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Wildfires lead to socio-economic and environmental impacts. These impacts include hydrological instability, which can cause severe damage, especially where infrastructures are present. Post-rehabilitation measures can be useful in reducing or preventing erosion or hydrogeological risks. Decision-makers are called on to prioritize post-fire intervention areas and allocate public funds for this purpose. This work focuses on the assessment of erosion and hydrological risk potential in forested slope areas affected by wildfire using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach integrated with a GIS environment on a regional scale. Expert perception was considered using the pairwise comparison method as part of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). This allows expert stakeholders to rank relevant criteria, providing a quantitative metric (weight) for qualitative data. Two MCDA methods are used and compared: Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). Fire frequency, slope (gradient and length), and proximity to infrastructures were found to be the most important factors by the stakeholders. The WLC method provides evidence classified into high and moderate suitability class areas characterized by high values for fire frequency or slope gradient. Conversely, the OWA method, ranging from low to high risks, makes it possible to adapt the method and obtain a range of suitability maps. Novelties of the MCDA-GIS combined methodology adopted in this work are its application on a regional scale and the combination of vulnerability and driving-force factors (namely presence of grey infrastructures, fire frequency). The MCDA-GIS methodology can be suitable for public administrations in that it allows for mapping a regional area more quickly and thus facilitates sector planning.

期刊论文 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123672 ISSN: 0301-4797

Nowadays, in addition to the destruction and fragmentation of the world's habitats, invasive species, and damage caused by them, are one of the most important factors in the destruction of ecosystems. The raccoon (Procyon lotor) is a medium-sized mammal that is placed in mid-levels of the food web and can affect a wide range of species. Considering the damage done to local ecosystems by this invasive species, habitat assessment and determining the factors affecting its habitat suitability would be a key step in managing this species. In this study, using the MaxEnt model and examining 12 environmental parameters (elevation, slope, aspect, geological units, soil type, vegetation, land use, distance to villages, distance to main roads, distance to waterways, average temperature, and rainfall) in the west of Guilan Province, habitat suitability of this alien species was determined, and the most important factors affecting this suitability were investigated. Results showed that the validity value of the model (AUC) was estimated to be 0.852 and parameters such as distance to village (34.5%), elevation (24.2%), and land use (15.9%) are among the most important and effective factors. Also, the results showed that 0.60% of the study area has high suitability, 6.14% moderate, 24.87% low, and 68.36% unsuitable areas for raccoons. The overall result shows that despite the lack of vast favorable areas for this invasive species, an increase in the number and expansion of this species is very likely because of its omnivorous diet, high adaptability to different environments and conditions, as well as extensive niche. All of these factors cause raccoons to spread further in the region and consequently increase the risks and damages to the native ecosystem.

期刊论文 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.70090 ISSN: 2045-7758

The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessments of ecological niches for trees will offer fresh perspectives for sustainable development and preservation of forests, particularly within the framework of rapid climate change. Betula luminifera is a fast-growing native timber plantation species in China, but the natural resources have been severely damaged. Here, a comprehensive habitat suitability model (including ten niche-based GIS modeling algorithms) was developed that integrates three types of environmental factors, namely, climatic, soil, and ultraviolet variables, to assess the species contemporary and future distribution of suitable habitats across China. Our results suggest that the habitats of B. luminifera generally occur in subtropical areas (about 1.52 x 10(6) km(2)). However, the growth of B. luminifera is profoundly shaped by the nuances of its local environment, the most reasonable niche spaces are only 1.15 x 10(6) km(2) when limiting ecological factors (soil and ultraviolet) are considered, generally considered as the core production region. Furthermore, it is anticipated that species-suitable habitats will decrease by 10 and 8% with climate change in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Our study provided a clear understanding of species-suitable habitat distribution and identified the reasons why other niche spaces are unsuitable in the future, which can warn against artificial cultivation and conservation planning.

期刊论文 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3390/plants13111542 ISSN: 2223-7747

Increasing urbanization in Kigali is hampered by inadequate urban planning, posing significant problems such as increased vulnerability to natural disasters and population displacement. Floods are among the recurrent events in different districts of Kigali damaging standing crops and hindering human livelihoods. Addressing these challenges requires implementing research-based strategies and integrating policies for effective mitigation. This study aims to analyze potentially suitable sites for resettling flood-vulnerable communities in the Nyarugenge district, which is among the highly vulnerable areas of Kigali city. The integration of an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)-based Geographic Information System (GIS) and multicriteria decision analysis has been used to analyze different indicators of flood risk and resettlement suitability, such as elevation, slope, rainfall, land use land cover (LULC), soil texture, proximity to rivers, proximity to roads, population density, proximity to education facilities and proximity to the health center to obtain a suitability map. The result of the study showed that over 50% of the study area is high to very high suitable for resettlement, a minimal area of 22.5 km2 (17.35%) falls into moderate suitable while the remaining 23.82% having an area of 30.9 km2 is not suitable for human resettlement which proposing the relocation of 7677 existing settlements in this area and recommends flood risk mitigation strategies for 16.19 km2 (12.22%) of the flood-prone area. Subsequently, the final results were validated through the Area Under Curve (AUC) with 15 randomly selected past flood location points. The results of this study will be essential for planning and implementing any resettlement program, especially for the rest of Rwanda. Therefore, the environmental suitability and sustainability of the area in terms of socio-economic aspects have to be thoroughly analyzed.

