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It is proposed to build a high-speed railway through the China -Mongolia -Russia economic corridor (CMREC) which runs from Beijing to Moscow via Mongolia. However, the frozen ground in this corridor has great impacts on the infrastructure stability, especially under the background of climate warming and permafrost degradation. Based on the Bayesian Network Model (BNM), this study evaluates the suitability for engineering construction in the CMREC, by using 21 factors in five aspects of terrain, climate, ecology, soil, and frozen-ground thermal stability. The results showed that the corridor of Mongolia's Gobi and Inner Mongolia in China is suitable for engineering construction, and the corridor in Amur, Russia near the northern part of Northeast China is also suitable due to cold and stable permafrost overlaying by a thin active layer. However, the corridor near Petropavlovsk in Kazakhstan and Omsk in Russia is not suitable for engineering construction because of low freezing index and ecological vulnerability. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of influence factors indicates that the thermal stability of frozen ground has the greatest impact on the suitability of engineering construction. These conclusions can provide a reference basis for the future engineering planning, construction and risk assessment.

2023-04-01 Web of Science

Bryophytes play important roles in high altitude-latitude ecosystem owing to their extensive geographical coverage. Particularly, the insulating effect prevent permafrost degradation with the rapidly climate warming on the QTP. However, few studies investigated how Bryophytes will react to environmental change at the global scale. In this study, a maximum entropy (Maxent) model was utilized to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Bryophytes on the QTP. Predictions were based on the under historical (years of 1970-2000) and future climate scenarios (years of 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) using the average climate data of nine global climate models (GCMs) for shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5) of CMIP6 and other environmental variables. In addition, the key environmental factors affecting the habitat distribution and range shifts of Bryophytes were examined. The results revealed that Bryophytes occupied an area of approximately 179.97 (+/- 0.87) x 10(4 )km(2), 77 (+/- 0.44)% of the total areal extent of QTP in the past. Niche suitability of the Bryophytes was dominated by soil moisture, ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Under future climate scenarios, the occupied area increased continuously towards the relatively higher elevation regions. Moreover, permafrost regions would become the buffer zone for the range shifts of niches and covers of Bryophytes on the QTP. This paper will improve our understanding of vegetable potential impact on the permafrost climate feedback.

2022-01

Bryophytes play important roles in high altitude-latitude ecosystem owing to their extensive geographical coverage. Particularly, the insulating effect prevent permafrost degradation with the rapidly climate warming on the QTP. However, few studies investigated how Bryophytes will react to environmental change at the global scale. In this study, a maximum entropy (Maxent) model was utilized to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Bryophytes on the QTP. Predictions were based on the under historical (years of 1970-2000) and future climate scenarios (years of 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) using the average climate data of nine global climate models (GCMs) for shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5) of CMIP6 and other environmental variables. In addition, the key environmental factors affecting the habitat distribution and range shifts of Bryophytes were examined. The results revealed that Bryophytes occupied an area of approximately 179.97 (+/- 0.87) x 10(4 )km(2), 77 (+/- 0.44)% of the total areal extent of QTP in the past. Niche suitability of the Bryophytes was dominated by soil moisture, ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Under future climate scenarios, the occupied area increased continuously towards the relatively higher elevation regions. Moreover, permafrost regions would become the buffer zone for the range shifts of niches and covers of Bryophytes on the QTP. This paper will improve our understanding of vegetable potential impact on the permafrost climate feedback.

2022-01-01 Web of Science

The emergence of Russia as a major grain exporter is not only crucial for the world commercial agriculture and food security, but also for the country's economy. Here we examine the past-to-future thermal suitability for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum, L. 1753) cultivation over Russia and compare it with the recent trends of wheat yields and harvested area. The analyses use a multi-model ensemble median of the most updated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 Earth System Models (1950-2099) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Era-Interim dataset (1979-2016). Our results show that the thermal suitability has increased by similar to 10 Mha per decade since 1980. Consistently, winter wheat yields and harvested area have also increased over the last decade by similar to 0.5 t/ha and similar to 4 Mha, respectively. Moreover, a potential for the Russian wheat sector may still be exploited if we consider the abandoned land (similar to 27 Mha) after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Our results also show that the increase in heat availability and the reduction of the frost constraint will likely move the thermal suitability toward the north-western and the Far East regions. Conversely, increases of extreme heat events are projected in the southern regions of Russia, which currently represent the most productive and intensively managed wheat cultivation area. Our findings imply both opportunities and risks for the Russian wheat sector that calls for sustainable and farsighted land management strategies to comprehensively face the consequences of global warming.

2018-11-01 Web of Science

Cashew is usually grown as a rainfed crop in ecologically sensitive areas such as coastal belts, hilly areas and areas with high rainfall and humidity, andhence its performance mainly depends on climate. Studies on suitability of cashew cultivation in India using GIS showed that cashew grows at an elevation ranging from 0 to 1000 m above MSL. However, the productivity is the highest up to the altitude of 750 m above MSL. The average annual rainfall distribution in cashew areas ranges from low rainfall (300-600 mm in Gujarat) to high rainfall (2700-3000 mm in west coast and NEH region) but the productivity is highest in regions with a mean annual rainfall distribution of 600-1500 mm. The productivity of cashew is higher in regions where the minimum temperature ranges from 10 to 22 square C and is lower in regions where the minimum temperature drops below 10 degrees C. Unseasonal rains and heavy dew during flowering and fruiting periods are the major factors which adversely affect the nut yield. Heavy rains at the time of harvesting affects yield and quality of nuts. Cloudy conditions, high RH and heavy dewfall are favorable for outbreak of insect pests and diseases. To circumvent losses due to climate variability/change, adaptation and mitigation strategies are essential in affected areas. Some of the adaptation strategies include plant architecture, use of efficient technologies like drip irrigation, soil and moisture conservations measures, fertilizer management through fertigation, green manuring/intercropping, increase in input efficiency, pre and post-harvest management of economic produce cannot only minimize the losses but also increase the positive impacts of climate change. The flowering, fruiting, insect pest incidence in cashew crop, yield and quality of cashew nut and kernels are more vulnerable attributes for climate change. The sea water level rise due to the melting of glaciers as a result of increase in temperature may also pose problem for cashew cultivation since large proportion of cashew plantations exist in Eastern and Western Coastal regions of India. The perennial cashew crop has potential for carbon sequestration for mitigation of climate change.

2015-01-01 Web of Science
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