Global warming effects in temperate and polar regions include higher average temperatures and a decrease in snow cover, which together lead to an increase in the number of freeze-thaw cycles (FTC). These changes could affect the fitness of both terrestrial and aquatic species. In this study, we tested how tardigrades, ubiquitous microscopic invertebrates, face FTC. Tardigrades are amongst the most resistant animals to unfavorable conditions, including long and deep freezing periods, and are an emerging model group for invertebrate ecology and evolution. We used 12 populations of tardigrades, representing different families within order Parachela, inhabiting different ecosystems (glaciers, snow, terrestrial, aquatic), found in various substrates (mosses, sediments in lakes, cryoconite on glaciers, and snow), and originating from different latitudes and altitudes. We estimated the number of cycles required to kill 50% of individuals and tested for its association with ecological characteristics of the natural habitat (e.g., number of months with predicted FTC), while accounting for phylogeny. The most resistant tardigrades to FTC were the ones from mountain areas and glaciers. The estimated number of cycles required to kill 50% of individuals was the highest for mountainous species inhabiting rock pools and cryoconite holes on glaciers (30 and 14 FTC, respectively). Tardigrades from lowlands were the most sensitive to changes, with 50% of individuals dying after three FTC, while lacustrine and subtropical tardigrades required only one FTC to reach 50% mortality. Our study shows that the response to recurrent freezing stress is taxon dependent and related to the local environmental conditions. The predicted increase of FTC cycles will negatively impact tardigrade populations. Considering the abundance and various trophic roles of tardigrades, reduction in population sizes or the disappearance of some fragile species could affect the functioning of both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Tardigrades are candidate indicators of how freeze-thaw cycles impact ubiquitous microscopic metazoans with similar physiological capabilities.

Historically, cargo ships have been powered by low-grade fossil fuels, which emit particles and particle-precursor vapors that impact human health and climate. We used a global chemical-transport model with online aerosol microphysics (GEOS-Chem-TOMAS) to estimate the aerosol health and climate impacts of four emission-control policies: (1) 85% reduction in sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions (Sulf); (2) 85% reduction in SOx and black carbon (BC) emissions (Sulf-BC); (3) 85% reduction in SOx, BC, and organic aerosol (OA) emissions (Sulf-BC-OA); and (4) 85% reduction in SOx, BC, OA, and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions (Sulf-BC-OA-NOx). The SOx reductions reflect the 0.5% fuel-sulfur cap implemented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on 1 January 2020. The other reductions represent realistic estimates of future emission-control policies. We estimate that these policies could reduce fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable mortalities by 13 300 (Sulf) to 38 600 (Sulf-BC-OA-NOx) mortalities per year. These changes represent 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively, of annual PM2.5-attributable mortalities from anthropogenic sources. Comparing simulations, we estimate that adding the NOx cap has the greatest health benefit. In contrast to the health benefits, all scenarios lead to a simulated climate warming tendency. The combined aerosol direct radiative effect and cloud-albedo indirect effects (AIE) are between 27 mW m(-2) (Sulf) and 41 mW m(-2) (Sulf-BC-OA-NOx). These changes are about 2.1% (Sulf) to 3.2% (Sulf-BC-OA-NOx) of the total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing. The emission control policies examined here yield larger relative changes in the aerosol radiative forcing (2.1%-3.2%) than in health effects (0.3%-0.8%), because most shipping emissions are distant from populated regions. Valuation of the impacts suggests that these emissions reductions could produce much larger marginal health benefits ($129-$374 billion annually) than the marginal climate costs ($12-$17 billion annually).

Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate climate change due to overlapping sources of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and because a subset of pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), directly contribute to both impacts. However, planners in low- and middle-income countries often lack practical tools to quantify the air pollution and climate change impacts of different policies and measures. This paper presents a modelling framework implemented in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to develop integrated strategies to improve air quality, human health and mitigate climate change. The framework estimates emissions of greenhouse gases, SLCPs and air pollutants for historical years, and future projections for baseline and mitigation scenarios. These emissions are then used to quantify i) population-weighted annual average ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the target country, ii) household PM2.5 exposure of different population groups living in households cooking using different fuels/technologies and iii) radiative forcing from all emissions. Health impacts (premature mortality) attributable to ambient and household PM2.5 exposure and changes in global average temperature change are then estimated. This framework is applied in Bangladesh to evaluate the air quality and climate change benefits from implementation of Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs. Results show that the measures included to reduce GHGs in Bangladesh's NDC also have substantial benefits for air quality and human health. Full implementation of Bangladesh's NDC, and National SLCP Plan would reduce carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon and primary PM2.5 emissions by 25%, 34%, 46% and 45%, respectively in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario. These emission reductions could reduce population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations in Bangladesh by 18% in 2030, and avoid approximately 12,000 and 100,000 premature deaths attributable to ambient and household PM2.5 exposures, respectively, in 2030. As countries are simultaneously planning to achieve the climate goals in the Paris Agreement, improve air quality to reduce health impacts and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the LEAP-IBC tool provides a practical framework by which planners can develop integrated strategies, achieving multiple air quality and climate benefits.

