There are 14 northern communities in Nunavik, the Arctic region of Quebec province, Canada. Transportation infrastructure plays a vital role in the social and economic development of these localities. The thawing of permafrost compromises the stability of northern transportation infrastructure. Harsh Arctic climate conditions limit the installation of effective monitoring systems to assess infrastructure stability. In Akulivik, the access road connects the Akulivik airport and the village of Akulivik. There is no monitoring to observe the thermal condition of the permafrost foundation of the access road, hindering the capacity to perform preventive maintenance activities, especially in the context of observed climate warming in Nunavik. This paper describes a project aiming at the assessment of the stability of the access road using a new approach and proposes adaptation solutions to stabilize the road, based on design tools recently developed. Particular attention was paid to the foundation soil under the side slope where relatively rapid permafrost degradation was occurring due to accumulated snow. The results indicate a positive thermal gradient of 0.29 degrees C/m under the side slope and a near-zero thermal gradient under the centerline. Projected climate warming was also considered to further investigate the thermal condition, providing a safety margin for the design of promising adaptation solutions. These results assist government agencies in evaluating the thermal conditions of underlying permafrost and deploying potential adaptation solutions in Akulivik.

Simulations with a one-dimensional heat transfer model (TONE) were performed to reproduce the near surface ground temperature regime in the four main types of soil profiles found in Narsajuaq River Valley (Nunavik, Canada) for the period 1990-2100. The permafrost thermal regime was simulated using climate data from a reanalysis (1948-2002), climate stations (1989-1991, 2002-2019) and simulations based on climate warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2019-2100). The model was calibrated based on extensive field measurements made between 1989 and 2019. The results were used to estimate when soil thermal contraction cracking will eventually stop and to forecast the melting of ice wedges due to active-layer thickening. For the period 1990-2019, all soil profiles experienced cracking every year until 2006, when cracking became intermittent during a warm period before completely stopping in 2009-2010, after which cracking resumed during colder years. Ice-wedge tops melted from 1992 to 2010 as the active layer thickened, indicating that top-down ice-wedge degradation can occur simultaneously with cracking and growth in width. Our predictions show that ice wedges in the valley will completely stop cracking between 2024 and 2096, first in sandy soils and later in soils with thicker organic horizons. The timing will also depend on greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. All ice wedges in the study area will probably experience some degradation of their main body before the end of the century, causing their roots to become relict ice by the end of the 21st century.

To assess the direct impact of climate change on ice-wedge (IW) degradation, 16 sites in the Narsajuaq river valley (Nunavik, Canada) that were extensively studied between 1989 and 1991 were revisited in 2016, 2017 and 2018. In total, 109 pits were dug to record soil characteristics and IW shapes and depths. Changes in surface conditions were also noted using side-by-side comparisons of recent (2017) and older (1989-1991) land and aerial photographs. During the past 25 years, the active layer reached depths that were 1.2-3.4 times deeper than in 1991, which led to the widespread degradation of IWs in the valley. Whereas 94% of the IWs unearthed in 1991 showed multiple recent growth structures, only 13% of the 55 IWs unearthed in 2017 still had some upgrowth stages left. IW tops are now consistently deeper than the main stages of the IWs measured in 1991. In August 2017, however, about half of the IWs had ice veins connecting them to the base of the active layer, an indication that the recent cooling spell (2010 to present) in the region was enough to reactivate frost cracking and IW growth. This paper highlights how sensitive the Arctic soil system can be to short-term climate variations.