Northeastern China (NEC) is the largest grain base in China. Improving understanding of the effect of climate change on grain production over NEC is conducive to providing immediate response strategies for grain production. In this study, the relationships of the maize production with the dry state during the different maize growth stage have been investigated using the year-to-year increment method. Results showed that the severe drought that occurred from the jointing to maturity period have exerted severe effects on the maize growth. Further analysis indicated that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over North Atlantic and Maritime Continent in later spring are the important factors affecting the summer droughts over NEC. The late spring SST anomaly over North Atlantic can excite the Rossby waves from the western North Atlantic and propagate eastward to NEC. The snow anomaly over western Siberia in late spring and the soil moisture anomaly over NEC in summer are key factors linking the SST anomaly to drought over the NEC. On the other hand, the Maritime Continent SST anomaly in late spring can modulate the activity of the East Asian jet stream via the East AsiaPacific (EAP) teleconnection, which can provide the favorable conditions for the soil moisture reduction over NEC. Eventually, a predictive model for maize yield over NEC is successfully developed by using the predictive indices of the North Atlantic and the Maritime Continental SST during late spring. Both the cross-validation and independent sample tests show that the calibrated prediction model is robust and exhibits high skill in predicting maize yield over NEC.

In Central Asia, the ground thermal regime is strongly affected by the interplay between topographic factors and ecosystem properties. In this study, we investigate the governing factors of the ground thermal regime in an area in Central Mongolia, which features discontinuous permafrost and is characterized by grassland and forest ecosystems. Miniature temperature dataloggers were used to measure near-surface temperatures at c. 100 locations throughout the 6 km2 large study area, with the goal to obtain a sample of sites that can represent the variability of different topographic and ecosystem properties. Mean annual near-surface ground temperatures showed a strong variability, with differences of up to 8 K. The coldest sites were all located in forests on north-facing slopes, while the warmest sites are located on steep south-facing slopes with sparse steppe vegetation. Sites in forests show generally colder near-surface temperatures in spring, summer and fall compared to grassland sites, but they are warmer during the winter season. The altitude of the measurement sites did not play a significant role in determining the near-surface temperatures, while especially solar radiation was highly correlated. In addition, we investigated the suitability of different hyperspectral indices calculated from Sentinel-2 as predictors for annual average near-surface ground temperatures. We found that especially indices sensitive to vegetation properties, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), show a strong correlation. The presented observations provide baseline data on the spatiotemporal patterns of the ground thermal regime which can be used to train or validate modelling and remote sensing approaches targeting the impacts of climate change.

Global warming has shown an Arctic amplification effect in recent decades, leading to pronounced changes in pan-Arctic soil surface temperature (SST). SST plays a direct role in energy exchange between soil and atmosphere and serves as an indicator of the land-atmosphere energy balance. Remote sensing land surface temperature (LST) data is able to indicate near-surface temperature, but influences from environment factors, such as vegetation and snow, can introduce biases between LST and SST. In this study, the importances of five environment factors (vegetation, snow, surface soil composition, topography, and solar radiation) to monthly mean SST estimation from MODIS LST in pan-Arctic were analyzed. Then a method for pan-Arctic monthly mean SST estimation from MODIS LST by incorporating these environment factors and monthly-based modeling based on random forest (RF) algorithm was proposed. The results reveal that all the selected environment factors contribute to monthly-based modeling, with vegetation exerting the greatest importance from May to October and snow in March and April. The root mean square error (RMSE) of pan-Arctic monthly SST estimated by the proposed method from 2003 to 2022 ranges from 0.89 to 1.88 degrees C, which is a 42.95---53.35 % reduction compared to the widely used season-based multivariate linear regression (MLR) models based solely on LST (RMSE between 1.56 and 4.03 degrees C). The accuracy is notably improved in areas with lower and no vegetation (grassy woodlands, grasslands, permanent wetlands, and barrens) in the cold season (September to the following April), and in higher vegetation (forests) areas in the warm season (May to August). The proposed method can contribute to producing high-precision monthly mean SST data from LST, estimating permafrost extent and active layer thickness, and understanding the land-atmosphere energy balance in pan-Arctic.

Permafrost in High Mountain Asia (HMA) is becoming increasingly vulnerable to thaw due to climate change. However, the lack of either in situ ground surface or borehole temperature data beyond the Tibetan Plateau prevents comprehensive assessments of its impact on the regional hydrologic cycle and local cascading hazards. Although past studies have generated estimates of permafrost extent in Central Asia, many are limited to the Tibetan Plateau, excluding the more remote reaches of the Tien Shan, Pamirs, and Himalayas. By leveraging surface temperatures from both the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder (AIRS), this study advances further understanding of remotely sensed permafrost occurrence at high altitudes, which are prone to error due to frequent cloud cover. We demonstrate that the fusion of MODIS and AIRS products can accurately estimate long-term thermal regimes of the subsurface, with reported correlation coefficients of 0.773 and 0.560, RMSEs of 0.890 degree celsius and 0.680 degree celsius, and biases of 0.003 degree celsius and 0.462 degree celsius, respectively, for the ground surface and the depth of zero annual amplitude, during a reference period of 2003-2016. Furthermore, we provide a range of possible permafrost extents based on established equations for calculating the temperature at the top of the permafrost to demonstrate temperature sensitivity to soil moisture and snow cover. The MODIS-AIRS product is recommended to be a robust source of ground temperature estimates, which may be sufficient for inferring mountain permafrost presence in HMA. Incorporating the influence of soil moisture and snow depth, although limited by biased estimates, also produces estimates of permafrost regional areas comparable to previously reported permafrost indices. A total permafrost area of 1.69 (+/- 0.32) million km(2) is estimated for the entire HMA, across 15 mountain subregions.