Particle-phase air pollution is a leading risk factor for premature death globally and impacts climate by scattering or absorbing radiation and changing cloud properties. Within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, where there are severe air quality problems, several municipalities have begun implementing a coal-to-electricity program that bans residential coal and provides subsidies for electricity and electric-powered heat pumps. We used GEOS-Chem to evaluate two complete residential coal-to-electricity transitions-a Beijing-off scenario and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off scenario-each relative to a base case. We estimate that within China, the ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) reductions in the Beijing-off scenario could lead to 1,900 (95% CI: 1,200-2,700) premature deaths avoided annually, while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off scenario could lead to 13,700 (95% CI: 8,900-19,600) premature deaths avoided annually. Additionally, we estimate that the residential-coal-ban scenarios will result in a positive top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) (model domain average: Beijing-off: 0.023 W m(-2); Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off: 0.30 W m(-2)) and a negligible cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE) (Beijing-off: 0.0001 W m(-2); Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off: 0.0027 W m(-2)). To evaluate the uncertainty of the radiative effects, we calculated the DRE under four black-carbon mixing-state assumptions and both the DRE and AIE assuming three different black-carbon-to-organic-aerosol (BC:OA) ratios for residential-coal emissions. Although the magnitude of our radiative forcing estimates varied across sensitivity cases, the domain average remained positive. When only considering the aerosol-related effects of the aforementioned coal-ban scenarios, we predict substantial health benefits, but do not anticipate a climate co-benefit, because removing aerosol emissions leads to a warming tendency. However, if the coal-to-electricity program results in less net greenhouse gas emissions due to the replacement heaters, the policy may be able to achieve health and climate co-benefits.

Helicoverpa armigera causes serious damage to most crops around the world. However, the impacts of snow thickness on the H. armigera overwintering pupae are little known. A field experiment was employed in 2012-2015 at Urumqi, China. At soil depths of 5, 10, and 15 cm, overwintering pupae were embedded with four treatments: no snow cover (NSC), snow cover (SC), increasing snow thickness to 1.5 times the thickness of SC (ISSC-1), and to two times the thickness of SC (ISSC-2). Results suggested that snow cover and increasing snow thickness both significantly increased soil temperatures, which helped to decrease the mortality of overwintering pupae (MOP) of H. armigera. However, the MOP did not always decrease with increases in snow thickness. The MOPs in NSC and ISSC-1 were the highest and the lowest, respectively, though ISSC-2 had much thicker snow thickness than ISSC-1. A maximum snow thickness of 60 cm might lead to the lowest MOP. The longer the snow cover duration (SCD) at a soil depth of 10 cm in March and April was, the higher the MOP was. A thicker snow cover layer led to a higher soil moisture content (SMC) and a lower diurnal soil temperature range (DSTR). The highest and the lowest MOP were at a depth of 15 and 10 cm, respectively. The SMC at the depths of 10 and 15 cm had significant effects on MOP. A lower accumulated temperature (a 0 A degrees C) led to a higher MOP. The DSTR in March of approximately 4.5 A degrees C might cause the lowest MOP. The largest influence factor for the MOPs at depths of 5 and 10 cm and the combined data were the SCDs during the whole experimental period, and for the MOPs at a depth of 15 cm was the soil temperature in November.

Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most damaging insect pests in the world. However, little is known about the effects of snow cover and soil temperature on the overwintering pupae of H. armigera. A field experiment was conducted from November 2, 2012 to April 24, 2013 at the agrometeorological experimental station in Wulanwusu, China. Overwintering pupae were embedded into the soil at depths of 5, 10, and 15 cm in the following four treatments: without snow cover, snow cover, and increased temperatures from 600 and 1200 W infrared lights. The results showed that snow cover and rising temperatures could all markedly increase soil temperatures, which was helpful in improving the survival of the overwintering pupae of H. armigera. The mortality of overwintering pupae (MOP) at a depth of 15 cm was the highest, and the MOP at a depth of 5 cm followed. The lower accumulated temperature (a parts per thousand currency sign0 A degrees C) (AT a parts per thousand currency sign A degrees C) led to the higher MOP, and the lower diurnal soil temperature range (DSTR) likely led to the lower MOP. After snowmelt, the MOPs at the depths of 5 and 10 cm increased as the soil temperature increased, especially in April. The AT of the soil (a parts per thousand currency sign0 A degrees C) was the factor with the strongest effect on MOP. The soil moisture content was not a major factor affecting the MOP in this semiarid region because precipitation was 45 mm over the entire experimental period. With climate warming, the MOP will likely decrease, and the overwintering boundary air temperatures of H. armigera should be expanded due to higher soil temperatures and increased snow cover.

Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), a sulfate (SO42-) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO42- and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions Of SO2, 4 OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration-response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO42- and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of -74 mW m(-2) in 2000 and between -15 and -97 mW m(-2) in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.