In recent years, frequent flood disasters have posed significant threats to human life and property. From 28 July to 1 August 2023, a basin-wide extreme flood occurred in the Haihe River Basin (23.7 flood). The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite can effectively detect the spatiotemporal characteristics of terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) and has been widely used in flood disaster monitoring. However, flood events usually occur on a submonthly scale. This study first utilizes near-real-time precipitation data to illustrate the evolution of the 23.7 extreme flood. We then reconstruct daily TWSA to improve the issues of coarse temporal resolution and data latency and further calculate wetness index (WI) to explore its flood warning. In addition, we analyze soil moisture storage anomalies to provide a comprehensive understanding of flood mechanisms. The study also compares the 2023 floods to a severe flood event in 2021. Results indicate that reconstructed daily TWSA increases by 143.43 mm in 6 days during the 23.7 flood, highlighting the high sensitivity of our approach to extreme events. Moreover, compared to daily runoff data, the WI consistently exceeds warning thresholds 2-3 days in advance, demonstrating the flood warning capability. The flood event 2021 is characterized by long duration and large precipitation extremes, whereas the 2023 flood affects a wider area. This study provides a reference for using daily TWSA to monitor short-term flood events and evaluate the flood warning potential of WI, aiming to enhance near-real-time flood monitoring and support flood prevention and damage mitigation efforts.
Brown carbon (BrC) has been recognized as an important light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosol, yet understanding of its influence on regional climate and air quality has been lacking, mainly due to the ignorance of regional coupled meteorology-chemistry models. Besides, assumptions about its emissions in previous explorations might cause large uncertainties in estimates. Here, we implemented a BrC module into the WRF-Chem model that considers source-dependent absorption and avoids uncertainties caused by assumptions about emission intensities. To our best knowledge, we made the first effort to consider BrC in a regional coupled model. We then applied the developed model to explore the impacts of BrC absorption on radiative forcing, regional climate, and air quality in East Asia. We found notable increases in aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) in areas with high OC concentrations. The most intense forcing of BrC absorption occurs in autumn over Southeast Asia, and values could reach around 4 W m(-2). The intensified atmospheric absorption modified surface energy balance, resulting in subsequent declines in surface temperature, heat flux, boundary layer height, and turbulence exchanging rates. These changes in meteorological variables additionally modified near-surface dispersion and photochemical conditions, leading to changes of PM2.5 and O-3 concentrations. These findings indicate that BrC could exert important influence in specific regions and time periods. A more in-depth understanding could be achieved later with the developed model.
Elevation plays a crucial role in modulating the spatiotemporal distributions of climatic variables in mountainous regions, which affects water and energy balances, among which reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key hydrological indicator. However, the response of ET0 to climate change with elevation continues to be poorly understood, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) which has elevation variations of more than 4,000m. The spatiotemporal variations of ET0 with elevation were investigated using long-term (1960-2017) meteorological observations from 82 stations on the TP. The results suggest that the average annual ET0 showed an insignificant increasing trend. A significant negative correlation between ET0 and elevation was found (p<.01). The positive trends of ET0 decreased with elevation, whereas the negative trends of ET0 increased significantly with elevation (p<.05). The magnitude of trends of ET0 becomes smaller at higher-elevation stations. Sensitivity analysis indicated that ET0 was most sensitive to shortwave radiation (R-s). Moreover, the sensitivities of temperature (T) and wind speed (U) significantly decreased with elevation, whereas those of R-s and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased slightly with elevation. The contribution and path analyse indicated that increasing VPD was the dominant contributor to the increase in ET0. The effect of elevation on ET0 variation mainly depended on the tradeoff between the contributions of U and VPD. U was the largest contributing factor for the change in ET0 below 2,500m, whereas VPD was the primary contributor to the increase in ET0 above 2,500m. This study provides insights into the response of ET0 to climate change with elevation on the TP, which is of great significance to hydrometeorological processes in high-altitude regions.
Predicting and managing the impacts of fl ash droughts is difficult fi cult owing to their rapid onset and intensifica- fi ca- tion. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that fl ash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens fl ash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence fl uence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated fl ash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981-2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of fl ash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in fl ash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, fl ash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, fl ash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of fl ash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fi delity could aid in monitoring fl ash droughts and improve the prediction of fl ash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.
