Environmental changes, such as climate warming and higher herbivory pressure, are altering the carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems; yet, how these drivers modify the carbon balance among different habitats remains uncertain. This hampers our ability to predict changes in the carbon sink strength of tundra ecosystems. We investigated how spring goose grubbing and summer warming-two key environmental-change drivers in the Arctic-alter CO2 fluxes in three tundra habitats varying in soil moisture and plant-community composition. In a full-factorial experiment in high-Arctic Svalbard, we simulated grubbing and warming over two years and determined summer net ecosystem exchange (NEE) alongside its components: gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). After two years, we found net CO2 uptake to be suppressed by both drivers depending on habitat. CO2 uptake was reduced by warming in mesic habitats, by warming and grubbing in moist habitats, and by grubbing in wet habitats. In mesic habitats, warming stimulated ER (+75%) more than GEP (+30%), leading to a 7.5-fold increase in their CO2 source strength. In moist habitats, grubbing decreased GEP and ER by similar to 55%, while warming increased them by similar to 35%, with no changes in summer-long NEE. Nevertheless, grubbing offset peak summer CO2 uptake and warming led to a twofold increase in late summer CO2 source strength. In wet habitats, grubbing reduced GEP (-40%) more than ER (-30%), weakening their CO2 sink strength by 70%. One-year CO2-flux responses were similar to two-year responses, and the effect of simulated grubbing was consistent with that of natural grubbing. CO2-flux rates were positively related to aboveground net primary productivity and temperature. Net ecosystem CO2 uptake started occurring above similar to 70% soil moisture content, primarily due to a decline in ER. Herein, we reveal that key environmental-change drivers-goose grubbing by decreasing GEP more than ER and warming by enhancing ER more than GEP-consistently suppress net tundra CO2 uptake, although their relative strength differs among habitats. By identifying how and where grubbing and higher temperatures alter CO2 fluxes across the heterogeneous Arctic landscape, our results have implications for predicting the tundra carbon balance under increasing numbers of geese in a warmer Arctic.

Aim Climate change results in increasing temperature and modified precipitation regimes in the High Arctic. Models can help anticipate the consequences on future biotic dynamics, e.g. vegetation. In rugged terrain, forecasts should consider fine-scale spatial variability in environmental conditions that are proximally linked to plant performance. Here, we forecasted Arctic plant community response to future climate change using high-resolution environmental variables. Location Methods Zackenberg in the High Arctic of Greenland. Using a combination of remote-sensing data and field measurements, we interpolated soil moisture and temperature at 1 m resolution together with spatial data on snow cover and solar radiation. We calibrated stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) with data from 200 vegetation plots. To explore the sensitivity of Arctic communities to climate change, we forecasted these models under simulated increases in temperature and changes (positive or negative) in snow cover and soil moisture, corresponding to more winter and/or summer precipitation and higher frequencies of summer droughts. Results Main conclusions S-SDMs associated with high-resolution environmental variables were able to reproduce the spatial variation in species richness and plant community structure along a mountain slope in Zackenberg. Model forecasts under climate change revealed that most species reacted to a combination of changes in soil moisture and temperature, and changes in these two variables resulted in an extensive restructuring of the distributions of species assemblages. In most scenarios, a gradual homogenization of communities was forecasted due to shrub expansion. Increasing temperatures and altered soil moisture were predicted to turn the currently highly heterogeneous tundra landscape at Zackenberg into homogenous dwarf-shrub tundra. Such homogenization of vegetation communities may have profound ramifications for species, interaction webs, and ecosystem processes via modifications to the surface albedo, energy and water balance, as well as snow accumulation and permafrost.

Questions: Are there changes in species composition of the oceanic, Low-Arctic tundra vegetation after 40 years? Can possible changes be attributed to climate change? Location: Ammassalik Island near Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland. Methods: Species composition and cover of 11 key vegetation types were recorded in 110 vegetation survey plots in 1968-1969 and in 11 permanent plots in 1981. Recording was repeated in 2007. Temporal changes in species composition and cover between the surveys were tested using permutation tests linked with constrained ordinations for vegetation types, and Mann-Whitney tests for individual species. Changes in vegetation were related to climate change. Results: Although climate became warmer over the studied period, most of the vegetation types showed minor changes. The changes were most conspicuous in mire and snowbed vegetation, such as the Carex rariflora mire and Hylocomium splendens snowbed. In the C. rariflora mire, species number and cover of vascular plants and cover of bryophytes increased, whereas in the H. splendens snowbed species numbers of vascular plants, bryophytes, and also lichens increased. Lichen richness increased in the Carex bigelowii snowbed and cover of bryophytes in the Salix herbacea snowbed. No such changes occurred in the Alchemilla glomerulans meadow, Alchemilla alpina snowbed and Phyllodoce coerulea heath. There was no change of species composition within the Salix glauca scrub, A. alpina snowbed, lichen grassland and the Empetrum nigrum and Phyllodoce coerulea heaths. Most changes resulted from increasing frequency or cover of some species; there were very few decreasing species. Most of the increasing species indicate drier substrate conditions. Conclusions: Only minor changes in species composition and cover were detected in the vegetation types studied. These changes were probably caused by milder winters and warmer summers during the years before the 2007 sampling. Climate warming may have reduced the duration of snow cover and soil moisture, particularly in snowbed and mire habitats, where species composition change was most pronounced. However, its magnitude was insufficient to cause a major change in species composition. Thus, on the level of plant community types, tundra vegetation near Tasiilaq was rather stable over the last 40 years.