Uncertainty plays a key role in hydrological modeling and forecasting, which can have tremendous environmental, economic, and social impacts. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend the nature of this uncertainty and identify its scope and effects in a way that enhances hydrological modeling and forecasting. During recent decades, hydrological researchers investigated several approaches for reducing inherent uncertainty considering the limitations of sensor measurement, calibration, parameter setting, model conceptualization, and validation. Nevertheless, the scope and diversity of applications and methodologies, sometimes brought from other disciplines, call for an extensive review of the state-of-the-art in this field in a way that promotes a holistic view of the proposed concepts and provides textbook-like guidelines to hydrology researchers and the community. This paper contributes to this goal where a systematic review of the last decade's research (2010 onward) is carried out. It aims to synthesize the theories and tools for uncertainty reduction in surface hydrological forecasting, providing insights into the limitations of the current state-of-the-art and laying down foundations for future research. A special focus on remote sensing and multi-criteria-based approaches has been considered. In addition, the paper reviews the current state of uncertainty ontology in hydrological studies and provides new categorizations of the reviewed techniques. Finally, a set of freely accessible remotely sensed data and tools useful for uncertainty handling and hydrological forecasting are reviewed and pointed out.

Mountains are the water towers of the world, so it is critical to obtain accurate precipitation data for mountainous areas. Due to the complex topography of high mountainous areas, precipitation ground stations are sparse and unevenly distributed in such areas, so precipitation products such as remote sensing and reanalysis products are used to obtain gridded precipitation data for these areas. However, no single precipitation product performs best in all areas of mountainous regions. Therefore, this study first evaluated the performance of 12 precipitation products in estimating precipitation in the Qilian Mountains at the station scale and sub-basin scale, and then compared the performance of precipitation estimates for the Qilian Mountains generated by 8 multimodel averaging methods. The evaluation results for 29 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains showed that the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset product was the best-performing precipitation product, while the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record product was the worst-performing precipitation product. The evaluation results for 18 sub-basins showed that at these sub-basins, the WorldClim was the best-performing precipitation product, while the High Asia Refined analysis was the worst-performing precipitation product. Thus, station-scale evaluations may not necessarily be applicable to the basin scale. Multi-model averaging methods effectively improved the accuracy of precipitation estimates both at station scale and at sub-basin scale. The Granger-Ramanathan variant C was the best multi-model averaging method for estimating precipitation at station scale. As the Granger-Ramanathan methods allow negative weights, they are not recommended to interpolate the Granger-Ramanathan weight values of stations to grids. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was found to be the most suitable multi-model averaging method for estimating precipitation in the Qilian Mountains by interpolation of weight values of stations to grids. The precipitation estimates generated by BMA show that the mean annual precipitation in the Qilian Mountains from 2001 to 2018 was approximately 336.1 mm, and the annual precipitation during this period increased linearly by 2.4 mm per year.