期刊论文 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1007/s41748-024-00387-z ISSN: 2509-9426

It is proposed to build a high-speed railway through the China -Mongolia -Russia economic corridor (CMREC) which runs from Beijing to Moscow via Mongolia. However, the frozen ground in this corridor has great impacts on the infrastructure stability, especially under the background of climate warming and permafrost degradation. Based on the Bayesian Network Model (BNM), this study evaluates the suitability for engineering construction in the CMREC, by using 21 factors in five aspects of terrain, climate, ecology, soil, and frozen-ground thermal stability. The results showed that the corridor of Mongolia's Gobi and Inner Mongolia in China is suitable for engineering construction, and the corridor in Amur, Russia near the northern part of Northeast China is also suitable due to cold and stable permafrost overlaying by a thin active layer. However, the corridor near Petropavlovsk in Kazakhstan and Omsk in Russia is not suitable for engineering construction because of low freezing index and ecological vulnerability. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of influence factors indicates that the thermal stability of frozen ground has the greatest impact on the suitability of engineering construction. These conclusions can provide a reference basis for the future engineering planning, construction and risk assessment.

期刊论文 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.006 ISSN: 1674-9278

Bryophytes play important roles in high altitude-latitude ecosystem owing to their extensive geographical coverage. Particularly, the insulating effect prevent permafrost degradation with the rapidly climate warming on the QTP. However, few studies investigated how Bryophytes will react to environmental change at the global scale. In this study, a maximum entropy (Maxent) model was utilized to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Bryophytes on the QTP. Predictions were based on the under historical (years of 1970-2000) and future climate scenarios (years of 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) using the average climate data of nine global climate models (GCMs) for shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5) of CMIP6 and other environmental variables. In addition, the key environmental factors affecting the habitat distribution and range shifts of Bryophytes were examined. The results revealed that Bryophytes occupied an area of approximately 179.97 (+/- 0.87) x 10(4 )km(2), 77 (+/- 0.44)% of the total areal extent of QTP in the past. Niche suitability of the Bryophytes was dominated by soil moisture, ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Under future climate scenarios, the occupied area increased continuously towards the relatively higher elevation regions. Moreover, permafrost regions would become the buffer zone for the range shifts of niches and covers of Bryophytes on the QTP. This paper will improve our understanding of vegetable potential impact on the permafrost climate feedback.

期刊论文 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12665-021-10122-w ISSN: 1866-6280

The emergence of Russia as a major grain exporter is not only crucial for the world commercial agriculture and food security, but also for the country's economy. Here we examine the past-to-future thermal suitability for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum, L. 1753) cultivation over Russia and compare it with the recent trends of wheat yields and harvested area. The analyses use a multi-model ensemble median of the most updated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 Earth System Models (1950-2099) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Era-Interim dataset (1979-2016). Our results show that the thermal suitability has increased by similar to 10 Mha per decade since 1980. Consistently, winter wheat yields and harvested area have also increased over the last decade by similar to 0.5 t/ha and similar to 4 Mha, respectively. Moreover, a potential for the Russian wheat sector may still be exploited if we consider the abandoned land (similar to 27 Mha) after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Our results also show that the increase in heat availability and the reduction of the frost constraint will likely move the thermal suitability toward the north-western and the Far East regions. Conversely, increases of extreme heat events are projected in the southern regions of Russia, which currently represent the most productive and intensively managed wheat cultivation area. Our findings imply both opportunities and risks for the Russian wheat sector that calls for sustainable and farsighted land management strategies to comprehensively face the consequences of global warming.

期刊论文 2018-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.06.035 ISSN: 0264-8377

Cashew is usually grown as a rainfed crop in ecologically sensitive areas such as coastal belts, hilly areas and areas with high rainfall and humidity, andhence its performance mainly depends on climate. Studies on suitability of cashew cultivation in India using GIS showed that cashew grows at an elevation ranging from 0 to 1000 m above MSL. However, the productivity is the highest up to the altitude of 750 m above MSL. The average annual rainfall distribution in cashew areas ranges from low rainfall (300-600 mm in Gujarat) to high rainfall (2700-3000 mm in west coast and NEH region) but the productivity is highest in regions with a mean annual rainfall distribution of 600-1500 mm. The productivity of cashew is higher in regions where the minimum temperature ranges from 10 to 22 square C and is lower in regions where the minimum temperature drops below 10 degrees C. Unseasonal rains and heavy dew during flowering and fruiting periods are the major factors which adversely affect the nut yield. Heavy rains at the time of harvesting affects yield and quality of nuts. Cloudy conditions, high RH and heavy dewfall are favorable for outbreak of insect pests and diseases. To circumvent losses due to climate variability/change, adaptation and mitigation strategies are essential in affected areas. Some of the adaptation strategies include plant architecture, use of efficient technologies like drip irrigation, soil and moisture conservations measures, fertilizer management through fertigation, green manuring/intercropping, increase in input efficiency, pre and post-harvest management of economic produce cannot only minimize the losses but also increase the positive impacts of climate change. The flowering, fruiting, insect pest incidence in cashew crop, yield and quality of cashew nut and kernels are more vulnerable attributes for climate change. The sea water level rise due to the melting of glaciers as a result of increase in temperature may also pose problem for cashew cultivation since large proportion of cashew plantations exist in Eastern and Western Coastal regions of India. The perennial cashew crop has potential for carbon sequestration for mitigation of climate change.

期刊论文 2015-01-01
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