Climate change is reshaping the risk landscape for natural gas pipelines, with landslides emerging as a major driver of technological accidents triggered by natural hazards (Natech events). Conventional Natech risk models rarely incorporate climate-sensitive parameters such as groundwater levels and soil moisture, limiting their capacity to capture evolving threats. This study develops a probabilistic model that explicitly links climate-driven landslide susceptibility to pipeline vulnerability, providing a quantitative basis for assessing pipeline failure probability under different emission projection scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulations across five regions in China, the results show that under high-emission pathways (SSP5-8.5), pipeline failure probability in summer increases dramatically. For example, from 0.320 to 0.943 in Xinjiang, 0.112 to 0.220 in Sichuan, and 0.087 to 0.188 in Hainan. In cold regions, winter failure probability more than doubles, rising from 0.206 to 0.501 in Heilongjiang and from 0.235 to 0.488 in Beijing. These shifts reveal an overall increase in risk, intensification of seasonal contrasts, and, in some areas, a reconfiguration of high-risk periods. Sensitivity analysis highlights groundwater levels and soil moisture as the dominant drivers, with regional differences shaped by precipitation regimes, permafrost thaw, and typhoon impacts. Building on these insights, this study proposes an AI-based condition-monitoring framework that integrates real-time climate and geotechnical data to support adaptive early warning and safety management.

Rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere threatens ancient permafrost carbon. Once thawed, permafrost carbon may migrate to surface waters. However, the magnitude of permafrost carbon processed by northern freshwater remains uncertain. Here, we compiled '1800 radiocarbon data of aquatic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Arctic and Qinghai -Tibet Plateau (QTP) to explore the fate of permafrost carbon under climate warming over the past 30 years. We showed that the contribution of aged carbon has significantly increased since 2015. Approximately 70 % of DOC and POC was derived from aged carbon for QTP rivers. In Arctic waters, an average of '67 % of POC was derived from aged carbon, however, '75 % of DOC was derived from modern carbon, mainly due to low temperatures and protection by vegetation limiting the export of aged DOC. For both regions, DOC 14 C age was positively correlated with the active layer thickness, whereas the POC 14 C age was positively correlated with the mean annual ground temperature, suggesting that gradual thaw accelerated the mobilization of aged DOC while abrupt thaw facilitated the export of aged POC. Furthermore, POC 14 C age was positively correlated with the soil organic carbon density, which was attributed to well-developed pore networks facilitated aged carbon output. This study suggests that permafrost carbon release is affected by both permafrost thermal properties and soil organic carbon density, which should be considered in evaluation of permafrost carbon -climate feedback.

Black carbon (BC) mixed with non-BC components strongly absorbs visible light and leads to uncertainty in assessing the absorption enhancement (Eabs) and thus radiative forcing. Traditional Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) combined with the leading-edge only fitting (the only-SP2 method) derives BC's mixing states through Mie scattering calculations. However, errors exist in retrieved optical diameter (Dopt) and MR due to the assumption of the ideal spherical core-shell structure and the selection of the calculation parameters like density and refractive index (RI) of the components. Here, we employed a custom-developed tandem CPMA-SP2 system, which classifies fixed-mass BC to characterize the mixing state, then compared with the only-SP2 method in quantifying the mixing state and Eabs. The field measurements show that the SP2 demonstrates variability in assessing the mixing state of BC in different aging states. The thickly-coated particles with small core approaching the internally mixed state are more sensitive to the change of calculated RI. The Dopt decreases with the RI increasing, indicating that this method accurately measures both Dopt and Eabs when a reasonable refractive index is selected for calculation. However, for thinly-coated particles with moderate or large core, this method results in significant deviations in the computed Eabs (errors up to 15 %). These deviations may be caused by the various shapes of BC and systematic errors. Our results provide valuable insights into the accuracy of the SP2-retrieved Dopt and MR based on Mie calculations and highlight the importance of employing advanced techniques for further assessment of BC's mixing state.

Permafrost soils contain approximately twice the amount of carbon as the atmosphere and this carbon could be released with Arctic warming, further impacting climate. Mosses are major component of Arctic tundra ecosystems, but the environmental drivers controlling heat penetration though the moss layer and into the soil and permafrost are still debated, especially at fine spatial scales where microtopography impacts both vegetation and soil moisture. This study measured soil temperature profiles (1-15 cm), summer thaw depth, water table depth, soil moisture, and moss thickness at a fine spatial scale (2 m) together with meteorological variables to identify the most important controls on the development of the thaw depth during two Arctic summers. We found a negative relationship between the green moss thickness (up to 3 cm) and the soil temperatures at 15 cm, suggesting that mosses insulated the soil even at high volumetric water contents (>70%) in the top 5 cm. A drier top (2-3 cm) green moss layer better insulated deep (15 cm) soil layers by reducing soil thermal conductivity, even if the moss layers immediately below the top layer were saturated. The thickness of the top green moss layer had the strongest relationships with deeper soil temperatures, suggesting that the top layer had the most relevant role in regulating heat transfer into deeper soils. Further drying of the top green moss layer could better insulate the soil and prevent permafrost thawing, representing a negative feedback on climate warming, but damage or loss of the moss layer due to drought or fire could reduce its insulating effects and release carbon stored in the permafrost, representing a positive feedback to climate warming.

