Winter discharge of the Lena River (Russia) has increased over the previous several decades. However, the impact of permafrost thawing and of changing hydrological processes induced by climate change on the river's winter discharge is not well-quantified. Here, using a coupled land surface model and a distributed discharge model, we conducted trend analyses to examine the sensitivity of winter discharge to permafrost thawing and water budget change in the Lena River basin during 1979-2016. An increasing trend of winter baseflow was found in upper parts of both the Lena River basin and the Aldan River basin, where summer net precipitation showed a statistically significant increase. The increased summer net precipitation resulted in higher soil moisture in the deepened active layer in late summer and early autumn, which was linked to autumn and winter baseflow. These implications were examined from the perspective of interrelations among the trends of active layer thickness, soil moisture, and baseflow in the cold season by identifying regions in which all the variables exhibited positive trends. The identified source regions were primarily in the lower Lena River basin and upper basins of the Lena and Aldan rivers, although winter baseflow was more dominant in the latter regions owing to the freezing effect of the active layer. Thinning of river ice induced by warming temperatures also contributed to the increase of winter river discharge. These results suggest that the increased winter discharge was strongly associated with climate-change-related enhancement of permafrost thawing and increase in net precipitation that affected soil hydrological processes, which will be strengthened further in the context of global warming.

Global warming is likely to transform Siberian environments. Recent eco-hydrological evidence indicates that water and carbon cycles have been changing rapidly, with potentially serious effects on the Siberian flora and fauna. We have comprehensively analysed dendrochronological, hydrological, and meteorological data and satellite remote sensing data to track changes in vegetation and the water and carbon cycles in the Lena River Basin, eastern Siberia. The basin is largely covered with larch forest and receives little precipitation. However, from 2005 to 2008 the central part of the basin experienced an extraordinarily high level of precipitation in late summer and winter. This resulted in the degradation of permafrost, forest, and hydrological elements in the region. Dendrochronological data implied that this event was the only incidence of such conditions in the previous 150 years. Based on data collected before and after the event, we developed a permafrost-ecosystem model, including surface soil freeze-thawing processes, to better represent the heat, water, and carbon fluxes in the region. We focused on the surface soil layer, in which an increased thawing depth is now apparent, surface soil moisture, and net primary production. An analysis of observed and model-simulated data indicated that the annual maximum thawing depth (AMTD) had increased gradually on a decadal scale and deepened abruptly after 2005. Climatological analyses of atmospheric water circulation over the region indicated that the recent increases in precipitation over the central Lena River Basin were partly related to cyclone activity. Consequently, the increased precipitation from late-summer to winter resulted in increases in soil moisture, soil temperature, and AMTD in the region.