Scientific innovation is overturning conventional paradigms of forest, water, and energy cycle interactions. This has implications for our understanding of the principal causal pathways by which tree, forest, and vegetation cover (TFVC) influence local and global warming/cooling. Many identify surface albedo and carbon sequestration as the principal causal pathways by which TFVC affects global warming/cooling. Moving toward the outer latitudes, in particular, where snow cover is more important, surface albedo effects are perceived to overpower carbon sequestration. By raising surface albedo, deforestation is thus predicted to lead to surface cooling, while increasing forest cover is assumed to result in warming. Observational data, however, generally support the opposite conclusion, suggesting surface albedo is poorly understood. Most accept that surface temperatures are influenced by the interplay of surface albedo, incoming shortwave (SW) radiation, and the partitioning of the remaining, post-albedo, SW radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the extent to which the avoidance of sensible heat formation is first and foremost mediated by the presence (absence) of water and TFVC is not well understood. TFVC both mediates the availability of water on the land surface and drives the potential for latent heat production (evapotranspiration, ET). While latent heat is more directly linked to local than global cooling/warming, it is driven by photosynthesis and carbon sequestration and powers additional cloud formation and top-of-cloud reflectivity, both of which drive global cooling. TFVC loss reduces water storage, precipitation recycling, and downwind rainfall potential, thus driving the reduction of both ET (latent heat) and cloud formation. By reducing latent heat, cloud formation, and precipitation, deforestation thus powers warming (sensible heat formation), which further diminishes TFVC growth (carbon sequestration). Large-scale tree and forest restoration could, therefore, contribute significantly to both global and surface temperature cooling through the principal causal pathways of carbon sequestration and cloud formation. We assess the cooling power of forest cover at both the local and global scales. Our differentiated approach based on the use of multiple diagnostic metrics suggests that surface albedo effects are typically overemphasized at the expense of top-of-cloud reflectivity. Our analysis suggests that carbon sequestration and top-of-cloud reflectivity are the principal drivers of the global cooling power of forests, while evapotranspiration moves energy from the surface into the atmosphere, thereby keeping sensible heat from forming on the land surface. While deforestation brings surface warming, wetland restoration and reforestation bring significant cooling, both at the local and the global scale.image

The absence of vegetation in most ice-free areas of Antarctica makes the soil surface very sensitive to atmosphere dynamics, especially in the western sector of the Antarctic Peninsula, an area within the limits of the permafrost zone. To evaluate the possible effects of regional warming on frozen soils, we conducted an analysis of ground surface temperatures (GSTs) from 2007 to 2021 from different monitoring sites in Livingston and Deception islands (South Shetlands archipelago, Antarctica). The analysis of the interannual evolution of the GST and their daily regimes and the freezing and thawing indexes reveals that climate change is showing impacts on seasonal and perennially frozen soils. Freezing Degree Days (FDD) have decreased while Thawing Degree Day (TDD) have increased during the study period, resulting in a balance that is already positive at the sites at lower elevations. Daily freeze-thaw cycles have been rare and absent since 2014. Meanwhile, the most common thermal regimes are purely frozen - F1 (daily temperatures = +0.5 degrees C). A decrease in F1 days has been observed, while the IS and T1 days increased by about 60 days between 2007 and 2021. The annual number of days with snow cover increased between 2009 and 2014 and decreased since then. The GST and the daily thermal regimes evolution point to general heating, which may be indicative of the degradation of the frozen soils in the study area.

Atmospheric conditions, topsoil properties and land cover conditions play essential roles in ground surface temperature (GST), surface air temperature (SAT) and their differences (GST-SAT). They determine the strength of the thermal forcing of the lower atmospheric boundary and the distributions of frozen ground in cold regions. However, the relative importance of these factors at various time scales and the underlying physical mechanisms remain less well understood. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of GST-SAT and examine 11 potential factors in three categories in influencing the GST-SAT variations from 1983 to 2019 over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using boosted regression tree models. The results show that the TP has experienced asynchronous warming in GST and SAT since 2001: a warming hiatus in SAT but continued warming in GST, resulting in a significantly increasing trend in GST-SAT. The relative importance of the three categories that influence the GSTSAT spatial variation was: atmospheric variables (56.1 %) > shallow soil properties (24.4 %) > interfacial land cover features (19.5 %). The importance of the factors also varied with the combinations of annual, seasonal, daily, day-time and night-time time scales, manifested by positive or negative effects. The interdecadal changes of net radiation, precipitation, wind speed and soil moisture amplified the asynchronous warming between air and shallow ground over the TP since the 2000s. These findings provide an in-depth understanding of the spatiotemporal variations of GST-SAT and the underlying mechanisms. This study will benefit the development of the Earth system models on the TP.

