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This study examines permafrost thermal regimes and hydrological responses to climate change in the Navarro Valley, Chile's Dry Central Andes, using a decade of ground temperature data (2013-2022) from two rock glaciers-RG1 (3805 m) and RG2 (4047 m)-alongside short-term meltwater conductivity records, meteorological data, and long-term streamflow records. We assess permafrost stability and climatic sensitivity by analyzing thermal offset data (2017-2022) and ground temperature trends. Both sites show sustained warming, but RG1 exhibits accelerated warming (+ 2.84 degrees C/decade), frequent freeze-thaw cycles, and extended thaw periods, indicating a transitional regime. In contrast, RG2 shows fewer freeze-thaw cycles and greater thermal buffering, consistent with cold permafrost. The statistical model overestimated thaw dynamics at RG2, highlighting the importance of field-based data for accurate classification. Hydrological signals at RG1-including cold, mineralized meltwater and rapid ground surface temperature stream coupling-are attributed to thawing and deeper flowpaths. Conductivity data (2014-2015) reveal solute pulses consistent with early melt events and debris interaction. Meanwhile, long-term streamflow trends indicate declining discharge. These findings suggest feedback between permafrost loss and water availability. This study underscores the divergent evolution of adjacent rock glaciers under warming by integrating thermal, hydrological, and climatic data. RG1 shows signs of degradation, while RG2 may act as a temporary refuge. Continued monitoring is essential for managing water security in vulnerable mountain regions like the Dry Andes.Graphical AbstractThis graphical abstract visually summarizes a ten-year monitoring effort of mountain permafrost and glacier hydrology in the Navarro Valley, Dry Andes (32 degrees S), with implications for water security under climate change. The left panel situates the study area within the upper Aconcagua Basin, identifying two instrumented sites within the Tres Gemelos rock glacier complex-RG1 (3805 m) and RG2 (4047 m)-and an automatic weather station. These sites were selected for continuous monitoring of ground temperature and streamflow to assess permafrost behavior in a water-stressed mountain catchment. Moving to the center, the image presents an integrated monitoring framework that links temperature-depth profiles, surface-subsurface thermal dynamics, and discharge records. Key indicators such as freeze-thaw cycle counts and thawed-day metrics are used to classify thermal regimes and detect warming trends. The upper-right panel features a conceptual model that connects permafrost degradation to hydrological responses: RG1, characterized as transitional, shows signs of enhanced shallow flow and seasonal meltwater pulses, while RG2 retains cold, thermally buffered conditions that support greater storage stability. These contrasts are further illustrated by temperature trend graphs, which reveal faster warming at RG1 (+ 2.84 degrees C/decade) compared to RG2 (+ 1.92 degrees C/decade), as well as increased thaw metrics. Below, a long-term streamflow graph (1970-2023) documents declining discharge, visually supported by a field photo of a dry riverbed. The bottom panel summarizes the study's key finding: RG1 and RG2 are evolving along divergent thermal and hydrological trajectories, underscoring the need for high-resolution monitoring to guide water resource planning in an era of warming and drought.

期刊论文 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1007/s41748-025-00748-2 ISSN: 2509-9426

Climate change is influencing traditionally stable factors such as meteorological characteristics and soil conditions, impacting the planning process of electrical energy grids, especially energy cables. Supported by real-life data from the metropolitan region of Hamburg, this study examines the sensitivity of electric energy cables to seasonal and climate related changes, aiming to address inevitable future climate impacts. Using the thermal impedance model by the International Electrotechnical Commission, combined with 32 years of local soil and weather data, permissible current levels were calculated for a specific cable configuration. Comparisons with static boundaries reveal that shifts in environmental conditions can undermine the planning process, affecting maximum current limits and casting doubt on the current method's validity. Analysis shows that seasonal transitions significantly alter soil parameters within each annual cycle, causing up to a 10 % variation in energy transfer potential, depending on soil, cable, and regional specifics. Static standards also overestimate ampacity by up to 12 % for the studied region and timeframe. Climate change leads to shifting soil and weather conditions, causing unused energy transfer capacities, overestimations, and potential structural damage. As climate effects intensify, both seasonal and historical shifts are expected to have greater impacts, highlighting the limitations of the current static planning model without additional monitoring systems. As limited transmission capacities increasingly demand costly congestion management and equipment redundancies diminish, the need to optimize current resources and plan for a changing future becomes even more critical.

期刊论文 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115348 ISSN: 1364-0321

This study presents the long-term temperature monitoring in the Russian Altai Mountains. In contrast to the Mongolian and Chinese parts, the modern temperature regime of the Russian Altai remains unclear. The complexity of a comprehensive understanding of permafrost conditions in the Russian Altai is related to the high dis of the terrain, the paucity of the latest observational data, and the sparse population of permafrost areas. The general objective of this study is to determine the temperature regime on the surface, in the active layer, and in the zero annual amplitude (ZAA) layer, based on the known patterns of permafrost distribution in the region. Using automatic measuring equipment (loggers), we obtained information on the temperature of frozen and thawed ground within the altitudes from 1484 to 2879 m a. s. l. during the period from 2014 to 2020. An array of 15 loggers determined the temperature regime of bare and vegetated areas within watersheds, slopes, and valleys. N-factor parameters and surface temperature are similar to those in the Mongolian Altai, but the mean annual ground temperature at the depth of 1 m has a wide range of fluctuations (more than 32 degrees C) based on research results, and we allocated it into three groups based on altitudinal zonality. Snow cover has a strong influence on the temperature regime, but the determination of the fine-scale variability requires additional study. Ground temperature regime during the observation period remained stable, but continued monitoring allows a more detailed assessment of the response to climatic changes.

