Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales.

1 To explore the role of edaphic controls in the response of arctic tundra to climate change, we analysed Holocene pollen records from lakes in northern Alaska located on glaciated surfaces with contrasting soil texture, topography and tundra communities. Using indicator taxa, pollen accumulation rates (PARs) and multivariate comparison of fossil and modern pollen assemblages, we reconstructed the vegetational changes at Upper Capsule Lake (Sagavanirktok surface) and Red Green Lake (Itkillik II surface) in response to increased effective moisture between the early and middle Holocene. 2 In the Red Green record, low PARs and the continuous presence of taxa indicative of prostrate-shrub tundra (PST; Equisetum, Polypodiaceae, Thalictrum and Rosaceae) indicate that the vegetation resembled PST throughout the Holocene. During the warm, dry early Holocene (11 300-10 000 cal years BP), PST also occurred on Sagavanirktok surfaces, as evidenced by PST indicators (Bryidae, Polypodiaceae, Equisetum and Rosaceae) in this interval of the Upper Capsule record. However, PARs increased, suggesting increased vegetation cover, PST taxa declined and taxa indicative of dwarf-shrub tundra (DST; Rubus chamaemorus and Lycopodium annotinum) increased between 10 000 and 7500 cal years BP. 3 We hypothesize that between the early and middle Holocene the fine-textured soils and smooth topography of Sagavanirktok surfaces led to increased soil moisture, greater vegetation cover, permafrost aggradation, anoxic and acidic soil conditions, slower decomposition and the development of a thick organic layer. In contrast, soil moisture remained low on the better-drained Itkillik II surface, and vegetational changes were minor. 4 Landscape-scale substrate variations have an effect on how tundra responds to climate change, suggesting that the response of arctic ecosystems to future variability may be spatially heterogeneous.