Polar amplification appears in response to greenhouse gas forcing, which has become a focus of climate change research. However, polar amplification has not been systematically investigated over the Earth's three poles (the Arctic, Antarctica, and the Third Pole). An index of polar amplification is employed, and the annual and seasonal variations of land surface temperature over the Earth's three poles are examined using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) observations for the period 2001-2018. As expected, the warming of the Arctic is most conspicuous, followed by the Third Pole, and is weakest in Antarctica. Compared to the temperature changes for the global land region, positive polar amplification appears in the Arctic and the Third Pole on an annual scale, whereas Antarctic amplification disappears, with a negative amplification index of -0.72. The polar amplification for the Earth's three poles shows seasonal differences. Strong Arctic amplification appears in boreal spring and winter, with a surface warming rate of more than 3.40 times the global mean for land regions. In contrast, the amplification of the Third Pole is most conspicuous in boreal summer. The two poles located in the Northern Hemisphere have the weakest amplification in boreal autumn. Differently from the positive amplification for the Arctic and the Third Pole in all seasons, the faster variations in Antarctic temperature compared to the globe only appear in austral autumn and winter, and the amplification signal is negative in these seasons, with an amplification index of -1.68 and -2.73, respectively. In the austral winter, the strong negative amplification concentrates on West Antarctica and the coast of East Antarctica, with an absolute value of amplification index higher than 5 in general. Generally, the polar amplification is strongest in the Arctic except from June to August, and Antarctic amplification is the weakest among the Earth's three poles. The Earth's three poles are experiencing drastic changes, and the potential influence of climate change should receive attention.

The high-resolution permafrost distribution maps have a closer relationship with engineering applications in cold regions because they are more relative to the real situation compared with the traditional permafrost zoning mapping. A particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to obtain the index eta with 30 m resolution and to characterize the distribution probability of permafrost at the field scale. The index consists of five environmental variables: slope position, slope, deviation from mean elevation, topographic diversity, and soil bulk density. The downscaling process of the surface frost number from a resolution of 1000 m to 30 m is achieved by using the spatial weight decomposition method and index eta. We established the regression statistical relationship between the surface frost number after downscaling and the temperature at the freezing layer that is below the permafrost active layer base. We simulated permafrost temperature distribution maps with 30 m resolution in the four periods of 2003-2007, 2008-2012, 2013-2017, and 2018-2021, and the permafrost area is, respectively, 28.35 x 10(4) km(2), 35.14 x 10(4) km(2), 28.96 x 10(4) km(2), and 25.21 x 10(4) km(2). The proportion of extremely stable permafrost (< -5.0 degrees C), stable permafrost (-3.0 similar to -5.0 degrees C), sub-stable permafrost (-1.5 similar to -3.0 degrees C), transitional permafrost (-0.5 similar to -1.5 degrees C), and unstable permafrost (0 similar to -0.5 degrees C) is 0.50-1.27%, 6.77-12.45%, 29.08-33.94%, 34.52-39.50%, and 19.87-26.79%, respectively, with sub-stable, transitional, and unstable permafrost mainly distributed. Direct and indirect verification shows that the permafrost temperature distribution maps after downscaling still have high reliability, with 83.2% of the residual controlled within the range of +/- 1 degrees C and the consistency ranges from 83.17% to 96.47%, with the identification of permafrost sections in the highway engineering geological investigation reports of six highway projects. The maps are of fundamental importance for engineering planning and design, ecosystem management, and evaluation of the permafrost change in the future in Northeast China.

Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) dynamics have been increasingly used to study various geophysical processes. This review provides an extensive overview of the applications of LST in the context of global change. By filtering a selection of relevant keywords, a total of 164 articles from 14 international journals published during the last two decades were analyzed based on study location, research topic, applied sensor, spatio-temporal resolution and scale and employed analysis methods. It was revealed that China and the USA were the most studied countries and those that had the most first author affiliations. The most prominent research topic was the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), while the research topics related to climate change were underrepresented. MODIS was by far the most used sensor system, followed by Landsat. A relatively small number of studies analyzed LST dynamics on a global or continental scale. The extensive use of MODIS highly determined the study periods: A majority of the studies started around the year 2000 and thus had a study period shorter than 25 years. The following suggestions were made to increase the utilization of LST time series in climate research: The prolongation of the time series by, e.g., using AVHRR LST, the better representation of LST under clouds, the comparison of LST to traditional climate change measures, such as air temperature and reanalysis variables, and the extension of the validation to heterogenous sites.