Soil organic matter (SOM) stability in Arctic soils is a key factor influencing carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the context of climate change. Despite numerous studies on carbon stocks in the Arctic, a significant knowledge gap remains regarding the mechanisms of SOM stabilization and their impact on the quantity and quality of SOM across different tundra vegetation types. The main aim of this study was to determine SOM characteristics in surface horizons of permafrost-affected soils covered with different tundra vegetation types (pioneer tundra, arctic meadow, moss tundra, and heath tundra) in the central part of Spitsbergen (Svalbard). Physical fractionation was used to separate SOM into POM (particulate organic matter) and MAOM (mineral-associated organic matter) fractions, while particle-size fractionation was applied to evaluate SOM distribution and composition in sand, silt, and clay fractions. The results indicate that in topsoils under heath tundra POM fractions dominate the carbon and nitrogen pools, whereas in pioneer tundra topsoils, the majority of the carbon and nitrogen are stored in MAOM fractions. Moreover, a substantial proportion of SOM is occluded within macro-and microaggregates. Furthermore, the results obtained from FTIR analysis revealed substantial differences in the chemical properties of individual soil fractions, both concerning the degree of occlusion in aggregates and across particle size fractions. This study provides clear evidence that tundra vegetation types significantly influence both the spatial distribution and chemical composition of SOM in the topsoils of central Spitsbergen.

Assessing long-term changes in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) together with Aerosol Radiative Forcing Efficiency (ARFE, defined as radiative forcing per unit visible AOD) provides critical insight into the evolving role of different aerosol species in regional climate forcing. In this study, we analyse two decades of AOD trends (2001-2020) across eight climatically diverse regions using a multivariate regression framework, and quantify species-specific radiative effects with the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model. The regions were chosen to represent contrasting trends in total AOD. Our results show that sulfate aerosols, which account for the largest share of AOD over India (similar to 36-45 %), are the primary driver of increasing AOD and associated atmospheric warming. Black carbon (BC), although contributing only a minor fraction to total AOD (2-10 %), emerges as the dominant warming agent across most regions, with particularly strong forcing signals over the Middle East. In contrast, sea-salt (SS) aerosols exert the largest cooling influence, most prominently over the Southern African (SAF) region, partially offsetting warming from absorbing species. Europe, despite an overall decline in AOD, exhibits a slight increase in SS that sustains a regional cooling effect. These findings demonstrate that species composition, vertical distribution, and optical properties govern ARFE more strongly than the total AOD magnitude alone. By linking AOD trends with species-resolved radiative forcing efficiency across multiple regions, this study advances the interpretability of ARFE as a climate indicator and highlights its potential to inform policy-relevant assessment of aerosol-driven warming and cooling.

The thermal stability of permafrost, a foundation for engineering infrastructure in cold regions, is increasingly threatened by the dual stressors of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. This study investigates the dynamics of the crushed rock revetted embankment at the Kunlun Mountain Section of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, systematically investigating the coupled impacts of climate warming and engineering activities on permafrost thermal stability using borehole temperature monitoring data (2008-2024) and climatic parameter analysis. Results show that under climate-driven effects, the study area experienced an air temperature increase of 0.2 degrees C per decade over the 2015-2024. Concurrently, the mean annual air thawing degree-days (TDD) rose by 13.8 degrees C center dot d/a, leading to active-layer thickening at a rate of 3.8 cm center dot a- 1at natural ground sites. From 2008 to 2024, the active layer had thickened by 0.7-0.8 m. At the embankment toe (BH 5), the active-layer thickening rate (3.3 cm center dot a- 1) was 25 % lower than that at the natural ground borehole (3.8 cm center dot a- 1); correspondingly, the underlying permafrost temperature increase rate at the toe (0.3 degrees C per decade) was lower than that at the natural borehole (0.5-0.6 degrees C per decade). Permafrost warming rates decreased with depth. Shallow layers (above -2 m) were significantly influenced by climate, with warming rates of 0.3-0.6 degrees C per decade. In contrast, deep layers (below -10 m) showed warming rates converging with the background atmospheric temperature trend (0.2 degrees C per decade). Thermal regime disturbance was most pronounced at horizontal distances of 3.0-5.0 m from the embankment. Nevertheless, the crushed-rock revetment maintained a permafrost table 0.6 m shallower than that of natural ground, confirming its thermal diode effect (facilitating convective cooling in winter), which partially offset climate warming impacts. This study provides critical empirical data and validates the cooling mechanism of crushed-rock revetment, which is essential for predicting the long-term thermal stability and informing adaptive maintenance strategies for railway infrastructure in warming permafrost regions.

