Thawing and freezing of Arctic soils is affected by many factors, with air temperature, vegetation, snow accumulation, and soil physical properties and soil moisture among the most important. We enhance the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model and develop several high spatial resolution scenarios of changes in permafrost characteristics in the Alaskan Arctic in response to observed and projected climate change. The ground thermal properties of surface vegetation and soil column are upscaled using the Ecosystems of Northern Alaska map and temperature data assimilation from the shallow boreholes across the Alaska North Slope. Soil temperature dynamics are simulated by solving the 1-D nonlinear heat equation with phase change, while the snow temperature and thickness are simulated by considering the snow accumulation, compaction, and melting processes. The model is verified by comparing with available active layer thickness at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites, permafrost temperature, and snow depth records from existing permafrost observatories in the North Slope region.

1 To explore the role of edaphic controls in the response of arctic tundra to climate change, we analysed Holocene pollen records from lakes in northern Alaska located on glaciated surfaces with contrasting soil texture, topography and tundra communities. Using indicator taxa, pollen accumulation rates (PARs) and multivariate comparison of fossil and modern pollen assemblages, we reconstructed the vegetational changes at Upper Capsule Lake (Sagavanirktok surface) and Red Green Lake (Itkillik II surface) in response to increased effective moisture between the early and middle Holocene. 2 In the Red Green record, low PARs and the continuous presence of taxa indicative of prostrate-shrub tundra (PST; Equisetum, Polypodiaceae, Thalictrum and Rosaceae) indicate that the vegetation resembled PST throughout the Holocene. During the warm, dry early Holocene (11 300-10 000 cal years BP), PST also occurred on Sagavanirktok surfaces, as evidenced by PST indicators (Bryidae, Polypodiaceae, Equisetum and Rosaceae) in this interval of the Upper Capsule record. However, PARs increased, suggesting increased vegetation cover, PST taxa declined and taxa indicative of dwarf-shrub tundra (DST; Rubus chamaemorus and Lycopodium annotinum) increased between 10 000 and 7500 cal years BP. 3 We hypothesize that between the early and middle Holocene the fine-textured soils and smooth topography of Sagavanirktok surfaces led to increased soil moisture, greater vegetation cover, permafrost aggradation, anoxic and acidic soil conditions, slower decomposition and the development of a thick organic layer. In contrast, soil moisture remained low on the better-drained Itkillik II surface, and vegetational changes were minor. 4 Landscape-scale substrate variations have an effect on how tundra responds to climate change, suggesting that the response of arctic ecosystems to future variability may be spatially heterogeneous.