The state of the cryosphere in tropical regions is of great importance because the temperature around the glaciers, permafrost and snow cover always fluctuates near the melting point. These thermal conditions and their high sensitivity to climate change cause the accelerated disappearance of these elements; therefore, it is important to know the climatic factors that regulate them, as well as the physical characteristics of each cryospheric element. Unlike glaciers, permafrost and snow cover have not been widely studied. In recent decades, the study of the glacial and periglacial environment has been carried out in intertropical mountains. However, despite the altitude of their relief and the frequent occurrence of snowfall in tropical high mountains, the conditions that determine such events have been barely analyzed; and in the case of Mexico, the volume of snowfall and its thickness have not been quantified either, as well as their corresponding duration. Consequently, this work is aimed to analyze the temperature and precipitation conditions that determine the snowfall at the higher part of the Nevado de Toluca volcano; at the same time, the conditions of the cryotic climate and their possible implication on the surface are studied. The analysis of data from 1965 to 2016, using frequency statistics, allowed to realize that snowfall occurs with low intensity, its accumulation being less than 10 cm thick and 10 mm of snow water equivalent, which causes the snowpack to stay only a few weeks on average. At the same time, it was determined that there is a significant increase in the number of freeze-thaw cycles. Therefore, due to the climate conditions and their influence on the mountain surface, it is probable that the bedrock is subject to a greater gelifraction dynamics, and the unconsolidated soil surface increases; the combination of the above could cause a greater geomorphological dynamic over time, particularly due to debris flows, and by water and wind erosion of the surface. This work is intended to serve as a reference for the high mountain environment in the intertropical regions.

Changes in snow precipitation at high latitudes can significantly affect permafrost thermal conditions and thaw depth, potentially exposing more carbon-laden soil to microbial decomposition. A fully coupled process-based surface/subsurface thermal hydrology model with surface energy balance is used to analyze the impact of intra-annual variability in snow on permafrost thermal regime and the active layer thickness. In the four numerical scenarios considered, simulations were forced by the same meteorological data, except the snow precipitation, which was systematically altered to change timing of snowfall. The scenarios represent subtle shifts in snow timing, but the snow onset/melt days, the end of winter snowpack depth, and total annual snow precipitation are unchanged among scenarios. The simulations show that small shifts in the timing of snow accumulation can have significant effects on subsurface thermal conditions leading to active layer deepening and even talik formation when snowfall arrives earlier in the winter. The shifts in snow timing have a stronger impact on wetter regions, especially soil underneath small ponds, as compared to drained regions. This study highlights the importance of understanding potential changes in winter precipitation patterns for reliable projections of active-layer thickness in a changing Arctic climate.