期刊论文 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11629-021-6902-4 ISSN: 1672-6316

A quantification of rock weathering by freeze-thaw processes in alpine rocks requires at least rock temperature data in high temporal resolution, in high quality, and over a sufficient period of time. In this study up to nine years of rock temperature data (2006-2015) from eleven rock monitoring sites in two of the highest mountain ranges of Austria were analyzed. Data were recorded at a half-hourly or hourly logging interval and at rock depths of 3, 10, and 30-40 cm. These data have been used to quantify mean conditions, ranges, and relationships of the potential near-surface weathering by freeze-thaw action considering volumetric-expansion of ice and ice segregation. For the former, freeze-thaw cycles and effective freeze-thaw cycles for frost shattering have been considered. For the latter, the intensity and duration of freezing events as well as time within the frost cracking window' have been analyzed. Results show that the eleven sites are in rather extreme topoclimatic positions and hence represent some of the highest and coolest parts of Austria and therefore the Eastern Alps. Only four sites are presumably affected by permafrost. Most sites are influenced by a long-lasting seasonal snow cover. Freeze-thaw cycles and effective freeze-thaw cycles for frost shattering are mainly affecting the near-surface and are unimportant at few tens of centimeters below the rock surface. The lowest temperatures during freezing events and the shortest freezing events have been quantified at all eleven monitoring sites very close to the surface. The time within the frost cracking window decreases in most cases from the rock surface inwards apart from very cold years/sites with very low temperatures close to the surface. As shown by this study and predicted climate change scenarios, assumed warmer rock temperature conditions in the future at alpine rock walls in Austria will lead to less severe freezing events and to shorter time periods within the frost-cracking window. Statistical correlation analyses showed furthermore that the longer the duration of the seasonal snow cover, the fewer are freeze-thaw cycles, the fewer are effective freeze-thaw cycles, the longer is the mean and the maximum duration of freezing events, and the lower is the mean annual ground temperature. The interaction of the winter snow cover history and the winter thermal regime has a complex effect on the duration of the frost cracking window but also on the number of freeze-thaw cycles as shown by a conceptual model. Predicted future warmer and snow-depleted winters in the European Alps will therefore have a complex impact on the potential weathering of alpine rocks by frost action which makes potential weathering predictions difficult. Neglecting rock moisture and rock properties in determining rock weathering limits the usefulness of solely rock temperature data. However, rock temperature data allow getting an estimate about potential weathering by freeze-thaw action which is often substantially more than previously known. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

期刊论文 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.08.020 ISSN: 0169-555X

This paper presents up to eight years (2006-2014) of data that address geomorphic and nival processes at the rooting zone of the active Hinteres Langtalkar Rock Glacier, Hohe Tauern Range, Austria. We used a remote digital camera system which took daily images from the main rooting zone of the rock glacier and the rockwall above. 1,383 images were available for the analysis. Rock temperature monitored at three shallow borehole sites and an automatic weather station allowed the assessment of potential weathering rates. Climate data from a nearby meteorological observatory were additionally used to consider long-term changes. Results indicate that neither snow and ice nor sediments have been transported in large quantities to the rock glacier system during the observation period. Notable mass movement was only detected during six events (3 rockfalls, 3 debris flows). Perennial snow patches in the rooting zone of the rock glacier were observed in 4 out of 9 years. Diurnal freeze-thaw cycles (FTC) occurred twice as often at the south-facing rockwall site compared with the north-facing site. Effective FTC (i.e. heating > 2 degrees C and subsequent cooling < -2 degrees C) are only relevant at the south-facing site. The duration of the frost-cracking-window (temperature -3 to -6 degrees C) is about 10 times longer at the north-exposed rockwall. Permafrost is sparse at the south-facing slopes whereas widespread at the north-facing slopes overlooking the rock glacier. These observations suggest that segregation ice formation is more relevant for rock weathering at the north-facing rockwall producing larger clasts. In contrast, volumetric expansion during freezing might be the major control for rock weathering at the south-facing rockwall forming smaller debris. However, highly variable snow cover conditions in the rockwalls above the rock glacier influence substantially the thermal regime and hence potential bedrock weathering. We conclude that the present rate of rock glacier nourishment is not in equilibrium with the mass transport (sediment and ice) of the rapidly moving and disintegrating rock glacier. The studied rock glacier is in a state of detachment from its sediment and ice source. Topographical data further support a generally negative mass balance of the rock glacier during at least the last six decades.

期刊论文 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.1127/zfg_suppl/2016/00245 ISSN: 0372-8854

It is very important to analyze the change of the active layer and the permafrost thermal regime for Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Formerly, there is only few data of monitoring to analyze the response of the active layer and the permafrost to climate change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The monitoring data of the permafrost thermal regime with seven sites from 1995 to 2000 make it possible to analyze this response relationship. The monitoring data is used to analyze the recent change in the thickness of active layer, the subsurface temperature, the near permafrost surface temperature, and the permafrost temperature at the depth of 6 or 8 m. The results show that their changes have a better accordance with air temperature change. The climate change has an impact on the change of the active layer and the thermal regime of the permafrost. The change of the active layer and the thermal regime of the permafrost can indirectly explain some features of climate change. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

期刊论文 2004-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0165-232X(03)00064-8 ISSN: 0165-232X
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