Recent research on the Himalayan cryosphere has increasingly been focused on climate uncertainty and regional variations, considering features such as glacier recession, lake expansion, outburst floods, and regional hazards. The Bhilangana river basin, located in the central Himalayas, is predominantly characterized by increased elevation-dependent warming and declining seasonal precipitation. Our study shows that high-elevation temperature increased from 2000 to 2022 (0.05(degrees)C/year, p = 20 m/sec). Quantification of the regional hazard reveals potentially severe downstream challenges for low-to-medium-scale hydropower stations, local settlements, and road and railway bridges near Devling and Ghuttu villages.
Carbonaceous particles have been confirmed as major components of ambient aerosols in urban environments and are related to climate impacts and environmental and health effects. In this study, we collected different-size particulate matter (PM) samples (PM1, PM2.5, and PM10) at an urban site in Lanzhou, northwest China, during three discontinuous one-month periods (January, April, and July) of 2019. We measured the concentrations and potential transport pathways of carbonaceous aerosols in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 size fractions. The average concentrations of OC (organic carbon) and EC (elemental carbon) in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 were 6.98 +/- 3.71 and 2.11 +/- 1.34 mu g/m(3), 8.6 +/- 5.09 and 2.55 +/- 1.44 mu g/m(3), and 11.6 +/- 5.72 and 4.01 +/- 1.72 mu g/m(3). The OC and EC concentrations in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 had similar seasonal trends, with higher values in winter due to the favorable meteorology for accumulating pollutants and urban-increased emissions from heating. Precipitation played a key role in scavenge pollutants, resulting in lower OC and EC concentrations in summer. The OC/EC ratios and principal component analysis (PCA) showed that the dominant pollution sources of carbon components in the PMs in Lanzhou were biomass burning, coal combustion, and diesel and gasoline vehicle emissions; and the backward trajectory and concentration weight trajectory (CWT) analysis further suggested that the primary pollution source of EC in Lanzhou was local fossil fuel combustion.
To address data scarcity on long-term glacial discharge and inadequacies in simulating and predicting hydrological processes in the Tien Shan, this study analysed the observed discharge at multiple timescales over 1980s-2017 and projected changes within a representative glacierized high-mountain region: eastern Tien Shan, Central Asia. Hydrological processes were simulated to predict changes under four future scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) using a classical hydrological model coupled with a glacier dynamics module. Discharge rates at annual, monthly (June, July, August) and daily timescales were obtained from two hydrological gauges: Urumqi Glacier No.1 hydrological station (UGH) and Zongkong station (ZK). Overall, annual and summer discharge increased significantly ( p < 0.05) at both stations over the study period. Their intra-annual variations mainly resulted from differences in their recharge mechanisms. The simulations show that a tipping point in annual discharge at UGH may occur between 2018 and 2024 under the four SSPs scenarios. Glacial discharge is predicted to cease earlier at ZK than at UGH. This relates to glacier type and size, suggesting basins with heavily developed small glaciers will reach peak discharge sooner, resulting in an earlier freshwater supply challenge. These findings serve as a reference for research into glacial runoff in Central Asia and provide a decision-making basis for planning local water-resource projects.
Using interviews and surveys of 212 households in villages situated at different elevations in the Everest National Nature Preserve (ENNP), correlations and comparative analyses were employed to reveal the residents' perceptions and understanding of climate change and its effects on the ENNP. Results showed that: (1) nearly all residents thought that climate warming and ice-snow landscape decrease were very significant, but there was an obvious difference between the residents' cognition and observations to the change of runoff; (2) higher altitude is, more obvious warming is, and stronger residents' perception of climate change and its impacts is in the ENNP, for which educational level and age were the main factors affecting their degree of perception; (3) especially, higher altitude is, more frequent the tourism participation of residents is and higher their income is; and (4) because the centralized pollutant treatment facilities have a low efficiency, and because the area receives a large number of tourists whose activities are spatially scattered, the potential risk of environmental pollution has been increasing in recent years. At present there is an urgent need for policy suggestions at the strategic level of national ecological security and interregional equity principles concerning the adaptation to climate and environmental changes in the ENNP.
