Assessing the characteristics of runoff changes and quantifying the contribution of influencing factors to runoff changes are crucial for water resources management and sustainable development in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR). The intra-annual distribution of runoff depicted a double-peak effect. The first runoff peak in July was primarily influenced by precipitation, which did not completely flow after falling to the ground. However, some water was stored in the active layer of permafrost and released in September resulting in the second runoff peak. The contributions of precipitation and temperature to the runoff changes were 74.2% and 25.8%, respectively. The runoff peaks advanced by 15 and 6 days for the first and second peaks, respectively, owing to the influence of the cryosphere change. Principal component analysis revealed that the contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff fluctuations were 72.9% and 27.1%, respectively, during 1961-2018, indicating that hydrological processes were mainly influenced by climate change in the SRYR. The combined effect of climate change created a warm and dry trend after 1990, indicating a spatial distribution of wetness in the northwest and aridity in the southeast of the SRYR.

As an important water source and ecological barrier in the Yellow River Basin, the source region of the Yellow River (above the Huangheyan Hydrologic Station) presents a remarkable permafrost degradation trend due to climate change. Therefore, scientific understanding the effects of permafrost degradation on runoff variations is of great significance for the water resource and ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin. In this paper, we studied the mechanism and extent of the effect of degrading permafrost on surface flow in the source region of the Yellow River based on the monitoring data of temperature and moisture content of permafrost in 2013-2019 and the runoff data in 1960-2019. The following results have been found. From 2013 to 2019, the geotemperature of the monitoring sections at depths of 0-2.4 m increased by 0.16 degrees C/a on average. With an increase in the thawing depth of the permafrost, the underground water storage space also increased, and the depth of water level above the frozen layer at the monitoring points decreased from above 1.2 m to 1.2-2 m. 64.7% of the average multiyear groundwater was recharged by runoff, in which meltwater from the permafrost accounted for 10.3%. Compared to 1960-1965, the runoff depth in the surface thawing period (from May to October) and the freezing period (from November to April) decreased by 1.5 mm and 1.2 mm, respectively during 1992-1997, accounting for 4.2% and 3.4% of the average annual runoff depth, respectively. Most specifically, the decrease in the runoff depth was primarily reflected in the decreased runoff from August to December. The permafrost degradation affects the runoff within a year by changing the runoff generation, concentration characteristics and the melt water quantity from permafrost, decreasing the runoff at the later stage of the permafrost thawing. However, the permafrost degradation has limited impacts on annual runoff and does not dominate the runoff changes in the source region of the Yellow River in the longterm.

Frozen ground degradation under a warming climate profoundly influences the growth of alpine vegetation in the source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This study investigated spatiotemporal variations in the frozen ground distribution, the active layer thickness (ALT) of permafrost (PF) soil and the soil freeze depth (SFD) in seasonally frozen soil from 1980 to 2018 using the temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model and Stefan equation. We compared the effects of these variations on vegetation growth among different frozen ground types and vegetation types in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR). The results showed that approximately half of the PF area (20.37% of the SRYR) was projected to degrade into seasonally frozen ground (SFG) during the past four decades; furthermore, the areal average ALT increased by 3.47 cm/yr, and the areal average SFD decreased by 0.93 cm/yr from 1980 to 2018. Accordingly, the growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) presented an increasing trend of 0.002/10yr, and the increase rate and proportion of areas with NDVI increase were largest in the transition zone where PF degraded to SFG (the PF to SFG zone). A correlation analysis indicated that variations in ALT and SFD in the SRYR were significantly correlated with increases of NDVI in the growing season. However, a rapid decrease in SFD (< -1.4 cm/10yr) could have reduced the soil moisture and, thus, decreased the NDVI. The NDVI for most vegetation types exhibited a significant positive correlation with ALT and a negative correlation with SFD. However, the steppe NDVI exhibited a significant negative correlation with the SFD in the PF to SFG zone but a positive correlation in the SFG zone, which was mainly limited by water condition because of different change rates of the SFD.

The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is greatly important for water resources throughout the entire Yellow River Basin. Streamfiow in the SRYR has experienced great changes over the past few decades, which is closely related to the frozen ground degradation; however, the extent of this influence is, still unclear. In this study, the air freezing index (DDFa) is selected as an indicator for the degree of frozen ground degradation. A water-energy balance equation within the Budyko framework is employed to quantify the streamflow response to the direct impact of climate change, which manifests as changes in the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the impact of frozen ground degradation, which can be regarded as part of the indirect impact of climate change. The results show that the direct impact of climate change and the impact of frozen ground degradation can explain 55% and 33%, respectively, of the streamflow decrease for the entire SRYR from Period 1 (1965-1989) to Period 2 (1990-2003). In the permafrost-dominated region upstream of the Jimai hydrological station, the impact of frozen ground degradation can explain 71% of the streamflow decrease. From Period 2 (1990-2003) to Period 3 (2004-2015), the observed streamflow did not increase as much as the precipitation; this could be attributed to the combined effects of increasing potential evapotranspiration and more importantly, frozen ground degradation. Frozen ground degradation could influence streamflow by increasing the groundwater storage when the active layer thickness increases in permafrost-dominated regions. These findings will help develop a better understanding of the impact of frozen ground degradation on water resources in the Tibetan Plateau. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.