor pressure deficit and drought increase). Water stress impact on larch growth in permafrost was not observed before the onset of warming (ca. 1970). Water limitation was also indicated by GI dependence on soil moisture stored during the previous year. Water stress was especially pronounced for stands growing on rocky soils with low water-holding capacity. GPP of larch communities showed an increasing trend, whereas NPP stagnated. A similar pattern of GI response to climate warming has also been observed for Larix sibirica Ledeb, Pinus sibirica Du Tour, and Abies sibirica Ledeb in the forests of southern Siberia. Thus, warming in northern Siberia permafrost zone resulted in an initial increase in larch growth from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. After that time, larch growth increment has decreased. Since ca. 1990, water stress at the beginning of the vegetative period became, along with air temperature, a main factor affecting larch growth within the permafrost zone.

The larch (Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. Its persistence is considered to depend on near-surface permafrost, and thus, forecast warming over the 21st century and consequent degradation of near-surface permafrost is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of these effects vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land - atmosphere interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo-hydrology, although it does not consider many processes those are considered to affect productivity response to a changing climate (e.g., nitrogen limitation, waterlogged soil, heat stress, and change in species composition). The model showed that, under climatic conditions predicted under gradual and rapid warming, the annual net primary production of larch increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of the 21st century compared with that in the previous century. Soil water content during the larch-growing season showed no obvious trend, even when surface permafrost was allowed to decay and result in subsurface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecast temperature and precipitation trends extended larch leafing days and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity. The integrated model also satisfactorily reconstructed latitudinal gradients in permafrost presence, soil moisture, tree leaf area index, and biomass over the entire larch-dominated area in eastern Siberia. Projected changes to ecosystem hydrology and larch productivity at this geographical scale were consistent with those from site-level simulation. This study reduces the uncertainty surrounding the impact of current climate trends on this globally important carbon reservoir, and it demonstrates the need to consider complex ecological processes to make accurate predictions.

Continuous observation over the last decade has revealed evidence of abrupt land surface moistening as well as rapid soil warming within the active layer and upper part of permafrost within the central Lena River basin in eastern Siberia. The present study examined the relationship between permafrost degradation and ecohydrological change in this region. Increases in the depth of the active layer recorded since the winter of 2004 resulting from increases in moisture saturation within the soil have resulted in thawing the upper permafrost causing thermokarst subsidence, which has negatively impacted the growth of boreal (larch) forests in the region. According to multi-year sap flow measurements taken between 2006 and 2009, transpiration from larch trees (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) was significantly reduced as a result of the region's concave micro-topography, which, in conjunction with the deepening and moistening of the active layer, created perennially waterlogged conditions that left mature trees withered and dead. Several trees with reduced amounts of foliage showed a remarkable reduction in seasonal average canopy stomatal conductance during the 2009 growing season. The reduction ratio of canopy stomatal conductance within emergent trees of heights greater than 15m between 2006 and 2009 had a significant positive correlation with the increase in thickness of the active layer over that same period. These findings indicated that wetting trends in a permafrost region caused by arctic climate change may lead to unexpected ecohydrological responses with respect to permafrost degradation in eastern Siberia. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Based on radial tree growth measurements in nine plots of area 625 m(2) (369 trees in total) and climate data, we explored the possibly changing effects of climate on regional tree growth in the temperate continental semi-arid mountain forests in the Tianshan Mountains in northwest China during 1933-2005. Tree growth in our study region is generally limited by the soil water content of pre-and early growing season (February-July). Remarkably, moving correlation functions identified a clear temporal change in the relationship between tree growth and mean April temperature. Tree growth showed a significant (p < 0 : 05) and negative relationship to mean April temperature since approximately the beginning of the 1970s, which indicated that the semi-arid mountain forests are suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent years accompanying spring warming. This prolonged limitation of tree growth was attributed to the effects of soil water limitation in early spring (March-April) caused by the rapid spring warming. Warming-induced prolonged drought stress contributes, to a large part, to the marked reduction of regional basal area increment (BAI) in recent years and a much slower growth rate in young trees. Our results highlight that the increasing water limitation induced by spring warming on tree growth most likely aggravated the marked reduction in tree growth. This work provides a better understanding of the effects of spring warming on tree growth in temperate continental semi-arid forests.

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires can degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amounts of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope and dry air conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. Here we identify surface moisture as an additional important driving factor for the evolution of extreme fire events in the Baikal region. An area of 127 000 km(2) burned in this region in 2003, a large part of it in regions underlain by permafrost. Analyses of satellite data for 2002-2009 indicate that previous-summer surface moisture is a better predictor for burned area than precipitation anomalies or fire weather indices for larch forests with continuous permafrost. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil, and how coupled mechanisms can lead to extreme events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, vegetation functioning, and fire activity in Earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century.

Boreal grasslands have been largely neglected in carbon and water vapor flux models despite being originated by past global climate changes. Therefore in this study, meteorological conditions, water vapor and CO2 fluxes were measured by the eddy correlation technique simultaneously in a larch forest and alas ecosystem (grassland thermokarst depression) in Central Yakutia, eastern Siberia, during the growing season of 2006 (approximately 100 days, May 23rd-August 31st). The alas ecosystem was a carbon sink (-1.38 tC ha(-1)) but had a 60% lower carbon sequestration capacity than the surrounding larch forest (-3.44 tC ha(-1)) during the study period. Despite this large difference in carbon exchange, water loss from the alas ecosystem (118 mm) was only 13% lower than that from the forest ecosystem (136 mm). Water vapor flux measured in the alas was higher under similar environmental conditions when the source was the lake water than when the source was the grassland. This supports the theory that lake evaporation contributes significantly to the evaporation from the alas as indicated also by the lake water level constant decrease during the growing season. Mid-summer forest and alas mean evapotranspiration was 1.4 and 1.2 mm d(-1) respectively. Mean daily canopy conductance was higher in the forest than in the alas (3.8 and 2.4 mm s(-1), respectively) as expected due to differences in canopy architecture at each site. In this study a rough estimate of the NEE of grassland in Central Yakutia shows an underestimation of 0.9 x 10(-3) Pg if this area is considered as forested, as most regional models do. Our results suggest that a more detail analysis of distinctive areas within the territory of eastern Siberia is needed in order to obtain a better understanding of carbon and water fluxes from this immense boreal region. Furthermore, if the present global warming evokes landscape change from forest to grassland, the carbon sink capacity of this boreal region could be significantly reduced. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.