Understanding long-term interactions between climate, permafrost, and vegetation provides an essential context for interpreting current Arctic greening. Using 65 fossil pollen records from northern Siberia and a Random Forest model trained on a dataset of 835 modern pollen-climate assemblages, we quantitatively reconstructed mean temperature of the warmest month (Mtwa: mean July temperature) anomalies over the past 40 thousand years (ka) and assessed associated vegetation changes. During the Last Glacial Period, herbaceous taxa overwhelmingly dominated, and warming of similar to 1 degrees C during similar to 40-35 cal ka BP was insufficient to deepen the active layer beyond the threshold required for tree establishment, leaving woody cover minimal. In the early Holocene, sustained warming of nearly 2 degrees C triggered permafrost degradation and active-layer thickening, enabling forest expansion, although tree taxa lagged shrubs by several millennia. These results reveal a clear threshold effect in vegetation-permafrost interactions and show that only sustained warming can overcome permafrost constraints. By providing quantitative temperature estimates, our reconstruction offers critical benchmarks for predicting how ongoing Arctic warming may transform vegetation patterns and permafrost stability.

Climate warming has impacted the sustainability of freshwater supply in the global water tower unit (WTU) zone. The rainfall infiltration process, a key component of WTUs supply, is affected by freeze-thaw cycles, yet it remains uncertain whether it has undergone corresponding changes. We propose a temperature-mediated infiltration model considering changes in soil water holding, water potential, and hydraulic conductivity due to varying degrees of freezing under negative temperature. Using this model, we calculate the infiltration of 78 WTUs globally from 1980 to 2023. Our results indicate that global WTUs have a multi-year average infiltration of 26 similar to 2359 mm/year. Notably, WTUs in the key latitudinal zone (24 degrees S-42 degrees N) contribute 54 % of the total infiltration volume, showing expanding differences in infiltration characteristics compared to other regions. While rainfall primarily influences infiltration and infiltration capacity, soil temperature and initial soil water content also significantly impact these characteristics. Enhanced infiltration capacity promotes vegetation growth, though the relationship is not linear. Variations in infiltration characteristics threaten the water resource buffering and the stability of downstream living ecological water supply of WTUs. This study provides crucial references for the integrated management of water resources and ecological conservation amid changing infiltration characteristics.

Near-surface temperature and moisture are key boundary conditions for simulating permafrost distribution, projecting its response to climate change, and evaluating the surface energy balance in alpine regions. However, in desertified permafrost zones of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the observations remain sparse, and reported trends vary considerably among sites. This lack of consistent evidence limits the ability to represent microenvironmental processes in models and to predict their influence on permafrost stability. From September 2021 to August 2024, we conducted continuous observations at a desertified permafrost site on the central QTP, covering the vertical range from 150 cm above to 100 cm below the ground surface (boundary layer). Measurements included air and ground temperature, air humidity, soil moisture, wind speed, and net radiation. Results showed that the mean annual air temperature increased with decreasing height at a gradient of approximately 0.42 degrees C/m, while mean annual air humidity remained nearly constant at 56.8 +/- 1.1 % (150-0 cm). In the near-surface soil layer (0 similar to -10 cm), temperature rose by 3.6 +/- 0.1 degrees C and moisture decreased by 34.0 +/- 2.7 %. The mean annual ground temperature increased with depth at a rate of about 0.55 degrees C/m, whereas soil moisture decreased between -20 and -60 cm (52.86 %/m) and increased between -60 and -100 cm (56.30 %/m). Seasonal patterns showed marked difference: in the freezing season, the calculated total temperature increment within the boundary layer (1.91 degrees C) was 61 % lower than the observed value (4.88 degrees C), while in the thawing season, it was 58 % higher (4.38 degrees C > 2.77 degrees C). These results reveal strong vertical gradients and seasonal contrasts in thermal and moisture regimes, emphasizing the need to integrate coupled temperature-moisture processes into boundary layer parameterizations for cold-region environments. Improved representations can enhance permafrost modeling and inform infrastructure design in regions experiencing both warming and desertification.