The of the Yellow River between its source and Hekou Town in Inner Mongolia is known as the Upper Yellow River Basin. It is the main source area of water resources in the Yellow River Basin, providing reliable water resources for 120 million people. Studying the hydrometeorological changes in the Upper Yellow River Basin is crucial for the development of human society. However, in the past, there has been limited research on hydrometeorological changes in the Upper Yellow River Basin. In order to clarify the four-dimensional spatiotemporal variation characteristics of hydrometeorological elements in the Upper Yellow River Basin, satellite and reanalysis hydrometeorological elements products need to be used. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of precise evaluation studies on satellite and reanalysis hydrometeorological elements products in the Upper Yellow River Basin, and the geomorphic characteristics of this area have raised doubts about the accuracy of satellite and reanalysis hydrometeorological elements products. Thus, the evaluation study in the Upper Yellow River Basin is an important prerequisite for studying the four-dimensional spatiotemporal changes of hydrometeorological elements. When conducting evaluation study, we found that previous evaluation studies had a very confusing understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of datasets. Some papers even treated the spatiotemporal characteristics of evaluation metrics as the spatiotemporal characteristics of datasets. Therefore, we introduced a four-dimensional spacetime of both datasets and evaluation metrics to rectify the chaotic spatiotemporal view in the past. Our research results show that satellite and reanalysis hydrometeorological elements products have different abilities in describing the temporal and spatial distribution and change characteristics of hydrometeorological elements. The difference in the ability of satellite and reanalysis hydrometeorological elements products to describe temporal and spatial distribution and change characteristics requires us to select data at different temporal and spatial scales according to research needs when conducting hydrometeorological research, in order to ensure the credibility of the research results.
We use a spatially distributed and physically based energy and mass balance model to derive the ostrem curve, which expresses the supraglacial debris-related relative melt alteration versus the debris thickness, for the Djankuat Glacier, Caucasus, Russian Federation. The model is driven by meteorological data from two on-glacier weather stations and ERA-5 Land reanalysis data. A direct pixel-by-pixel comparison of the melt rates obtained from both a clean ice and debris-covered ice mass balance model results in the quantification of debris-related relative melt-modification ratios, capturing the degree of melt enhancement or suppression as a function of the debris thickness. The main results show that the distinct surface features and different surface temperature/moisture and near-surface wind regimes that persist over debris-covered ice significantly alter the pattern of the energy and mass fluxes when compared to clean ice. Consequently, a maximum relative melt enhancement of 1.36 is modeled on the glacier for thin/patchy debris with a thickness of 0.03 m. However, insulating effects suppress sub-debris melt under debris layers thicker than a critical debris thickness of 0.09 m. Sensitivity experiments show that especially within-debris properties, such as the thermal conductivity and the vertical debris porosity gradient, highly impact the magnitude of the sub-debris melt rates. Our results also highlight the scale-dependency as well as the dynamic nature of the debris thickness-melt relationship for changing climatic conditions, which may have significant implications for the climate change response of debris-covered glaciers. The presence of rocks, boulders and sediments on top of glacier ice can highly modify the behavior of mountain glaciers. As such, compared to a clean ice surface, a debris-covered ice surface is subject to a modified melting regime. In our study, we quantify this melt-modification effect for the Djankuat Glacier, a well-studied glacier situated in the Caucasus. The results are expressed by a so-called ostrem curve that quantifies the debris-related melt-modification effect and compares it to the corresponding debris thickness. Here, we present the first attempt to construct such a glacier-specific ostrem curve through sophisticated 2D glacier-wide energy and mass balance modeling. Our results show that the energy and mass balance at the glacier surface are greatly modified due to the debris, resulting in different melting regimes over both surface types. Hence, ice melt is enhanced for thin and patchy debris layers, whereas melt is increasingly suppressed for thick and continuous debris layers due to an insulating effect. The degree of melt modification and the shape of the ostrem curve are found to depend on the debris properties, the spatio-temporal distribution of the debris, and the local climatic conditions. Quantifying such melt-modification effects is important to more accurately understand and assess the behavior of (partly) debris-covered glaciers under a future warming climate. We use a spatially distributed and physically based energy and mass balance model to derive the ostrem curve for the Djankuat Glacier The sub-debris melt rates are especially sensitive to within-debris properties, such as the thermal conductivity, the debris porosity and its gradient The relative melt suppression of the debris cover is modeled to increase in a warming climate, regardless of the changes in debris thickness